Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 97.22 AVAX at 6.356$ per unit. Take profit: 6.1498 (3.24 %) & Stop Loss: 6.4378 (1.29 %)
01 Aug 2026 at 04:06:38
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Aug 2026 04:06
→ 14:45
· 10 hours
Position
Entry 6.3555$
Qty 97.223 AVAX
Size 617.9008$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 6.1498 (+3.24%)
TP $ 20$
SL 6.4378 (-1.29%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+3.24%
/ +20$
MAE -0.48%
MFE +4.99%
3.9R
expires
01 Aug 16:06
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 55381)
#36 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 04:00
score du 01/08/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2319
Quality Score
0.433
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 04:00
01/08 04:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 55381)
#36 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 04:00
score du 01/08/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2319
Quality Score
0.433
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#36 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.29 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#36 / 40
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.29 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.50×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.91×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 04:00
01/08 04:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 01/08 03:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1208
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
— |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.51
Snapshot évalué :
01/08 04:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
01/08/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4333
Score SMA
0.4867
Rank
#36
/ 40
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2319
Rank Norm SMA
0.3701
Calculé le
01/08/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4596 | r1h: -0.460% · r4h: -0.409% · r1d: -1.13% · r3d: -0.63% · ema21_slope: -0.0310% · dist_ema21: -0.524% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4900 | rs_1h: -0.425% · rs_4h: -0.477% · rs_1d: 0.28% · rs_3d: 1.71% · beta_24h: 0.755 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1518 | rvol_20: 0.17× · zscore_50: -0.723 · trend: -81.21% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2839 | ADX: 6.4 (weak) · Chop: 71.5 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.644% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.295%
(0.0823)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.349% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.554% | 0.4R | -0.349% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.554% | 0.4R | -0.349% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.554% | 0.4R | -0.477% | 0.4R | 1.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.993% | 3.9R | -0.477% | 0.4R | 10.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.993% | 3.9R | -5.115% | 4.0R | 1.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 3.28
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | — | — | 0.77 | bear_high | -6.49% | +0.12 | 31/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 30% | early | — | near -0.1ATR | 0.71 | bear_high | -1.78% | -0.10 | 01/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | — | 0.64 | bear_low | -1.33% | -0.01 | 01/08 03:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | range_low |
41%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.38% | -0.04 | 01/08 03:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 28b | — | 2.631×ATR | p6 | -0.251×ATR | p29 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 18b | — | 1.146×ATR | p0 | -0.038×ATR | p5 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 1.655×ATR | p3 | -0.742×ATR | p71 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 3.099×ATR | p50 | -1.721×ATR | p97 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7794
- reason: down_bo width=2.00×ATR dur=30b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 6.43778505
- tp_price: 6.14978738
- atr:
- score: 0.87936542134918
- expires_at: 2026-08-01T20:06:30.502666
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.87936542134918
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1685
- obi_top10 : 0.0293
- micro_price : 6.36124397
- spread_pct : 0.015721
- mid_price : 6.3615
- bid_wall_price : 6.26
- bid_wall_size : 120711.5
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 6.43
- ask_wall_size : 99385
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1685
- obi_top5_std : 0.0001
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7154
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
6.4741
- balance_zone_bottom:
6.3934
- balance_zone_mid:
6.43375
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785466800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785571200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
30
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8794
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785567600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
6.3934
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.9393
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
14
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.04035048 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
30
inside_close_ratio
0.7667
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9393
Signaux confirmants (60)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:06 | 6.35550000 | 0% |
| 2 | 04:12 | 6.35550000 | 0% |
| 3 | 04:18 | 6.36400000 | +0.134% |
| 4 | 04:24 | 6.36400000 | +0.134% |
| 5 | 04:30 | 6.36400000 | +0.134% |
| 6 | 04:36 | 6.37410000 | +0.293% |
| 7 | 04:42 | 6.37410000 | +0.293% |
| 8 | 04:48 | 6.37420000 | +0.294% |
| 9 | 04:54 | 6.37420000 | +0.294% |
| 10 | 05:00 | 6.37420000 | +0.294% |
| 11 | 05:12 | 6.36130000 | +0.091% |
| 12 | 05:18 | 6.36290000 | +0.116% |
| 13 | 05:24 | 6.36290000 | +0.116% |
| 14 | 05:30 | 6.36290000 | +0.116% |
| 15 | 05:36 | 6.36310000 | +0.12% |
| 16 | 05:42 | 6.36310000 | +0.12% |
| 17 | 05:48 | 6.36030000 | +0.076% |
| 18 | 05:54 | 6.36030000 | +0.076% |
| 19 | 06:01 | 6.36030000 | +0.076% |
| 20 | 06:06 | 6.32480000 | -0.483% |
| 21 | 06:12 | 6.32480000 | -0.483% |
| 22 | 06:18 | 6.33940000 | -0.253% |
| 23 | 06:24 | 6.33940000 | -0.253% |
| 24 | 06:30 | 6.33940000 | -0.253% |
| 25 | 06:36 | 6.32600000 | -0.464% |
| 26 | 06:42 | 6.32600000 | -0.464% |
| 27 | 06:48 | 6.33180000 | -0.373% |
| 28 | 06:54 | 6.33180000 | -0.373% |
| 29 | 07:00 | 6.33180000 | -0.373% |
| 30 | 07:06 | 6.33890000 | -0.261% |
| 31 | 07:12 | 6.33890000 | -0.261% |
| 32 | 07:18 | 6.33890000 | -0.261% |
| 33 | 07:24 | 6.33890000 | -0.261% |
| 34 | 07:30 | 6.33890000 | -0.261% |
| 35 | 07:36 | 6.34110000 | -0.227% |
| 36 | 07:42 | 6.34110000 | -0.227% |
| 37 | 07:48 | 6.33620000 | -0.304% |
| 38 | 07:54 | 6.33620000 | -0.304% |
| 39 | 08:01 | 6.33620000 | -0.304% |
| 40 | 08:06 | 6.33150000 | -0.378% |
| 41 | 08:12 | 6.33150000 | -0.378% |
| 42 | 08:18 | 6.34200000 | -0.212% |
| 43 | 08:24 | 6.34200000 | -0.212% |
| 44 | 08:30 | 6.34200000 | -0.212% |
| 45 | 08:36 | 6.35510000 | -0.006% |
| 46 | 08:42 | 6.35510000 | -0.006% |
| 47 | 08:48 | 6.34180000 | -0.216% |
| 48 | 08:54 | 6.34180000 | -0.216% |
| 49 | 09:00 | 6.34180000 | -0.216% |
| 50 | 09:06 | 6.34610000 | -0.148% |
| 51 | 09:12 | 6.34610000 | -0.148% |
| 52 | 09:18 | 6.35420000 | -0.02% |
| 53 | 09:24 | 6.35420000 | -0.02% |
| 54 | 09:30 | 6.35420000 | -0.02% |
| 55 | 09:36 | 6.35200000 | -0.055% |
| 56 | 09:42 | 6.35200000 | -0.055% |
| 57 | 09:48 | 6.34730000 | -0.129% |
| 58 | 09:54 | 6.34730000 | -0.129% |
| 59 | 10:00 | 6.34730000 | -0.129% |
| 60 | 10:06 | 6.36120000 | +0.09% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7154ms
Confidence avant OB :
88%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.169
avg 0.169
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.029
Microstructure
Mid Price
6.3615
Micro Price
6.3612
Spread
0.0157%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
6.2600
Size
120,711.50
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
6.4300
Size
99,385.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3555 | 6.4378 | 6.1498 | 2.5 | 8.8503 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3555
- Stop Loss: 6.4378
- Take Profit: 6.1498
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4378 - 6.3555 = 0.0823
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3555 - 6.1498 = 0.2057
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2057 / 0.0823 = 2.4994
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 617.9008 | 100 | 97.223 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0823
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0823 = 97.21
Taille de position USD = 97.21 x 6.3555 = 617.82
Donc, tu peux acheter 97.21 avec un stoploss a 6.4378
Avec un position size USD de 617.82$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 97.21 x 0.0823 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 97.21 x 0.2057 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 97.21
- Taille de position USD 617.82
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4994
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.24 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.29 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 20 $ | 3.24 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4768 % | 36.82 % | 13 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3555 | 6.4378 | 6.1498 | 2.5 | 8.8503 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3555
- Stop Loss: 6.4378
- Take Profit: 6.1498
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4378 - 6.3555 = 0.0823
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3555 - 6.1498 = 0.2057
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2057 / 0.0823 = 2.4994
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.295%
(0.0823)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.349% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.554% | 0.4R | -0.349% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.554% | 0.4R | -0.349% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.554% | 0.4R | -0.477% | 0.4R | 1.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.993% | 3.9R | -0.477% | 0.4R | 10.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.993% | 3.9R | -5.115% | 4.0R | 1.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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