Short Trade on VVV (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 7.33 VVV at 26.718$ per unit. Take profit: 23.9896 (10.21 %) & Stop Loss: 27.8094 (4.08 %)
01 Oct 2026 at 16:22:27
hyperliquid
VVV
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Oct 2026 16:22
→ 00:50
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 26.718$
Qty 7.3302 VVV
Size 195.8482$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 23.9896 (+10.21%)
TP $ 20$
SL 27.8094 (-4.08%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-4.08%
/ -8$
MAE -10.44%
MFE +2.01%
0.5R
expires
02 Oct 04:22
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 170416)
#17 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 16:00
score du 01/10/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3517
Quality Score
0.541
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#17 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.08 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#17 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.08 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.30×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.20×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.04×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
10.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 16:17
01/10 16:17
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 15:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4586
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
72.2%
Macro
broad_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 68.3% |
| 1h | 68.3% |
| 4h | 88.3% |
| 24h | 58.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 65.0% | +0.06% |
| 4h | 75.0% | +1.67% |
| 24h | 30.0% | +0.50% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.173
Universe :
60
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
01/10 16:16
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5078
Score SMA
0.5540
Rank
#60
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2133
Rank Norm SMA
0.2525
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6259 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 2.74% · r3d: -5.50% · ema21_slope: 1.8559% · dist_ema21: 4.080% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5764 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.75% · rs_3d: -4.52% · beta_24h: 1.075 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2186 | rvol_20: 0.50× · zscore_50: -0.285 · trend: -21.83% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8812 | ADX: 56.8 (trend) · Chop: 49.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.579% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5405
Score SMA
0.4793
Rank
#17
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3517
Rank Norm SMA
0.2889
Calculé le
01/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3453 | r1h: -2.509% · r4h: -1.587% · r1d: -2.11% · r3d: -1.50% · ema21_slope: -0.0531% · dist_ema21: -2.464% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2902 | rs_1h: -2.337% · rs_4h: -2.179% · rs_1d: -3.35% · rs_3d: -3.02% · beta_24h: 2.437 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 10.91× · zscore_50: 5.987 · trend: 236.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5973 | ADX: 16.8 (weak) · Chop: 43.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.360% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3865
Score SMA
0.4071
Rank
#71
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1250
Rank Norm SMA
0.0850
Calculé le
01/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3326 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.587% · r1d: -2.11% · r3d: -1.50% · ema21_slope: -0.2149% · dist_ema21: -3.391% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2858 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.179% · rs_1d: -3.35% · rs_3d: -3.02% · beta_24h: 2.462 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6895 | rvol_20: 2.58× · zscore_50: 1.363 · trend: -0.49% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4239 | ADX: 23.4 (weak) · Chop: 71.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.5842 | ATR%: 4.248% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.085%
(1.0914)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.254% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.681% | 0.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -1.475% | 0.4R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.014% | 0.5R | -10.439% | 2.6R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 217 min
MAE in 867 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.74
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.38 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.49 | 29/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.28 | bull_high | +2.58% | -0.43 | 01/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.38 | bull_medium_confirmed | +0.91% | -0.47 | 01/10 15:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | bull_low | +0.84% | -0.24 | 01/10 16:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#187717
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.626 | expansion | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 9b 0.3ATR | — | — | 0.50 | 67% | ↓ -0.18 | value | -4.99 | — | #101612 | 0.38 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.49 |
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:25
|
|
4h
#195885
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.522 | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early 3b -0.9ATR | near -1.2ATR | — | 2.58 | 84% | ↓ -0.49 | above_value | -2.01 | — | #105121 | 0.28 | bull_high | +2.58% | -0.43 |
01/10 12:00
upd 01/10 16:18
|
|
1h
anchor #195884
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.466 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid 2b -1.1ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 10.91 | 100% | ↑ +0.66 | above_value | -2.01 | — | #105121 | 0.38 | bull_medium_confirmed | +0.91% | -0.47 |
01/10 15:00
upd 01/10 16:18
|
|
15m
#195967
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | 0.415 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 3b -1.2ATR | — | — | 0.65 | 88% | ↑ +0.88 | above_value | -2.01 | — | #105121 | 0.58 | bull_low | +0.84% | -0.24 |
01/10 16:00
upd 01/10 16:21
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 9b | — | 2.366×ATR | p4 | +0.321×ATR | p13 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.345×ATR | p3 | -0.926×ATR | p58 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 1.837×ATR | p14 | -1.05×ATR | p69 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 3b | — | 1.974×ATR | p6 | -1.233×ATR | p77 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7431
- reason: down_bo width=1.69×ATR dur=32b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 27.80937577
- tp_price: 23.98956057
- atr:
- score: 0.74312973563082
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T08:22:19.979875
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.74312973563082
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0593
- obi_top10 : 0.0573
- micro_price : 26.63282857
- spread_pct : 0.063845
- mid_price : 26.6355
- bid_wall_price : 26.3
- bid_wall_size : 2390.74
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 26.7
- ask_wall_size : 2302.702
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0448
- obi_top5_std : 0.0315
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6956
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
28.26
- balance_zone_bottom:
27.238
- balance_zone_mid:
27.749
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790773200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790884800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.6927
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
32
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7431
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790881200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
27.238
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8125
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8613
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.60375773 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
32
inside_close_ratio
0.8125
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8613
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:22 | 26.71800000 | 0% |
| 2 | 16:34 | 26.71800000 | 0% |
| 3 | 16:45 | 26.41800000 | -1.123% |
| 4 | 16:57 | 26.41800000 | -1.123% |
| 5 | 17:10 | 26.59800000 | -0.449% |
| 6 | 17:22 | 26.59800000 | -0.449% |
| 7 | 17:33 | 26.59800000 | -0.449% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6956ms
Confidence avant OB :
74%
→
74%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.059
avg 0.045
± 0.032
OBI Top 10
0.057
Microstructure
Mid Price
26.6355
Micro Price
26.6328
Spread
0.0638%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
26.3000
Size
2,390.74
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
26.7000
Size
2,302.70
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.718 | 27.8094 | 23.9896 | 2.5 | 23.17 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 26.718
- Stop Loss: 27.8094
- Take Profit: 23.9896
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 27.8094 - 26.718 = 1.0914
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 26.718 - 23.9896 = 2.7284
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.7284 / 1.0914 = 2.4999
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 195.8482 | 100 | 7.3302 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.0914
Taille de position = 8 / 1.0914 = 7.33
Taille de position USD = 7.33 x 26.718 = 195.84
Donc, tu peux acheter 7.33 avec un stoploss a 27.8094
Avec un position size USD de 195.84$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 7.33 x 1.0914 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 7.33 x 2.7284 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 7.33
- Taille de position USD 195.84
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4999
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 10.21 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.08 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -4.08 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.2294 % | 103.54 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.718 | 27.8094 | 23.9896 | 2.5 | 23.17 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 26.718
- Stop Loss: 27.8094
- Take Profit: 23.9896
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 27.8094 - 26.718 = 1.0914
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 26.718 - 23.9896 = 2.7284
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.7284 / 1.0914 = 2.4999
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.085%
(1.0914)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.254% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.681% | 0.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -1.475% | 0.4R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.014% | 0.5R | -10.439% | 2.6R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +2.014% | 0.5R | -13.508% | 3.3R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 217 min
MAE in 867 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.