Short Trade on ARB (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3588.54 ARB at 0.0786$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07305 (7.08 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08085 (2.84 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 10:48:58
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 10:48
→ 22:45
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.07862$
Qty 3588.5382 ARB
Size 282.1309$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07305 (+7.08%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.08085 (-2.84%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.66%
/ +1.87$
MAE -0.93%
MFE +1.08%
0.4R
expires
06 Aug 22:48
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60465)
#21 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 10:00
score du 06/08/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5624
Quality Score
0.524
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 10:45
06/08 10:45
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#21 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#21 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 3.43×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.02×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.44×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 06/08 10:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 10:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5242
Score SMA
0.4851
Rank
#21
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5624
Rank Norm SMA
0.3532
Calculé le
06/08/2026 10:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4257 | r1h: 0.710% · r4h: -0.345% · r1d: -3.42% · r3d: -4.21% · ema21_slope: -0.1431% · dist_ema21: -1.716% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4380 | rs_1h: 0.699% · rs_4h: 0.048% · rs_1d: -3.45% · rs_3d: -5.88% · beta_24h: 2.364 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3191 | rvol_20: 0.60× · zscore_50: -0.152 · trend: 35.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8208 | ADX: 38.5 (trend) · Chop: 25.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.862% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.836%
(0.0022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.178% | 0.1R | -0.471% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.382% | 0.1R | -0.471% | 0.2R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.382% | 0.1R | -0.865% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.547% | 0.2R | -0.929% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.081% | 0.4R | -0.929% | 0.3R | 1.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.488% | 0.5R | -0.929% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.04
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.72 | bear_high | -3.82% | -0.93 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.63 | range_high | +0.67% | -0.50 | 06/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.56 | bull_low | +1.07% | -0.30 | 06/08 10:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_low |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.34% | +0.01 | 06/08 10:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 25b | — | 5.993×ATR | p83 | -0.865×ATR | p70 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 15b | — | 4.626×ATR | p77 | -1.231×ATR | p90 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 2.828×ATR | p55 | +0.075×ATR | p8 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 14b | — | 4.104×ATR | p76 | +1.64×ATR | p92 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.6852
- reason: down_bo width=2.25×ATR dur=35b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.08084932
- tp_price: 0.07304669
- atr:
- score: 0.6851764049588
- expires_at: 2026-08-07T02:48:51.320688
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.6851764049588
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0365
- obi_top10 : -0.0111
- micro_price : 0.07852124
- spread_pct : 0.127389
- mid_price : 0.07855
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.041
- obi_top5_std : 0.0062
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7011
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.081535
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.08003
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0807825
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785902400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786024800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2522
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
35
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.6852
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786006800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.08003
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6286
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
5
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
2.11
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00066824 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
35
inside_close_ratio
0.6286
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
2.11
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:48 | 0.07862000 | 0% |
| 2 | 10:54 | 0.07862000 | 0% |
| 3 | 11:01 | 0.07862000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7011ms
Confidence avant OB :
69%
→
69%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.037
avg -0.041
± 0.006
OBI Top 10
-0.011
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0786
Micro Price
0.0785
Spread
0.1274%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07862 | 0.08085 | 0.07305 | 2.5 | 0.1494 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07862
- Stop Loss: 0.08085
- Take Profit: 0.07305
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08085 - 0.07862 = 0.00223
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07862 - 0.07305 = 0.00557
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00557 / 0.00223 = 2.4978
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 282.1309 | 100 | 3588.5382 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00223
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00223 = 3587.44
Taille de position USD = 3587.44 x 0.07862 = 282.04
Donc, tu peux acheter 3587.44 avec un stoploss a 0.08085
Avec un position size USD de 282.04$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3587.44 x 0.00223 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3587.44 x 0.00557 = 19.98
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.98$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3587.44
- Taille de position USD 282.04
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.98
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4978
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 7.08 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.84 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 1.87 $ | 0.66 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9285 % | 32.74 % | 11 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07862 | 0.08085 | 0.07305 | 2.5 | 0.1494 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07862
- Stop Loss: 0.08085
- Take Profit: 0.07305
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08085 - 0.07862 = 0.00223
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07862 - 0.07305 = 0.00557
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00557 / 0.00223 = 2.4978
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.836%
(0.0022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.178% | 0.1R | -0.471% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.382% | 0.1R | -0.471% | 0.2R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.382% | 0.1R | -0.865% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.547% | 0.2R | -0.929% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.081% | 0.4R | -0.929% | 0.3R | 1.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.488% | 0.5R | -0.929% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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