Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 114.84 AVAX at 6.407$ per unit. Take profit: 6.2332 (2.72 %) & Stop Loss: 6.4771 (1.09 %)
30 Jul 2026 at 23:06:37
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
30 Jul 2026 23:06
→ 06:55
· 7 hours
Position
Entry 6.4074$
Qty 114.8386 AVAX
Size 735.8168$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 6.2332 (+2.72%)
TP $ 20$
SL 6.4771 (-1.09%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.09%
/ -8$
MAE -1.77%
MFE +1.18%
1.1R
expires
31 Jul 11:06
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 54085)
#35 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/07/2026 23:00
score du 30/07/2026 23:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4147
Quality Score
0.470
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#35 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.09 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#35 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.09 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 3.22×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.43×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/07 23:00
30/07 23:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 30/07 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 30/07 22:00 Score : +4 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1179
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
30/07 23:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
30/07/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.4702
Score SMA
0.4830
Rank
#35
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4147
Rank Norm SMA
0.4465
Calculé le
30/07/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4729 | r1h: -0.789% · r4h: -0.414% · r1d: -0.92% · r3d: 0.25% · ema21_slope: 0.0036% · dist_ema21: -0.374% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4765 | rs_1h: -0.273% · rs_4h: 0.560% · rs_1d: -0.98% · rs_3d: -1.39% · beta_24h: 0.558 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2483 | rvol_20: 0.53× · zscore_50: -0.486 · trend: 6.40% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3968 | ADX: 12.0 (weak) · Chop: 63.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.730% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.088%
(0.0697)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.891% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.074% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.219% | 0.2R | -1.074% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.219% | 0.2R | -1.767% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.180% | 1.1R | -1.767% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.180% | 1.1R | -1.767% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.48
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.77 | bear_high | -4.03% | -0.32 | 30/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | normal | range_high |
35%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | near -0.7ATR | 0.71 | range_high | +0.33% | -0.14 | 30/07 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_medium |
55%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | — | — | 0.64 | range_medium | -0.24% | -0.04 | 30/07 22:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.58% | +0.04 | 30/07 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 27b | — | 2.478×ATR | p0 | -0.221×ATR | p25 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 11b | — | 1.653×ATR | p0 | +0.214×ATR | p21 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 2.428×ATR | p47 | -0.528×ATR | p54 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 4.735×ATR | p78 | -1.126×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.9249
- reason: down_bo width=2.38×ATR dur=34b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 6.47706299
- tp_price: 6.23324253
- atr:
- score: 0.92488870955996
- expires_at: 2026-07-31T15:06:29.793406
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.92488870955996
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0957
- obi_top10 : 0.0442
- micro_price : 6.40374636
- spread_pct : 0.015618
- mid_price : 6.4035
- bid_wall_price : 6.32
- bid_wall_size : 90668.8
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 6.47
- ask_wall_size : 99675.9
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0997
- obi_top5_std : 0.0026
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6821
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
6.52715
- balance_zone_bottom:
6.4178
- balance_zone_mid:
6.472475
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785348000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785466800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3834
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
34
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9249
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785463200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
6.4178
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7941
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2267
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.04587988 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
34
inside_close_ratio
0.7941
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2267
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:06 | 6.40740000 | 0% |
| 2 | 23:12 | 6.40740000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6821ms
Confidence avant OB :
92%
→
92%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.096
avg 0.100
± 0.003
OBI Top 10
0.044
Microstructure
Mid Price
6.4035
Micro Price
6.4037
Spread
0.0156%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
6.3200
Size
90,668.80
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
6.4700
Size
99,675.90
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4074 | 6.4771 | 6.2332 | 2.5 | 8.3708 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.4074
- Stop Loss: 6.4771
- Take Profit: 6.2332
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4771 - 6.4074 = 0.0697
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.4074 - 6.2332 = 0.1742
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1742 / 0.0697 = 2.4993
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 735.8168 | 100 | 114.8386 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0697
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0697 = 114.78
Taille de position USD = 114.78 x 6.4074 = 735.44
Donc, tu peux acheter 114.78 avec un stoploss a 6.4771
Avec un position size USD de 735.44$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 114.78 x 0.0697 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 114.78 x 0.1742 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 114.78
- Taille de position USD 735.44
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4993
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.72 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.09 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.09 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.105 % | 101.58 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4074 | 6.4771 | 6.2332 | 2.5 | 8.3708 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.4074
- Stop Loss: 6.4771
- Take Profit: 6.2332
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4771 - 6.4074 = 0.0697
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.4074 - 6.2332 = 0.1742
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1742 / 0.0697 = 2.4993
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.088%
(0.0697)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.891% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.074% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.219% | 0.2R | -1.074% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.219% | 0.2R | -1.767% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.180% | 1.1R | -1.767% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.180% | 1.1R | -1.767% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
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