Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 78.27 AVAX at 6.372$ per unit. Take profit: 6.1163 (4.01 %) & Stop Loss: 6.474 (1.6 %)
31 Jul 2026 at 10:06:39
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
31 Jul 2026 10:06
→ 14:00
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 6.3718$
Qty 78.266 AVAX
Size 498.6955$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 6.1163 (+4.01%)
TP $ 20$
SL 6.474 (-1.6%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.60%
/ -8$
MAE -1.61%
MFE +0.63%
0.4R
expires
31 Jul 22:06
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 54575)
#11 / 43
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 31/07/2026 10:00
score du 31/07/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4270
Quality Score
0.559
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#11 / 43
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.60 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#11 / 43
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.60 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.80×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.35×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
31/07 10:00
31/07 10:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 31/07 08:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 31/07 09:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1190
range
ranging
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
31/07 10:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
31/07/2026 10:00
Score brut
0.5585
Score SMA
0.4913
Rank
#11
/ 43
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4270
Rank Norm SMA
0.3756
Calculé le
31/07/2026 10:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4838 | r1h: -0.320% · r4h: 0.086% · r1d: -0.78% · r3d: 0.14% · ema21_slope: -0.0076% · dist_ema21: -0.378% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5316 | rs_1h: 0.124% · rs_4h: 0.480% · rs_1d: 1.59% · rs_3d: -0.42% · beta_24h: 0.858 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5782 | rvol_20: 1.76× · zscore_50: 1.264 · trend: 19.01% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4322 | ADX: 10.4 (weak) · Chop: 57.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.819% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.604%
(0.1022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -0.843% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -0.843% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.628% | 0.4R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.808% | 0.5R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.9
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | — | — | 0.77 | bear_high | -5.56% | -0.18 | 30/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | — | near -0.6ATR | 0.71 | bear_high | -0.91% | +0.00 | 31/07 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | range_high |
40%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early | — | — | 0.64 | bear_medium | -1.29% | +0.13 | 31/07 09:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
42%
|
noisy_chop 48% | mid | near -0.4ATR | — | — | bear_low_confirmed | -1.16% | +0.02 | 31/07 09:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 27b | — | 2.433×ATR | p0 | -0.245×ATR | p28 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 14b | — | 1.572×ATR | p0 | +0.131×ATR | p14 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 0.167×ATR | p0 | -0.38×ATR | p42 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 1b | — | 2.612×ATR | p39 | -0.773×ATR | p67 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8509
- reason: down_bo width=2.00×ATR dur=37b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 6.47401549
- tp_price: 6.11626127
- atr:
- score: 0.85088358571446
- expires_at: 2026-08-01T02:06:32.092936
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.85088358571446
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1137
- obi_top10 : -0.1132
- micro_price : 6.37210768
- spread_pct : 0.015694
- mid_price : 6.3725
- bid_wall_price : 6.25
- bid_wall_size : 64510.68
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 6.44
- ask_wall_size : 115257.76
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.1242
- obi_top5_std : 0.0198
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7042
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
6.52165
- balance_zone_bottom:
6.4158
- balance_zone_mid:
6.468725
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785376800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785506400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.0008
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
37
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8509
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785502800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
6.4158
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9189
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8317
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
12
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.05290493 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
37
inside_close_ratio
0.9189
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8317
Signaux confirmants (25)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:06 | 6.37180000 | 0% |
| 2 | 10:12 | 6.37180000 | 0% |
| 3 | 10:18 | 6.40420000 | +0.508% |
| 4 | 10:24 | 6.40420000 | +0.508% |
| 5 | 10:30 | 6.40420000 | +0.508% |
| 6 | 10:36 | 6.41020000 | +0.603% |
| 7 | 10:42 | 6.41020000 | +0.603% |
| 8 | 10:48 | 6.40010000 | +0.444% |
| 9 | 10:54 | 6.40010000 | +0.444% |
| 10 | 11:00 | 6.40010000 | +0.444% |
| 11 | 11:06 | 6.40270000 | +0.485% |
| 12 | 11:12 | 6.40270000 | +0.485% |
| 13 | 11:18 | 6.39630000 | +0.385% |
| 14 | 11:24 | 6.39630000 | +0.385% |
| 15 | 11:30 | 6.39630000 | +0.385% |
| 16 | 11:36 | 6.38370000 | +0.187% |
| 17 | 11:42 | 6.38370000 | +0.187% |
| 18 | 11:48 | 6.39400000 | +0.348% |
| 19 | 11:54 | 6.39400000 | +0.348% |
| 20 | 12:00 | 6.39400000 | +0.348% |
| 21 | 12:06 | 6.40710000 | +0.554% |
| 22 | 12:12 | 6.40710000 | +0.554% |
| 23 | 12:48 | 6.41290000 | +0.645% |
| 24 | 12:54 | 6.41290000 | +0.645% |
| 25 | 13:01 | 6.41290000 | +0.645% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7042ms
Confidence avant OB :
85%
→
85%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.114
avg -0.124
± 0.020
OBI Top 10
-0.113
Microstructure
Mid Price
6.3725
Micro Price
6.3721
Spread
0.0157%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
6.2500
Size
64,510.68
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
6.4400
Size
115,257.76
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3718 | 6.474 | 6.1163 | 2.5 | 8.5898 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3718
- Stop Loss: 6.474
- Take Profit: 6.1163
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.474 - 6.3718 = 0.1022
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3718 - 6.1163 = 0.2555
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2555 / 0.1022 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 498.6955 | 100 | 78.266 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.1022
Taille de position = 8 / 0.1022 = 78.28
Taille de position USD = 78.28 x 6.3718 = 498.78
Donc, tu peux acheter 78.28 avec un stoploss a 6.474
Avec un position size USD de 498.78$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 78.28 x 0.1022 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 78.28 x 0.2555 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 78.28
- Taille de position USD 498.78
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.01 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.6 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.60 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6055 % | 100.1 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3718 | 6.474 | 6.1163 | 2.5 | 8.5898 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3718
- Stop Loss: 6.474
- Take Profit: 6.1163
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.474 - 6.3718 = 0.1022
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3718 - 6.1163 = 0.2555
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2555 / 0.1022 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.604%
(0.1022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -0.843% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -0.843% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.628% | 0.4R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.628% | 0.4R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.808% | 0.5R | -1.606% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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