Short Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 53110.27 PENGU at 0.006$ per unit. Take profit: 0.005621 (6.29 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006149 (2.52 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 22:15:38
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 22:15
→ 10:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.005998$
Qty 53110.2702 PENGU
Size 318.5554$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.005621 (+6.29%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.006149 (-2.52%)
SL $ 8.02$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.28%
/ -0.9$
MAE -1.65%
MFE +0.37%
0.2R
expires
07 Aug 10:15
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 61087)
#29 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 22:00
score du 06/08/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3133
Quality Score
0.477
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 22:02
06/08 22:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#29 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.52 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#29 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.52 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.86×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.12×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.16×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_medium Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 06/08 22:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 06/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 21:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.50
Transition risk :
0.50
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.70
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 22:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4773
Score SMA
0.5335
Rank
#29
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3133
Rank Norm SMA
0.6317
Calculé le
06/08/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4423 | r1h: -0.117% · r4h: 0.351% · r1d: -3.35% · r3d: -3.26% · ema21_slope: -0.1225% · dist_ema21: -1.362% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4289 | rs_1h: -0.212% · rs_4h: 0.452% · rs_1d: -3.02% · rs_3d: -4.08% · beta_24h: 2.156 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1817 | rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -0.665 · trend: -30.49% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6739 | ADX: 25.4 (trend) · Chop: 42.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.958% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.518%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -0.283% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -0.400% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -1.651% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -1.651% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.367% | 0.2R | -1.651% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.834% | 0.3R | -2.034% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.88
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.74 | bear_high | -3.92% | -0.19 | 06/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.67 | range_high | +0.52% | -0.34 | 06/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | — | 0.55 | range_low | +0.30% | -0.33 | 06/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near 0.4ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.20% | -0.01 | 06/08 21:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 34b | — | 3.006×ATR | p19 | -0.221×ATR | p23 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 2.957×ATR | p41 | -0.593×ATR | p60 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 1.463×ATR | p0 | -0.473×ATR | p48 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 0.689×ATR | p0 | +0.194×ATR | p22 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.6945
- reason: down_bo width=2.35×ATR dur=38b phase=extending
- stop_price: 0.00614863
- tp_price: 0.00562142
- atr:
- score: 0.69453523575797
- expires_at: 2026-08-07T14:15:30.794005
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.69453523575797
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0352
- obi_top10 : -0.0442
- micro_price : 0.00600384
- spread_pct : 0.016658
- mid_price : 0.0060035
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.00602
- ask_wall_size : 27737473.2
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0085
- obi_top5_std : 0.0469
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7067
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.0062065
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.00608
- balance_zone_mid:
0.00614325
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785934800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786068000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3499
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
38
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.6945
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786042800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.00608
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6053
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
7
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.5232
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 5.383E-5 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
38
inside_close_ratio
0.6053
bars_since_breakout
7
distance_to_edge_atr
1.5232
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:15 | 0.00599800 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:21 | 0.00601300 | +0.25% |
| 3 | 22:27 | 0.00601300 | +0.25% |
| 4 | 22:34 | 0.00601300 | +0.25% |
| 5 | 22:39 | 0.00599300 | -0.083% |
| 6 | 22:45 | 0.00599300 | -0.083% |
| 7 | 22:51 | 0.00600300 | +0.083% |
| 8 | 22:57 | 0.00600300 | +0.083% |
| 9 | 23:04 | 0.00600300 | +0.083% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7067ms
Confidence avant OB :
69%
→
69%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.035
avg 0.009
± 0.047
OBI Top 10
-0.044
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0060
Micro Price
0.0060
Spread
0.0167%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0060
Size
27,737,473.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.005998 | 0.006149 | 0.005621 | 2.5 | 0.007299 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.005998
- Stop Loss: 0.006149
- Take Profit: 0.005621
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006149 - 0.005998 = 0.000151
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.005998 - 0.005621 = 0.000377
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000377 / 0.000151 = 2.4967
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 318.5554 | 100 | 53110.2702 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.000151
Taille de position = 8 / 0.000151 = 52980.13
Taille de position USD = 52980.13 x 0.005998 = 317.77
Donc, tu peux acheter 52980.13 avec un stoploss a 0.006149
Avec un position size USD de 317.77$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 52980.13 x 0.000151 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 52980.13 x 0.000377 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position 52980.13
- Taille de position USD 317.77
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4967
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.29 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.52 % | 8.02 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.9 $ | -0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6506 % | 65.57 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.005998 | 0.006149 | 0.005621 | 2.5 | 0.007299 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.005998
- Stop Loss: 0.006149
- Take Profit: 0.005621
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006149 - 0.005998 = 0.000151
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.005998 - 0.005621 = 0.000377
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000377 / 0.000151 = 2.4967
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.518%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -0.283% | 0.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -0.400% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -1.651% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.367% | 0.2R | -1.651% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.367% | 0.2R | -1.651% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.834% | 0.3R | -2.034% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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