Short Trade on PENDLE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 127.33 PENDLE at 2.319$ per unit. Take profit: 2.1623 (6.77 %) & Stop Loss: 2.3822 (2.71 %)
01 Oct 2026 at 11:40:35
hyperliquid
PENDLE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Oct 2026 11:40
→ 13:20
· 1 hour
Position
Entry 2.3194$
Qty 127.3319 PENDLE
Size 295.3336$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 2.1623 (+6.77%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2.3822 (-2.71%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.71%
/ -8$
MAE -4.68%
MFE +0.31%
0.1R
expires
01 Oct 23:40
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 169926)
#32 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 11:00
score du 01/10/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.8187
Quality Score
0.516
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#32 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#32 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.16×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.52×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.26×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 11:30
01/10 11:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 01/10 10:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4567
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
10.7%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 42.4% |
| 1h | 50.9% |
| 4h | 11.9% |
| 24h | 23.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 52.5% | -0.09% |
| 4h | 6.8% | -2.04% |
| 24h | 23.7% | -2.27% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.206
Universe :
59
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
01/10 11:31
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4695
Score SMA
0.5682
Rank
#70
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0800
Rank Norm SMA
0.3097
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6145 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 2.76% · r3d: -9.52% · ema21_slope: 0.7884% · dist_ema21: 0.611% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5701 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.77% · rs_3d: -8.54% · beta_24h: 0.625 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1924 | rvol_20: 0.30× · zscore_50: -0.985 · trend: -6.43% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6943 | ADX: 44.3 (trend) · Chop: 59.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.110% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.5157
Score SMA
0.5156
Rank
#32
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8187
Rank Norm SMA
0.3937
Calculé le
01/10/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3961 | r1h: -0.918% · r4h: -3.410% · r1d: -0.40% · r3d: -1.78% · ema21_slope: 0.0744% · dist_ema21: -2.956% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3505 | rs_1h: -1.024% · rs_4h: -3.518% · rs_1d: -0.68% · rs_3d: -3.01% · beta_24h: 1.759 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5091 | rvol_20: 1.18× · zscore_50: 0.647 · trend: 67.59% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7162 | ADX: 25.9 (trend) · Chop: 36.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.596% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.4535
Score SMA
0.4742
Rank
#53
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4826
Rank Norm SMA
0.2130
Calculé le
01/10/2026 08:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3555 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.037% · r1d: 0.90% · r3d: -0.25% · ema21_slope: -0.2399% · dist_ema21: -0.982% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4335 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.622% · rs_1d: 0.90% · rs_3d: -1.22% · beta_24h: 2.126 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4039 | rvol_20: 1.45× · zscore_50: 0.076 · trend: -14.99% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4254 | ADX: 18.6 (weak) · Chop: 66.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9384 | ATR%: 3.185% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.708%
(0.0628)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -2.445% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -3.561% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -3.915% | 1.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -3.915% | 1.5R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.315% | 0.1R | -4.678% | 1.7R | 0.1× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.457% | 0.2R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.457% | 0.2R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.457% | 0.2R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1759 min
MAE in 1314 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.15
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.62 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.78 | 29/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.45 | bull_high | +1.77% | -0.52 | 01/10 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.44 | range_medium | +0.28% | -0.16 | 01/10 10:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.61 | range_low | +0.31% | -0.29 | 01/10 11:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#187621
|
↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.711 | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early 9b 0.1ATR | — | — | 0.30 | 43% | ↔ +0.04 | below_value | -6.25 | — | #101585 | 0.62 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.78 |
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:22
|
|
4h
#192537
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.357 | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 14b -0.4ATR | — | — | 1.45 | 72% | ↓ -0.51 | below_value | -5.75 | — | #103692 | 0.45 | bull_high | +1.77% | -0.52 |
01/10 04:00
upd 01/10 08:14
|
|
1h
anchor #193756
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.593 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late 7b -1.8ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 1.18 | 61% | ↑ +0.85 | below_value | -7.49 | inside | #104240 | 0.44 | range_medium | +0.28% | -0.16 |
01/10 10:00
upd 01/10 11:10
|
|
15m
#193915
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | 0.555 | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid 7b -1.5ATR | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.51 | 69% | ↑ +0.39 | below_value | -7.49 | — | #104240 | 0.61 | range_low | +0.31% | -0.29 |
01/10 11:15
upd 01/10 11:31
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 9b | — | 2.133×ATR | p0 | +0.067×ATR | p4 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 14b | — | 1.215×ATR | p0 | -0.353×ATR | p20 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 4.779×ATR | p93 | -1.832×ATR | p86 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 1.715×ATR | p6 | -1.489×ATR | p74 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8419
- reason: down_bo width=2.90×ATR dur=74b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 2.38222794
- tp_price: 2.16233014
- atr:
- score: 0.84189016206533
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T03:40:27.683006
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84189016206533
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1439
- obi_top10 : 0.1623
- micro_price : 2.32562
- spread_pct : 0.073112
- mid_price : 2.32605
- bid_wall_price : 2.29
- bid_wall_size : 66555
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 2.33
- ask_wall_size : 40938.4
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1406
- obi_top5_std : 0.003
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6809
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2.4316
- balance_zone_bottom:
2.32555
- balance_zone_mid:
2.378575
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790604000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790866800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9031
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
74
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8419
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790863200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2.32555
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7703
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1684
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
22
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.03652943 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
74
inside_close_ratio
0.7703
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1684
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:40 | 2.31940000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:52 | 2.31940000 | 0% |
| 3 | 12:05 | 2.31940000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6809ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.144
avg 0.141
± 0.003
OBI Top 10
0.162
Microstructure
Mid Price
2.3261
Micro Price
2.3256
Spread
0.0731%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
2.2900
Size
66,555.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
2.3300
Size
40,938.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.3194 | 2.3822 | 2.1623 | 2.5 | 1.7804 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.3194
- Stop Loss: 2.3822
- Take Profit: 2.1623
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.3822 - 2.3194 = 0.0628
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.3194 - 2.1623 = 0.1571
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1571 / 0.0628 = 2.5016
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 295.3336 | 100 | 127.3319 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0628
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0628 = 127.39
Taille de position USD = 127.39 x 2.3194 = 295.47
Donc, tu peux acheter 127.39 avec un stoploss a 2.3822
Avec un position size USD de 295.47$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 127.39 x 0.0628 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 127.39 x 0.1571 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position 127.39
- Taille de position USD 295.47
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5016
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.77 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.71 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -2.71 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.9577 % | 109.24 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.3194 | 2.3822 | 2.1623 | 2.5 | 1.7804 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.3194
- Stop Loss: 2.3822
- Take Profit: 2.1623
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.3822 - 2.3194 = 0.0628
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.3194 - 2.1623 = 0.1571
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1571 / 0.0628 = 2.5016
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 2.1623
[entry_price] => 2.3194
[stop_loss] => 2.38848
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-10-01 17:25:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 2.1623
[entry_price] => 2.3194
[stop_loss] => 2.39476
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-01 17:25:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 2.1623
[entry_price] => 2.3194
[stop_loss] => 2.40104
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-10-01 17:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.708%
(0.0628)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -2.445% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -3.561% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -3.915% | 1.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -3.915% | 1.5R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.315% | 0.1R | -4.678% | 1.7R | 0.1× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.315% | 0.1R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.457% | 0.2R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.457% | 0.2R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.457% | 0.2R | -8.175% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1759 min
MAE in 1314 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.