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Short Trade on CFX

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31 Jul 2026 at 08:08:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on CFX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 7271.6 CFX at 0.0405$ per unit. Take profit: 0.03771 (6.8 %) & Stop Loss: 0.04156 (2.72 %)

CFX SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 31 Jul 2026 08:08 → 09:10 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 0.04046$

Qty 7271.6035 CFX

Size 294.2309$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.03771 (+6.8%)

TP $ 20$

SL 0.04156 (-2.72%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.72% / -8$ MAE -9.40% MFE +0.38% 0.1R expires 31 Jul 20:07

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 54496)
#34 / 45 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 31/07/2026 08:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6397

Quality Score
0.463
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#34 / 45 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
62 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.72 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#34 / 45 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
62 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.72 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.13×ATR
4h clear —
1d clear —
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d — — OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
2.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
31/07 08:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

31/07 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

31/07 07:00

Score : +3 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1188
range ranging range_bound
Strategic range

—

range

0

Operational range

—

range

0

Tactical bear

—

expansion

+1

Micro —

—

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.63
Transition risk : 0.37
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.78
Snapshot évalué : 31/07 08:00 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 31/07/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.4630
Score SMA
—
Rank
#34 / 45
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6397
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
31/07/2026 08:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3560 r1h: -0.507% · r4h: -9.336% · r1d: -1.12% · r3d: -5.03% · ema21_slope: 0.1224% · dist_ema21: -2.900%
Force Relative 25% 0.3166 rs_1h: -0.379% · rs_4h: -9.170% · rs_1d: 0.33% · rs_3d: -5.61% · beta_24h: 2.806
Volume 20% 0.3867 rvol_20: 0.20× · zscore_50: -0.200 · trend: 124.53%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8148 ADX: 37.8 (trend) · Chop: 0.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.7747 ATR%: 3.676% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.719% (0.0011)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.378% 0.1R -2.585% 1.0R 0.2× 12
2h +0.378% 0.1R -6.191% 2.3R 0.1× 24
4h +0.378% 0.1R -6.839% 2.5R 0.1× 48
8h +0.378% 0.1R -9.399% 3.5R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.378% 0.1R -9.399% 3.5R 0.0× 144
24h +0.378% 0.1R -9.399% 3.5R 0.0× 288

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.12
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d —
4h ↓ down range bearish_transition moderate grind expansion_after_compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 31% early — — 0.53 range_high -0.60% -0.44 31/07 04:00
1h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind volatile_reversal bear_high
49%
noisy_chop 37% mid near -0.1ATR — 0.33 bear_medium -0.76% +0.03 31/07 07:00
15m ↓ down range range strong fading compression bear_high
51%
noisy_chop 47% late — — 0.24 bear_low -0.76% -0.62 31/07 07:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
4h ↑ up early 1b — 0.515×ATR p0 -0.398×ATR p40
1h ↓ down mid 2b — 3.106×ATR p67 -0.676×ATR p63
15m ↓ down late 14b — 5.218×ATR p84 -0.88×ATR p63

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.6225
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.05×ATR dur=57b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)|ob:obi_bullish(-0.05)
  4. stop_price: 0.04156317
  5. tp_price: 0.03771258
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.77248932198427
  8. expires_at: 2026-08-01T00:07:58.240932
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.77248932198427
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.4718
  10. obi_top10 : 0.3734
  11. micro_price : 0.04043585
  12. spread_pct : 0.024734
  13. mid_price : 0.040435
  14. bid_wall_price : 0.0395
  15. bid_wall_size : 1402926
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 0.0416
  18. ask_wall_size : 984725
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.472
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0002
  23. pressure_side : bid
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 6923
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.042163
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.0406815
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.04142225
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1785297600
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1785499200
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    1.0513
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    57
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.7725
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1785495600
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.0406815
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.807
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.1551
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    11
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    13
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.00140916
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
57
inside_close_ratio
0.807
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1551

Signaux confirmants (7)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 08:08 0.04046300 +0.007%
2 08:14 0.04046300 +0.007%
3 08:20 0.04046000 0%
4 08:25 0.04046000 0%
5 08:32 0.04046000 0%
6 08:37 0.04064700 +0.462%
7 08:43 0.04064700 +0.462%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6923ms Confidence avant OB : 77% → 62%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.472
avg 0.472 ± 0.000
OBI Top 10 0.373

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0404
Micro Price
0.0404
Spread
0.0247%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0395
Size
1,402,926.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0416
Size
984,725.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.04046 0.04156 0.03771 2.5 0.04658
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.04046
  • Stop Loss: 0.04156
  • Take Profit: 0.03771

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.04156 - 0.04046 = 0.0011

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.04046 - 0.03771 = 0.00275

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00275 / 0.0011 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
294.2309 100 7271.6035 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0011

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0011 = 7272.73

Taille de position USD = 7272.73 x 0.04046 = 294.25

Donc, tu peux acheter 7272.73 avec un stoploss a 0.04156

Avec un position size USD de 294.25$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 7272.73 x 0.0011 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 7272.73 x 0.00275 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 7272.73
  • Taille de position USD 294.25
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
6.8 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.72 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -2.72
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.0549 % 112.37 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.04046 0.04156 0.03771 2.5 0.04658
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.04046
  • Stop Loss: 0.04156
  • Take Profit: 0.03771

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.04156 - 0.04046 = 0.0011

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.04046 - 0.03771 = 0.00275

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00275 / 0.0011 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.03771
            [entry_price] => 0.04046
            [stop_loss] => 0.04167
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-31 13:10:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.03771
            [entry_price] => 0.04046
            [stop_loss] => 0.04178
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-31 13:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.03771
            [entry_price] => 0.04046
            [stop_loss] => 0.04189
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-31 13:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.03771
            [entry_price] => 0.04046
            [stop_loss] => 0.04211
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-31 13:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.719% (0.0011)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.378% 0.1R -2.585% 1.0R 0.2× 12
2h +0.378% 0.1R -6.191% 2.3R 0.1× 24
4h +0.378% 0.1R -6.839% 2.5R 0.1× 48
8h +0.378% 0.1R -9.399% 3.5R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.378% 0.1R -9.399% 3.5R 0.0× 144
24h +0.378% 0.1R -9.399% 3.5R 0.0× 288

computed 2 months ago

Commentaires

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