Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 45088.2 ARB at 0.0824$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08274 (0.42 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08221 (0.22 %)
Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 45088.2 ARB at 0.0824$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08274 (0.42 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08221 (0.22 %)
Position
Entry 0.08239$
Qty 45088.2038 ARB
Size 3714.8171$ (margin 100$) (leverage 37)
Risk Setup
TP 0.08274 (+0.42%)
TP $ 15.78$
SL 0.08221 (-0.22%)
SL $ 8.12$
RR 1.94
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.8116
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.91×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 4.52×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 28.24×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 04/08 04:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.488219 15m : 0.467009 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 03/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 04/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 04/08 04:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5664 | r1h: -0.121% · r4h: -0.650% · r1d: 2.76% · r3d: 5.96% · ema21_slope: 0.1138% · dist_ema21: 0.219% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5414 | rs_1h: -0.112% · rs_4h: -0.437% · rs_1d: 1.10% · rs_3d: 4.97% · beta_24h: 0.646 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1939 | rvol_20: 0.30× · zscore_50: -0.800 · trend: -14.56% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5967 | ADX: 21.3 (weak) · Chop: 48.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.852% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -0.328% | 1.5R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -0.340% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.231% | 1.1R | -0.595% | 2.7R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -1.724% | 7.9R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -1.724% | 7.9R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.94% | -0.43 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | — | 0.65 | range_high | -0.36% | +0.42 | 04/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | — | 0.57 | range_medium | +0.25% | +0.01 | 04/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_low |
36%
|
noisy_chop 47% | mid | — | — | — | range_low | +0.11% | -0.07 | 04/08 04:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 23b | — | 4.468×ATR | p56 | +0.544×ATR | p54 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 23b | — | 5.765×ATR | p85 | +0.495×ATR | p56 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 5b | — | 2.252×ATR | p28 | -0.317×ATR | p31 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 14b | — | 3.618×ATR | p71 | -0.872×ATR | p68 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63686.9
-0.00207186
63555
0.488219
63462.3
0.00152236
63559
0.467009
63444.6
0.0025905
63609
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0.08403
194
0.7499
0.4097
0.3082
0.2305
0.3717
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0.1974
0.6158
0.7075
0.6429
0.5407
0.8226
0.0757
0.0874
1
0.1693
1.5289
0.55
0.45
1
5
1
0.5389
0.1921
3.7076
0.5
0
0
1.5289
0
0.2543
0.66
0.0704
0.509
0.5182
0.879
0.8226
-2.3231
10.7693
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:24 | 0.08239000 | 0% |
| 2 | 04:31 | 0.08237000 | -0.024% |
| 3 | 04:36 | 0.08231000 | -0.097% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 03:15:00 | 0.08324 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:35:00 | 0.08389 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 04:15:00 | 0.08289 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 04:40:00 | 0.08352 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 05:10:00 | 0.08297 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 06:00:00 | 0.08297 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 06:20:00 | 0.08334 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 07:20:00 | 0.08228 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 08:00:00 | 0.08273 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 08:20:00 | 0.08239 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 18:45:00 | 0.08134 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 21:30:00 | 0.08291 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 22:00:00 | 0.08206 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 00:00:00 | 0.08313 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:45:00 | 0.08185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:00:00 | 0.08403 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 04:15:00 | 0.08289 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 06:15:00 | 0.08334 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 07:15:00 | 0.08228 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 08:00:00 | 0.08273 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.07893 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 06:00:00 | 0.0776 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 13:00:00 | 0.07883 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.07687 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:00:00 | 0.08225 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.08015 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 22:00:00 | 0.08184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 08:00:00 | 0.07981 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:00:00 | 0.08403 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 07:00:00 | 0.08228 | ↓ Low |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08239 | 0.08221 | 0.08274 | 1.94 | 0.2 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08221 - 0.08239 = -0.00018
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08239 - 0.08274 = -0.00034999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00034999999999999 / -0.00018 = 1.9444
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3714.8171 | 100 | 45088.2038 | 37.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00018 = -44444.44
Taille de position USD = -44444.44 x 0.08239 = -3661.78
Donc, tu peux acheter -44444.44 avec un stoploss a 0.08221
Avec un position size USD de -3661.78$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -44444.44 x -0.00018 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -44444.44 x -0.00034999999999999 = 15.56
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.56$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.42 % | 15.78 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.22 % | 8.12 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.12 $ | -0.22 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3034 % | 138.86 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08239 | 0.08221 | 0.08274 | 1.94 | 0.2 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08221 - 0.08239 = -0.00018
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08239 - 0.08274 = -0.00034999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00034999999999999 / -0.00018 = 1.9444
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -0.328% | 1.5R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -0.340% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.231% | 1.1R | -0.595% | 2.7R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -1.724% | 7.9R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.231% | 1.1R | -1.724% | 7.9R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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