Short Trade on NIL

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01 Oct 2026 at 16:15:10 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1610.41 NIL at 0.0834$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08132 (2.49 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08837 (5.96 %)

NIL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 16:15 → 22:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.0834$

Qty 1610.4097 NIL

Size 134.3146$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08132 (+2.49%)

TP $ 3.35$

SL 0.08837 (-5.96%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.42

Status loss PnL -0.23% / -0.31$ MAE -1.67% MFE +0.18% 0.0R expires 01 Oct 22:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 170418)

#77 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 16:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1116

Quality Score

0.367

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#77 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.96 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#77 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

95 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.96 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	0.56×ATR
4h	near	-0.75×ATR
1d	clear	2.67×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-2 OK

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

btc OK

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

2.2M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 16:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 01/10 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 14:00 Score : -4 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

01/10 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 14:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4585

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	range 0.25	range 0
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 40.6%

Macro btc_led_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	91.7%
1h	8.3%
4h	63.3%
24h	53.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	75.0%	+0.21%
4h	25.0%	+0.16%
24h	26.7%	+0.40%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.120

Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 01/10 16:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5682

Score SMA

0.6423

Rank

#44 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4267

Rank Norm SMA

0.5305

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7143	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 10.39% · r3d: -12.95% · ema21_slope: 6.4017% · dist_ema21: 12.954%
Force Relative	25%	0.5253	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 10.40% · rs_3d: -11.97% · beta_24h: 0.660
Volume	20%	0.4418	rvol_20: 0.86× · zscore_50: 0.369 · trend: 70.15%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8950	ADX: 47.4 (trend) · Chop: 11.2 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 18.229% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.3672

Score SMA

0.4213

Rank

#77 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1116

Rank Norm SMA

0.1674

Calculé le

01/10/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3211	r1h: 0.036% · r4h: -1.837% · r1d: -3.29% · r3d: -5.38% · ema21_slope: -0.1964% · dist_ema21: -1.844%
Force Relative	25%	0.3440	rs_1h: 0.208% · rs_4h: -2.429% · rs_1d: -4.53% · rs_3d: -6.90% · beta_24h: -0.646
Volume	20%	0.1537	rvol_20: 0.22× · zscore_50: -0.694 · trend: -63.70%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4361	ADX: 11.4 (weak) · Chop: 57.8 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.560% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.2655

Score SMA

0.4114

Rank

#77 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0066

Rank Norm SMA

0.1624

Calculé le

01/10/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3623	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.837% · r1d: -3.29% · r3d: -5.38% · ema21_slope: -0.3624% · dist_ema21: -5.203%
Force Relative	25%	0.2103	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.429% · rs_1d: -4.53% · rs_3d: -6.90% · beta_24h: 4.923
Volume	20%	0.1476	rvol_20: 0.24× · zscore_50: -0.787 · trend: -69.78%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4782	ADX: 16.0 (weak) · Chop: 57.4 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 7.547% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.959% (0.0050)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.023%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.0×	48
6h ★	+0.178%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.1×	72
8h	+1.899%	0.3R	-1.668%	0.3R	1.1×	96
12h	+3.531%	0.6R	-1.668%	0.3R	2.1×	144
24h	+7.456%	1.3R	-1.668%	0.3R	4.5×	288
48h	+7.456%	1.3R	-3.150%	0.5R	2.4×	576
72h	+7.456%	1.3R	-9.513%	1.6R	0.8×	864

⏱ MFE in 1339 min MAE in 39 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.47

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_high	64%	noisy_chop 45%	early	—	—	0.30	bull_high	+12.59%	+1.00	29/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early	near -0.8ATR	—	0.13	bull_high	+2.03%	-0.40	01/10 08:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	0.10	bull_medium_confirmed	+1.11%	-0.37	01/10 14:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	63%	noisy_chop 36%	early	—	—	0.04	range_low	+0.71%	-0.01	01/10 15:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #187723	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.827	volatile_reversal	bull_high	64%	noisy_chop 45%	early 6b 0.5ATR	—	—	0.86	93%	↑ +0.99	below_value	-14.87	—	#101614	0.30	bull_high	+12.59%	+1.00	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 20:25
4h #194251	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.487	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early 6b -0.6ATR	near -0.8ATR	—	0.54	69%	↓ -0.18	below_value	-10.96	—	#104424	0.13	bull_high	+2.03%	-0.40	01/10 08:00 upd 01/10 12:17
1h anchor #195420	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.411	compression	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 37%	early 4b -0.9ATR	—	—	1.30	25%	↓ -0.29	below_value	-11.49	—	#104967	0.10	bull_medium_confirmed	+1.11%	-0.37	01/10 14:00 upd 01/10 15:11
15m #195735	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.388	compression	bear_high	63%	noisy_chop 36%	early 16b -0.4ATR	—	—	0.04	1%	↓ -0.83	below_value	-11.49	—	#104967	0.04	range_low	+0.71%	-0.01	01/10 15:45 upd 01/10 16:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	6b	—	4.016×ATR	p46	+0.47×ATR	p38
4h	↓ down	early	6b	—	2.251×ATR	p7	-0.586×ATR	p32
1h	↑ up	early	4b	—	0.966×ATR	p6	-0.916×ATR	p47
15m	↓ down	early	16b	—	2.13×ATR	p20	-0.39×ATR	p20

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.08837168
tp_price: 0.0813189
atr: 0.00198707
expires_at: 2026-10-02T02:15:10+00:00

Details

rank: 73
total: 77
score: 0.3058
delta_2h: -0.1123
extension_atr: -0.47
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1099
confidence: 0.947

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.0834	0.08837	0.08132	0.42	0.0712

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.0834
Stop Loss: 0.08837
Take Profit: 0.08132

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08837 - 0.0834 = 0.00497
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.0834 - 0.08132 = 0.00208
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00208 / 0.00497 = 0.4185

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
134.3146	100	1610.4097	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00497

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00497 = 1609.66

Taille de position USD = 1609.66 x 0.0834 = 134.25

Donc, tu peux acheter 1609.66 avec un stoploss a 0.08837

Avec un position size USD de 134.25$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1609.66 x 0.00497 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1609.66 x 0.00208 = 3.35

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.35$

Résumé

Taille de position 1609.66
Taille de position USD 134.25
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.35
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4185

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.49 %	3.35 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.96 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-0.31 $	-0.23

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.6679 %	27.99 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.0834	0.08837	0.08132	0.42	0.0712

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.0834
Stop Loss: 0.08837
Take Profit: 0.08132

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08837 - 0.0834 = 0.00497
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.0834 - 0.08132 = 0.00208
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00208 / 0.00497 = 0.4185

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.959% (0.0050)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.023%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.0×	48
6h ★	+0.178%	0.0R	-1.668%	0.3R	0.1×	72
8h	+1.899%	0.3R	-1.668%	0.3R	1.1×	96
12h	+3.531%	0.6R	-1.668%	0.3R	2.1×	144
24h	+7.456%	1.3R	-1.668%	0.3R	4.5×	288
48h	+7.456%	1.3R	-3.150%	0.5R	2.4×	576
72h	+7.456%	1.3R	-9.513%	1.6R	0.8×	864

⏱ MFE in 1339 min MAE in 39 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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