Short Trade on ASTER (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1060.8 ASTER at 0.595$ per unit. Take profit: 0.5759 (3.16 %) & Stop Loss: 0.6023 (1.28 %)
29 Jul 2026 at 23:12:12
hyperliquid
ASTER
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Jul 2026 23:12
→ 06:40
· 7 hours
Position
Entry 0.5947$
Qty 1060.7955 ASTER
Size 630.8763$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.5759 (+3.16%)
TP $ 19.94$
SL 0.6023 (-1.28%)
SL $ 8.06$
RR 2.47
Status
loss
PnL
-1.28%
/ -8.06$
MAE -2.45%
MFE +0.04%
0.0R
expires
30 Jul 11:12
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 53025)
#7 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 23:00
score du 29/07/2026 23:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5524
Quality Score
0.545
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#7 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.28 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#7 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.28 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -5.98×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 23:02
29/07 23:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 29/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 29/07 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) 29/07 22:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1155
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.67
Transition risk :
0.33
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.80
Snapshot évalué :
29/07 23:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
29/07/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.5445
Score SMA
0.5113
Rank
#7
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5524
Rank Norm SMA
0.6419
Calculé le
29/07/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3806 | r1h: -0.146% · r4h: -0.656% · r1d: -3.68% · r3d: -5.87% · ema21_slope: -0.1107% · dist_ema21: -1.124% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3748 | rs_1h: -0.215% · rs_4h: -1.233% · rs_1d: -4.21% · rs_3d: -4.54% · beta_24h: 0.600 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5433 | rvol_20: 1.75× · zscore_50: 0.479 · trend: 33.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8531 | ADX: 46.6 (trend) · Chop: 42.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.796% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.278%
(0.0076)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -0.397% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -0.797% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -1.041% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -1.702% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.039% | 0.0R | -2.450% | 1.9R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -2.736% | 2.1R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.06
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -6.0ATR | — | 0.50 | bear_high | -5.16% | -0.50 | 29/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
48%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.49 | range_high | +0.00% | -0.43 | 29/07 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.38 | range_medium | +0.09% | -0.12 | 29/07 22:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | normal | bear_low |
50%
|
noisy_chop 47% | early | — | — | 0.42 | range_low | +0.49% | -0.17 | 29/07 22:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 16b | — | 2.852×ATR | p15 | -1.484×ATR | p98 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 4.084×ATR | p79 | -1.169×ATR | p93 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.336×ATR | p0 | -0.472×ATR | p53 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 11b | — | 0.629×ATR | p3 | +0.089×ATR | p8 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7404
- reason: down_bo width=1.73×ATR dur=24b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.60226151
- tp_price: 0.57586623
- atr:
- score: 0.74041278631557
- expires_at: 2026-07-30T15:12:05.042538
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.74041278631557
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0391
- obi_top10 : 0.0741
- micro_price : 0.59368287
- spread_pct : 0.016846
- mid_price : 0.59365
- bid_wall_price : 0.589
- bid_wall_size : 299914
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.595
- ask_wall_size : 246705
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.031
- obi_top5_std : 0.0071
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7101
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.605705
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.597915
- balance_zone_mid:
0.60181
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785297600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785380400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.7253
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
24
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7404
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785369600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.597915
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7083
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
3
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.7076
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.0045151 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
24
inside_close_ratio
0.7083
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
0.7076
Signaux confirmants (17)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:12 | 0.59472000 | +0.003% |
| 2 | 23:18 | 0.59472000 | +0.003% |
| 3 | 23:23 | 0.59474000 | +0.007% |
| 4 | 23:29 | 0.59474000 | +0.007% |
| 5 | 23:35 | 0.59474000 | +0.007% |
| 6 | 23:40 | 0.59589000 | +0.2% |
| 7 | 23:46 | 0.59589000 | +0.2% |
| 8 | 23:52 | 0.59589000 | +0.2% |
| 9 | 23:57 | 0.59589000 | +0.2% |
| 10 | 00:04 | 0.59589000 | +0.2% |
| 11 | 00:10 | 0.59657000 | +0.314% |
| 12 | 00:16 | 0.59657000 | +0.314% |
| 13 | 00:22 | 0.59679000 | +0.351% |
| 14 | 00:28 | 0.59679000 | +0.351% |
| 15 | 00:33 | 0.59679000 | +0.351% |
| 16 | 00:38 | 0.59766000 | +0.498% |
| 17 | 00:43 | 0.59766000 | +0.498% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7101ms
Confidence avant OB :
74%
→
74%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.039
avg -0.031
± 0.007
OBI Top 10
0.074
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.5937
Micro Price
0.5937
Spread
0.0168%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.5890
Size
299,914.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.5950
Size
246,705.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5947 | 0.6023 | 0.5759 | 2.47 | 0.6517 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.5947
- Stop Loss: 0.6023
- Take Profit: 0.5759
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6023 - 0.5947 = 0.0075999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.5947 - 0.5759 = 0.0188
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0188 / 0.0075999999999999 = 2.4737
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 630.8763 | 100 | 1060.7955 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0075999999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0075999999999999 = 1052.63
Taille de position USD = 1052.63 x 0.5947 = 626
Donc, tu peux acheter 1052.63 avec un stoploss a 0.6023
Avec un position size USD de 626$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1052.63 x 0.0075999999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1052.63 x 0.0188 = 19.79
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.79$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1052.63
- Taille de position USD 626
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.79
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4737
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.16 % | 19.94 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.28 % | 8.06 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.06 $ | -1.28 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.505 % | 117.76 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5947 | 0.6023 | 0.5759 | 2.47 | 0.6517 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.5947
- Stop Loss: 0.6023
- Take Profit: 0.5759
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6023 - 0.5947 = 0.0075999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.5947 - 0.5759 = 0.0188
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0188 / 0.0075999999999999 = 2.4737
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.278%
(0.0076)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -0.397% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -0.797% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -1.041% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -1.702% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.039% | 0.0R | -2.450% | 1.9R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.039% | 0.0R | -2.736% | 2.1R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
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