Short Trade on LIT

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01 Oct 2026 at 10:15:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 34.37 LIT at 3.889$ per unit. Take profit: 3.7916 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.1216 (5.99 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 10:15 → 16:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 3.8888$

Qty 34.3658 LIT

Size 133.6419$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 3.7916 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.34$

SL 4.1216 (-5.99%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.42

Status loss PnL -0.46% / -0.61$ MAE -2.49% MFE +1.04% 0.2R expires 01 Oct 16:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169895)

#73 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 10:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1461

Quality Score

0.412

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#73 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#73 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.19×ATR
4h	clear	1.06×ATR
1d	clear	3.47×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-2 OK

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

btc OK

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

59.7M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 10:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 09:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

01/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 09:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4561

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	range 0.25	range 0
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 25.1%

Macro btc_led_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	14.8%
1h	39.3%
4h	31.2%
24h	18.0%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	45.9%	-0.21%
4h	31.2%	-0.35%
24h	29.5%	-2.73%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.152

Universe : 61 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 01/10 10:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5068

Score SMA

0.5044

Rank

#61 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2000

Rank Norm SMA

0.1300

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4556	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.53% · r3d: -15.11% · ema21_slope: 0.3834% · dist_ema21: -11.742%
Force Relative	25%	0.2828	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.55% · rs_3d: -14.13% · beta_24h: 0.406
Volume	20%	0.9049	rvol_20: 2.62× · zscore_50: 2.988 · trend: 75.13%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7899	ADX: 41.4 (trend) · Chop: 45.1 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.047% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 10:00

Score brut

0.4122

Score SMA

0.4492

Rank

#73 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1461

Rank Norm SMA

0.1847

Calculé le

01/10/2026 10:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3071	r1h: -1.441% · r4h: -2.658% · r1d: -2.74% · r3d: -11.07% · ema21_slope: 0.0318% · dist_ema21: -2.371%
Force Relative	25%	0.2497	rs_1h: -1.706% · rs_4h: -2.880% · rs_1d: -1.91% · rs_3d: -11.44% · beta_24h: 2.073
Volume	20%	0.5352	rvol_20: 2.52× · zscore_50: -0.007 · trend: -40.18%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4039	ADX: 14.8 (weak) · Chop: 65.4 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.437% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.3079

Score SMA

0.3890

Rank

#76 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0196

Rank Norm SMA

0.0677

Calculé le

01/10/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2431	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.083% · r1d: 1.71% · r3d: -10.01% · ema21_slope: -0.7660% · dist_ema21: -4.827%
Force Relative	25%	0.2944	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.502% · rs_1d: 1.71% · rs_3d: -10.98% · beta_24h: 2.623
Volume	20%	0.1851	rvol_20: 0.17× · zscore_50: -0.705 · trend: -25.94%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7762	ADX: 36.4 (trend) · Chop: 41.6 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0796	ATR%: 5.761% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.986% (0.2328)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.769%	0.1R	-0.936%	0.2R	0.8×	12
2h	+1.039%	0.2R	-2.492%	0.4R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.039%	0.2R	-2.492%	0.4R	0.4×	48
6h ★	+1.039%	0.2R	-2.492%	0.4R	0.4×	72
8h	+3.706%	0.6R	-2.492%	0.4R	1.5×	96
12h	+3.706%	0.6R	-2.492%	0.4R	1.5×	144
24h	+5.058%	0.8R	-2.492%	0.4R	2.0×	288
48h	+12.073%	2.0R	-2.492%	0.4R	4.9×	576
72h	+12.073%	2.0R	-2.492%	0.4R	4.9×	864

⏱ MFE in 1429 min MAE in 119 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high	52%	noisy_chop 35%	mid	—	—	—	bull_high	+12.59%	-0.93	29/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	0.34	bull_high	+1.77%	-0.84	01/10 04:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 41%	mid	near -0.2ATR	—	0.33	range_medium	+0.18%	-0.17	01/10 09:00
15m	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 42%	late	near -1.1ATR	—	0.20	range_low	+0.19%	-0.30	01/10 09:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #187768	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.582	expansion	bull_high	52%	noisy_chop 35%	mid 6b -1.1ATR	—	—	2.62	100%	↑ +0.30	below_value	-3.10	inside	#101629	—	bull_high	+12.59%	-0.93	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 20:27
4h #192667	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.414	expansion	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 37%	early 9b -0.7ATR	—	—	0.17	12%	↑ +0.18	above_value	-3.89	—	#103739	0.34	bull_high	+1.77%	-0.84	01/10 04:00 upd 01/10 08:21
1h anchor #193414	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	0.512	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 41%	mid 10b -1.2ATR	near -0.2ATR	—	2.52	87%	↓ -0.63	above_value	-0.66	—	#104131	0.33	range_medium	+0.18%	-0.17	01/10 09:00 upd 01/10 10:13
15m #193335	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.419	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 42%	late 1b -1.8ATR	near -1.1ATR	—	1.23	49%	↑ +0.67	above_value	-4.21	—	#103974	0.20	range_low	+0.19%	-0.30	01/10 09:45 upd 01/10 10:04
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	6b	—	3.423×ATR	p39	-1.106×ATR	p60
4h	↑ up	early	9b	—	1.563×ATR	p0	-0.745×ATR	p47
1h	↓ down	mid	10b	—	2.495×ATR	p47	-1.216×ATR	p72
15m	↑ up	late	1b	—	0.896×ATR	p0	-1.81×ATR	p89

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.12158928
tp_price: 3.79158
atr: 0.09311571
expires_at: 2026-10-01T20:15:07+00:00

Details

rank: 74
total: 78
score: 0.3077
delta_2h: -0.1006
extension_atr: -0.81
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1444
confidence: 0.948

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	10:15	3.88880000	0%
2	12:15	3.89590000	+0.183%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.8888	4.1216	3.7916	0.42	3.0406

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.8888
Stop Loss: 4.1216
Take Profit: 3.7916

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.1216 - 3.8888 = 0.2328
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.8888 - 3.7916 = 0.0972
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0972 / 0.2328 = 0.4175

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
133.6419	100	34.3658	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.2328

Taille de position = 8 / 0.2328 = 34.36

Taille de position USD = 34.36 x 3.8888 = 133.62

Donc, tu peux acheter 34.36 avec un stoploss a 4.1216

Avec un position size USD de 133.62$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 34.36 x 0.2328 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 34.36 x 0.0972 = 3.34

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.34$

Résumé

Taille de position 34.36
Taille de position USD 133.62
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.34
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4175

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.34 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.99 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-0.61 $	-0.46

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.4918 %	41.62 %	14

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.8888	4.1216	3.7916	0.42	3.0406

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.8888
Stop Loss: 4.1216
Take Profit: 3.7916

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.1216 - 3.8888 = 0.2328
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.8888 - 3.7916 = 0.0972
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0972 / 0.2328 = 0.4175

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.986% (0.2328)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.769%	0.1R	-0.936%	0.2R	0.8×	12
2h	+1.039%	0.2R	-2.492%	0.4R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.039%	0.2R	-2.492%	0.4R	0.4×	48
6h ★	+1.039%	0.2R	-2.492%	0.4R	0.4×	72
8h	+3.706%	0.6R	-2.492%	0.4R	1.5×	96
12h	+3.706%	0.6R	-2.492%	0.4R	1.5×	144
24h	+5.058%	0.8R	-2.492%	0.4R	2.0×	288
48h	+12.073%	2.0R	-2.492%	0.4R	4.9×	576
72h	+12.073%	2.0R	-2.492%	0.4R	4.9×	864

⏱ MFE in 1429 min MAE in 119 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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