Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 440771.35 PENGU at 0.00618$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006219 (0.58 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006165 (0.29 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 440771.35 PENGU at 0.00618$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006219 (0.58 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006165 (0.29 %)
Position
Entry 0.006183$
Qty 440771.3499 PENGU
Size 2725.2893$ (margin 100$) (leverage 27)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006219 (+0.58%)
TP $ 15.87$
SL 0.006165 (-0.29%)
SL $ 7.93$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7810
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.13×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.56×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.75×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 02/08 18:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.478488 15m : 0.384845 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 02/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 02/08 18:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6232 | r1h: 0.581% · r4h: 0.645% · r1d: 5.12% · r3d: 1.61% · ema21_slope: 0.1547% · dist_ema21: 1.589% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5837 | rs_1h: 0.254% · rs_4h: 0.023% · rs_1d: 3.69% · rs_3d: 3.17% · beta_24h: 0.609 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1843 | rvol_20: 0.37× · zscore_50: -0.235 · trend: -62.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7523 | ADX: 37.1 (trend) · Chop: 45.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.830% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -0.631% | 2.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -1.067% | 3.7R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.275% | 0.9R | -1.892% | 6.5R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -1.957% | 6.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -2.798% | 9.6R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -5.92% | +0.49 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bull_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.71 | range_high | -0.53% | +0.64 | 02/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.54 | range_low | +0.28% | +0.16 | 02/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.6ATR | near -0.4ATR | — | range_low | +0.52% | -0.01 | 02/08 18:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 29b | — | 2.097×ATR | p0 | +0.467×ATR | p48 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 7b | — | 2.95×ATR | p42 | +0.853×ATR | p75 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 8b | — | 1.237×ATR | p2 | +0.492×ATR | p52 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 2.984×ATR | p48 | -0.447×ATR | p46 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63373.8
0.00309487
63570
0.478488
63227.1
0.00542212
63570
0.384845
63384.9
0.00437122
63662
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191
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0.3354
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0.4675
0.4273
0.6684
0.6811
0.6204
0.0943
0.5211
0.9176
0.1718
0.1295
1
1.5955
3.2159
0.45
0.55
1
10
1
0.6521
0.4
3.5676
0.55
0.4273
1.5244
3.2159
0.7203
0.3956
0.1
-0.2486
0.3195
0.4363
0.9259
0.9176
-1.1527
12.8375
1
0
1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:33 | 0.00618300 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:39 | 0.00618400 | +0.016% |
| 3 | 18:57 | 0.00617700 | -0.097% |
| 4 | 19:04 | 0.00617500 | -0.129% |
| 5 | 19:09 | 0.00615400 | -0.469% |
Market Structure Score: 2
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 18:15:00 | 0.006214 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 18:30:00 | 0.006174 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 19:30:00 | 0.006185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 20:15:00 | 0.006212 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 20:25:00 | 0.006201 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 20:30:00 | 0.006212 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 20:55:00 | 0.0062 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:15:00 | 0.0062 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:20:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 22:30:00 | 0.006182 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 10:15:00 | 0.006033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:15:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.006159 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 15:00:00 | 0.006221 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 16:45:00 | 0.006215 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 17:00:00 | 0.006176 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 18:15:00 | 0.006214 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 18:30:00 | 0.006174 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:15:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 22:30:00 | 0.006182 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 07:00:00 | 0.006125 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 13:00:00 | 0.006117 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 0.005936 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 04:00:00 | 0.006184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 10:00:00 | 0.006033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:00:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 21:00:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006183 | 0.006165 | 0.006219 | 2 | 0.008155 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006165 - 0.006183 = -1.8E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006183 - 0.006219 = -3.6E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.6E-5 / -1.8E-5 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2725.2893 | 100 | 440771.3499 | 27.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -1.8E-5 = -444444.44
Taille de position USD = -444444.44 x 0.006183 = -2748
Donc, tu peux acheter -444444.44 avec un stoploss a 0.006165
Avec un position size USD de -2748$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -444444.44 x -1.8E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -444444.44 x -3.6E-5 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.58 % | 15.87 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.29 % | 7.93 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.93 $ | -0.29 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5175 % | 177.77 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006183 | 0.006165 | 0.006219 | 2 | 0.008155 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006165 - 0.006183 = -1.8E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006183 - 0.006219 = -3.6E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.6E-5 / -1.8E-5 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -0.631% | 2.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -1.067% | 3.7R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.275% | 0.9R | -1.892% | 6.5R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -1.957% | 6.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.275% | 0.9R | -2.798% | 9.6R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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