Long Trade on MORPHO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 96.77 MORPHO at 2.22$ per unit. Take profit: 2.4269 (9.31 %) & Stop Loss: 2.1375 (3.72 %)
19 Aug 2026 at 21:08:09
hyperliquid
MORPHO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
19 Aug 2026 21:08
→ 09:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 2.2202$
Qty 96.7678 MORPHO
Size 214.8439$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 2.4269 (+9.31%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2.1375 (-3.72%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.33%
/ -5.01$
MAE -2.70%
MFE +0.80%
0.2R
expires
20 Aug 09:08
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 76001)
#13 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 19/08/2026 21:00
score du 19/08/2026 21:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2568
Quality Score
0.745
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#13 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#13 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -1.20×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.52×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
19/08 21:02
19/08 21:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 19/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high_confirmed (+2) 19/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 19/08 20:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1652
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bull
— |
transition
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
— |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.93
Transition risk :
0.07
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.71
Snapshot évalué :
19/08 21:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
19/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5424
Score SMA
—
Rank
#18
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
19/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7845 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.48% · r3d: 5.71% · ema21_slope: 0.4171% · dist_ema21: 10.851% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5380 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.07% · rs_3d: -2.22% · beta_24h: 0.690 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1778 | rvol_20: 0.06× · zscore_50: -0.972 · trend: -18.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5951 | ADX: 17.6 (weak) · Chop: 44.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4772 | ATR%: 4.568% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
19/08/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.7453
Score SMA
0.5540
Rank
#13
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2568
Rank Norm SMA
0.5676
Calculé le
19/08/2026 21:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.8015 | r1h: 1.707% · r4h: 3.169% · r1d: 8.03% · r3d: 12.61% · ema21_slope: 0.2583% · dist_ema21: 5.296% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6265 | rs_1h: 1.384% · rs_4h: 2.417% · rs_1d: 0.13% · rs_3d: 2.03% · beta_24h: 0.599 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6080 | rvol_20: 2.14× · zscore_50: 0.679 · trend: 24.86% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8442 | ADX: 41.3 (trend) · Chop: 17.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.522% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
19/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6752
Score SMA
0.6315
Rank
#13
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7511
Rank Norm SMA
0.8945
Calculé le
19/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.8505 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.725% · r1d: 9.24% · r3d: 10.76% · ema21_slope: 0.2946% · dist_ema21: 6.852% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5826 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.431% · rs_1d: 1.11% · rs_3d: 1.10% · beta_24h: 0.800 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2537 | rvol_20: 0.14× · zscore_50: -0.617 · trend: 21.09% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8246 | ADX: 39.0 (trend) · Chop: 34.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.386% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.725%
(0.0827)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -0.910% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.234% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.234% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.234% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.703% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.905% | 2.1R | -3.347% | 0.9R | 2.4× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.52
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | near -1.5ATR | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.72% | +0.12 | 19/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | — | near -1.2ATR | 0.33 | bull_high_confirmed | +8.15% | +0.13 | 19/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
63%
|
choppy 46% | late | — | — | 0.34 | bull_high | +7.15% | +0.12 | 19/08 20:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bull_high_confirmed |
70%
|
choppy 55% | late | — | — | 0.32 | bull_medium | +4.07% | +0.38 | 19/08 20:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | late | 12b | — | 3.963×ATR | p32 | +2.405×ATR | p96 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 7b | — | 4.6×ATR | p79 | +2.303×ATR | p96 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 7b | — | 4.177×ATR | p90 | +2.878×ATR | p98 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 13b | — | 4.884×ATR | p73 | +3.226×ATR | p93 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.7782
- reason: up_bo width=2.55×ATR dur=55b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 2.13752789
- tp_price: 2.42688027
- atr:
- score: 0.77816439223532
- expires_at: 2026-08-20T13:08:01.291431
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.77816439223532
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1621
- obi_top10 : 0.0413
- micro_price : 2.21696949
- spread_pct : 0.162646
- mid_price : 2.2152
- bid_wall_price : 2.15
- bid_wall_size : 17070
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 2.23
- ask_wall_size : 16508
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.144
- obi_top5_std : 0.0107
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7148
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2.1825
- balance_zone_bottom:
2.0991
- balance_zone_mid:
2.1408
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786993200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787187600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5488
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
55
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7782
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787180400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2.1825
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1522
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
11
- regime : bull_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.03272109 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
55
inside_close_ratio
0.6
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1522
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:08 | 2.22020000 | 0% |
| 2 | 21:16 | 2.22020000 | 0% |
| 3 | 21:25 | 2.20130000 | -0.851% |
| 4 | 21:33 | 2.20130000 | -0.851% |
| 5 | 21:40 | 2.22290000 | +0.122% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7148ms
Confidence avant OB :
78%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.162
avg -0.144
± 0.011
OBI Top 10
0.041
Microstructure
Mid Price
2.2152
Micro Price
2.2170
Spread
0.1626%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
2.1500
Size
17,070.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
2.2300
Size
16,508.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2202 | 2.1375 | 2.4269 | 2.5 | 2.0952 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.2202
- Stop Loss: 2.1375
- Take Profit: 2.4269
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.1375 - 2.2202 = -0.0827
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.2202 - 2.4269 = -0.2067
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2067 / -0.0827 = 2.4994
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 214.8439 | 100 | 96.7678 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.0827
Taille de position = 8 / -0.0827 = -96.74
Taille de position USD = -96.74 x 2.2202 = -214.78
Donc, tu peux acheter -96.74 avec un stoploss a 2.1375
Avec un position size USD de -214.78$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -96.74 x -0.0827 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -96.74 x -0.2067 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position -96.74
- Taille de position USD -214.78
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4994
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.31 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.72 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -5.01 $ | -2.33 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7025 % | 72.55 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2202 | 2.1375 | 2.4269 | 2.5 | 2.0952 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.2202
- Stop Loss: 2.1375
- Take Profit: 2.4269
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.1375 - 2.2202 = -0.0827
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.2202 - 2.4269 = -0.2067
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2067 / -0.0827 = 2.4994
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.725%
(0.0827)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -0.910% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.234% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.234% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.234% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.797% | 0.2R | -2.703% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.905% | 2.1R | -3.347% | 0.9R | 2.4× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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