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Short Trade on DOGE

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31 Jul 2026 at 05:07:09 hyperliquid

Short Trade on DOGE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 12150.67 DOGE at 0.0699$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06822 (2.35 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07052 (0.94 %)

DOGE SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 31 Jul 2026 05:07 → 17:05 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.06986$

Qty 12150.6683 DOGE

Size 848.9064$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)

Risk Setup

TP 0.06822 (+2.35%)

TP $ 19.93$

SL 0.07052 (-0.94%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR 2.48

Status win PnL +0.43% / +3.68$ MAE -0.70% MFE +1.98% 2.1R expires 31 Jul 17:07 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 54352)
#39 / 46 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 31/07/2026 05:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1969

Quality Score
0.479
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#39 / 46 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.94 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#39 / 46 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.94 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near 0.27×ATR
4h near -0.12×ATR
1d clear —
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
6.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
31/07 05:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

30/07 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

31/07 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1)

31/07 04:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1185
range ranging range_bound
Strategic range

—

range

0

Operational range

—

range

0

Tactical bear

—

expansion

0

Micro —

—

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.63
Transition risk : 0.37
Score contribution (this trade) 0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.78
Snapshot évalué : 31/07 05:00 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 31/07/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.4786
Score SMA
0.4804
Rank
#39 / 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1969
Rank Norm SMA
0.3289
Calculé le
31/07/2026 05:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4776 r1h: -0.190% · r4h: -0.287% · r1d: -0.22% · r3d: -0.40% · ema21_slope: -0.0209% · dist_ema21: -0.499%
Force Relative 25% 0.5051 rs_1h: -0.034% · rs_4h: 0.438% · rs_1d: 0.49% · rs_3d: -1.06% · beta_24h: 0.568
Volume 20% 0.1982 rvol_20: 0.46× · zscore_50: -0.445 · trend: -29.08%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4624 ADX: 11.8 (weak) · Chop: 55.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.606% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.945% (0.0007)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.089% 1.2R -0.012% 0.0R 94.7× 12
2h +1.089% 1.2R -0.012% 0.0R 94.7× 24
4h +1.089% 1.2R -0.012% 0.0R 94.7× 48
8h +1.975% 2.1R -0.012% 0.0R 171.8× 96
12h ★ +1.975% 2.1R -0.704% 0.8R 2.8× 144
24h +1.975% 2.1R -0.704% 0.8R 2.8× 288

computed 3 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 40
ML Pullback Score: 6.84
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down pullback bear_trend moderate fading compression bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 34% early — — 0.79 bear_high -4.62% -0.47 30/07 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 33% early near -0.1ATR — 0.83 range_high -0.72% -0.11 31/07 04:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate fading compression bear_medium
57%
noisy_chop 38% mid near 0.3ATR — 0.73 bear_medium -0.80% +0.12 31/07 04:00
15m ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate explosive expansion_after_compression range_low
41%
noisy_chop 45% early — — — bear_low -0.94% +0.05 31/07 04:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 27b — 3.588×ATR p38 -0.34×ATR p38
4h ↑ up early 9b — 1.334×ATR p0 -0.253×ATR p27
1h ↓ down mid 13b — 2.609×ATR p60 -0.57×ATR p62
15m ↓ down early 1b — 1.595×ATR p3 -0.596×ATR p57

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.9025
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.59×ATR dur=59b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.0705234
  5. tp_price: 0.06821899
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.90251469438768
  8. expires_at: 2026-07-31T21:07:01.523745
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.90251469438768
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.0999
  10. obi_top10 : 0.1491
  11. micro_price : 0.06981983
  12. spread_pct : 0.014325
  13. mid_price : 0.069815
  14. bid_wall_price : 0.069
  15. bid_wall_size : 35948254.6
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.0973
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.003
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7066
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.071
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.069967
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.0704835
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1785279600
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1785488400
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.5887
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    59
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.9025
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1785484800
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.069967
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.8305
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.2556
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    11
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    19
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.00039904
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
59
inside_close_ratio
0.8305
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2556

Signaux confirmants (48)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 05:07 0.06986500 +0.007%
2 05:13 0.06986500 +0.007%
3 05:19 0.06980000 -0.086%
4 05:25 0.06980000 -0.086%
5 05:31 0.06980000 -0.086%
6 05:37 0.06938300 -0.683%
7 05:43 0.06938300 -0.683%
8 05:49 0.06942700 -0.62%
9 05:55 0.06942700 -0.62%
10 06:01 0.06942700 -0.62%
11 06:07 0.06932600 -0.764%
12 06:13 0.06932600 -0.764%
13 06:19 0.06933200 -0.756%
14 06:25 0.06933200 -0.756%
15 06:31 0.06933200 -0.756%
16 06:37 0.06946800 -0.561%
17 06:43 0.06946800 -0.561%
18 06:49 0.06949900 -0.517%
19 06:55 0.06949900 -0.517%
20 07:01 0.06949900 -0.517%
21 07:07 0.06954700 -0.448%
22 07:13 0.06954700 -0.448%
23 07:19 0.06948700 -0.534%
24 07:25 0.06948700 -0.534%
25 07:31 0.06948700 -0.534%
26 07:37 0.06947900 -0.545%
27 07:43 0.06947900 -0.545%
28 07:49 0.06953700 -0.462%
29 07:55 0.06953700 -0.462%
30 08:01 0.06953700 -0.462%
31 08:07 0.06948000 -0.544%
32 08:13 0.06948000 -0.544%
33 08:19 0.06942100 -0.628%
34 08:25 0.06942100 -0.628%
35 08:31 0.06942100 -0.628%
36 08:37 0.06938300 -0.683%
37 08:43 0.06938300 -0.683%
38 08:49 0.06950200 -0.512%
39 08:55 0.06950200 -0.512%
40 09:01 0.06950200 -0.512%
41 09:07 0.06962100 -0.342%
42 09:13 0.06962100 -0.342%
43 09:19 0.06960000 -0.372%
44 09:25 0.06960000 -0.372%
45 09:31 0.06960000 -0.372%
46 09:49 0.06938300 -0.683%
47 09:55 0.06938300 -0.683%
48 10:01 0.06938300 -0.683%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7066ms Confidence avant OB : 90% → 90%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.100
avg 0.097 ± 0.003
OBI Top 10 0.149

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0698
Micro Price
0.0698
Spread
0.0143%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0690
Size
35,948,254.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.06986 0.07052 0.06822 2.48 0.07524
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.06986
  • Stop Loss: 0.07052
  • Take Profit: 0.06822

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07052 - 0.06986 = 0.00065999999999999

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.06986 - 0.06822 = 0.00164

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00164 / 0.00065999999999999 = 2.4848

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
848.9064 100 12150.6683 8.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00065999999999999

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00065999999999999 = 12121.21

Taille de position USD = 12121.21 x 0.06986 = 846.79

Donc, tu peux acheter 12121.21 avec un stoploss a 0.07052

Avec un position size USD de 846.79$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 12121.21 x 0.00065999999999999 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 12121.21 x 0.00164 = 19.88

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.88$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 12121.21
  • Taille de position USD 846.79
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.88
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4848

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.35 % 19.93 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
0.94 % 8.02 $
PNL PNL %
3.68 $ 0.43
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.7043 % 74.55 % 10
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.06986 0.07052 0.06822 2.48 0.07524
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.06986
  • Stop Loss: 0.07052
  • Take Profit: 0.06822

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07052 - 0.06986 = 0.00065999999999999

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.06986 - 0.06822 = 0.00164

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00164 / 0.00065999999999999 = 2.4848

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
    [2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.06854
            [stop_loss] => 0.07052
            [rr_ratio] => 2
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-31 14:10:00+00
            [result] => win
        )

)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.945% (0.0007)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.089% 1.2R -0.012% 0.0R 94.7× 12
2h +1.089% 1.2R -0.012% 0.0R 94.7× 24
4h +1.089% 1.2R -0.012% 0.0R 94.7× 48
8h +1.975% 2.1R -0.012% 0.0R 171.8× 96
12h ★ +1.975% 2.1R -0.704% 0.8R 2.8× 144
24h +1.975% 2.1R -0.704% 0.8R 2.8× 288

computed 3 months ago

Commentaires

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