Short Trade on VVV (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 15.91 VVV at 11.832$ per unit. Take profit: 10.5749 (10.62 %) & Stop Loss: 12.3349 (4.25 %)
31 Jul 2026 at 11:22:03
hyperliquid
VVV
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
31 Jul 2026 11:22
→ 23:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 11.832$
Qty 15.9091 VVV
Size 188.2364$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 10.5749 (+10.62%)
TP $ 20$
SL 12.3349 (-4.25%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.17%
/ -0.32$
MAE -1.48%
MFE +2.22%
0.5R
expires
31 Jul 23:21
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 54651)
#8 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 31/07/2026 11:00
score du 31/07/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3469
Quality Score
0.650
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#8 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.25 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#8 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.25 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.80×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.04×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.22×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
31/07 11:16
31/07 11:16
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 31/07 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 31/07 11:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1191
range
ranging
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
31/07 11:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
31/07/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.6503
Score SMA
0.4832
Rank
#8
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3469
Rank Norm SMA
0.3195
Calculé le
31/07/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3887 | r1h: 0.660% · r4h: -1.352% · r1d: -1.96% · r3d: -6.61% · ema21_slope: -0.1139% · dist_ema21: -1.819% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5494 | rs_1h: 1.629% · rs_4h: 0.603% · rs_1d: 1.13% · rs_3d: -5.42% · beta_24h: -0.113 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9993 | rvol_20: 3.51× · zscore_50: 3.342 · trend: 99.50% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6430 | ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 40.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.651% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.250%
(0.5029)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.625% | 0.2R | -0.473% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.625% | 0.2R | -0.473% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.651% | 0.2R | -0.507% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.223% | 0.5R | -0.507% | 0.1R | 4.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.223% | 0.5R | -1.479% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.223% | 0.5R | -1.479% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 3.02
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.46 | bear_high | -5.56% | +0.86 | 30/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.46 | bear_high_confirmed | -2.54% | -0.41 | 31/07 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.43 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.50% | -0.10 | 31/07 11:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | — | 0.50 | bear_low | -2.23% | +0.01 | 31/07 11:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 5b | — | 2.693×ATR | p17 | -0.523×ATR | p54 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 18b | — | 3.697×ATR | p59 | -0.784×ATR | p77 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 2.604×ATR | p48 | -0.744×ATR | p72 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.845×ATR | p13 | -0.019×ATR | p1 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.836
- reason: down_bo width=2.62×ATR dur=43b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 12.33485707
- tp_price: 10.57485732
- atr:
- score: 0.83595150338281
- expires_at: 2026-08-01T03:21:55.850610
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83595150338281
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1054
- obi_top10 : 0.0902
- micro_price : 11.80847463
- spread_pct : 0.059282
- mid_price : 11.8115
- bid_wall_price : 11.6
- bid_wall_size : 8127.918
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 12.1
- ask_wall_size : 6323.55
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1061
- obi_top5_std : 0.0069
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6993
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
12.563
- balance_zone_bottom:
12.069
- balance_zone_mid:
12.316
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785358800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785510000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6197
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
43
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.836
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785492000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
12.069
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.814
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
5
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2568
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.18857072 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
43
inside_close_ratio
0.814
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2568
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:22 | 11.83200000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:27 | 11.83200000 | 0% |
| 3 | 11:34 | 11.83200000 | 0% |
| 4 | 11:39 | 11.80300000 | -0.245% |
| 5 | 11:46 | 11.80300000 | -0.245% |
| 6 | 11:51 | 11.76700000 | -0.549% |
| 7 | 11:57 | 11.76700000 | -0.549% |
| 8 | 12:05 | 11.76700000 | -0.549% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6993ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.105
avg 0.106
± 0.007
OBI Top 10
0.090
Microstructure
Mid Price
11.8115
Micro Price
11.8085
Spread
0.0593%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
11.6000
Size
8,127.92
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
12.1000
Size
6,323.55
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.832 | 12.3349 | 10.5749 | 2.5 | 23.512 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.832
- Stop Loss: 12.3349
- Take Profit: 10.5749
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 12.3349 - 11.832 = 0.5029
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.832 - 10.5749 = 1.2571
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.2571 / 0.5029 = 2.4997
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188.2364 | 100 | 15.9091 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.5029
Taille de position = 8 / 0.5029 = 15.91
Taille de position USD = 15.91 x 11.832 = 188.25
Donc, tu peux acheter 15.91 avec un stoploss a 12.3349
Avec un position size USD de 188.25$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 15.91 x 0.5029 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 15.91 x 1.2571 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 15.91
- Taille de position USD 188.25
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4997
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 10.62 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.25 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.32 $ | -0.17 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.479 % | 34.8 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.832 | 12.3349 | 10.5749 | 2.5 | 23.512 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.832
- Stop Loss: 12.3349
- Take Profit: 10.5749
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 12.3349 - 11.832 = 0.5029
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.832 - 10.5749 = 1.2571
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.2571 / 0.5029 = 2.4997
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.250%
(0.5029)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.625% | 0.2R | -0.473% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.625% | 0.2R | -0.473% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.651% | 0.2R | -0.507% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.223% | 0.5R | -0.507% | 0.1R | 4.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.223% | 0.5R | -1.479% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.223% | 0.5R | -1.479% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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