Long Trade on ETH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.17 ETH at 2738.1$ per unit. Take profit: 2854.5959 (4.25 %) & Stop Loss: 2691.5017 (1.7 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 00:41:10
hyperliquid
ETH
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 00:41
→ 12:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 2738.1$
Qty 0.1717 ETH
Size 470.0767$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 2854.5959 (+4.25%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2691.5017 (-1.7%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.70%
/ -8$
MAE -1.87%
MFE +1.51%
0.9R
expires
02 Oct 12:41
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 171211)
#36 / 78
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 00:00
score du 02/10/2026 00:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4898
Quality Score
0.483
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#36 / 78
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#36 / 78
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.88×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.08×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 3.69×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.12B $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 00:30
02/10 00:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 01/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1) 01/10 23:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4619
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bull
0.90 |
exhaustion
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
64.4%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 80.0% |
| 1h | 28.3% |
| 4h | 78.3% |
| 24h | 38.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 75.0% | +0.60% |
| 4h | 45.0% | +0.82% |
| 24h | 15.0% | -0.56% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.126
Universe :
60
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 00:31
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5925
Score SMA
0.5928
Rank
#24
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6974
Rank Norm SMA
0.4492
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6960 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.74% · r3d: 0.64% · ema21_slope: 0.4600% · dist_ema21: 3.215% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4932 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.73% · rs_3d: -1.01% · beta_24h: 0.970 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2903 | rvol_20: 0.86× · zscore_50: -0.306 · trend: -9.67% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7572 | ADX: 42.4 (trend) · Chop: 50.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.8873 | ATR%: 3.338% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4827
Score SMA
0.5214
Rank
#36
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4898
Rank Norm SMA
0.4910
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5371 | r1h: -0.055% · r4h: 0.514% · r1d: 0.88% · r3d: 2.08% · ema21_slope: 0.0297% · dist_ema21: 0.644% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4547 | rs_1h: -0.429% · rs_4h: -0.246% · rs_1d: -1.21% · rs_3d: -0.87% · beta_24h: 1.150 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2117 | rvol_20: 0.61× · zscore_50: -0.496 · trend: -29.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4368 | ADX: 11.8 (weak) · Chop: 58.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.604% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.5044
Score SMA
0.5166
Rank
#31
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6276
Rank Norm SMA
0.4253
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5549 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.514% · r1d: 0.88% · r3d: 2.08% · ema21_slope: 0.0208% · dist_ema21: 1.044% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4730 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.246% · rs_1d: -1.21% · rs_3d: -0.87% · beta_24h: 1.259 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2747 | rvol_20: 0.74× · zscore_50: -0.163 · trend: -14.89% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4313 | ADX: 21.6 (weak) · Chop: 69.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.278% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.702%
(46.5983)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.362% | 0.2R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.362% | 0.2R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 1.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.508% | 0.9R | -1.866% | 1.1R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 213 min
MAE in 838 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.32
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.91 | bull_high | +13.92% | -0.21 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near 0.5ATR | near -0.1ATR | 0.84 | bull_high | +3.48% | -0.08 | 01/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | near -0.9ATR | 0.86 | bull_medium | +1.75% | -0.09 | 01/10 23:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bull_low_confirmed |
31%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | — | 0.91 | bull_low_confirmed | +2.71% | -0.08 | 02/10 00:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197477
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | grind | 0.632 | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 16b 0.9ATR | — | — | 0.86 | 65% | ↔ -0.13 | value | +0.98 | — | #105766 | 0.91 | bull_high | +13.92% | -0.21 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:15
|
|
4h
#199118
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.646 | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 11b 0.9ATR | near 0.5ATR | near -0.1ATR | 0.74 | 46% | ↔ -0.09 | above_value | +1.86 | — | #106467 | 0.84 | bull_high | +3.48% | -0.08 |
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 00:12
|
|
1h
anchor #199117
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.593 | compression | bull_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid 12b 1.1ATR | — | near -0.9ATR | 0.61 | 44% | ↓ -0.43 | above_value | +1.86 | — | #106467 | 0.86 | bull_medium | +1.75% | -0.09 |
01/10 23:00
upd 02/10 00:12
|
|
15m
#199357
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.527 | volatile_reversal | bull_low_confirmed |
31%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late 1b 3.3ATR | — | — | 4.40 | 97% | ↑ +0.60 | above_value | +1.86 | — | #106467 | 0.91 | bull_low_confirmed | +2.71% | -0.08 |
02/10 00:15
upd 02/10 00:30
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 16b | — | 3.874×ATR | p18 | +0.904×ATR | p49 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 11b | — | 1.803×ATR | p3 | +0.875×ATR | p59 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 12b | — | 2.852×ATR | p55 | +1.058×ATR | p67 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 1b | — | 3.575×ATR | p81 | +3.256×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.7573
- reason: up_bo width=2.78×ATR dur=62b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 2691.50165155
- tp_price: 2854.59587113
- atr:
- score: 0.85727754018497
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T16:41:02.213020
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.85727754018497
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.117
- obi_top10 : -0.117
- micro_price : 2737.64008916
- spread_pct : 0.000365
- mid_price : 2737.645
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2057
- obi_top5_std : 0.0663
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7166
- aggregation_tick : 10
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2717.95
- balance_zone_bottom:
2668.6
- balance_zone_mid:
2693.275
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790694000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790913600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7829
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
62
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8573
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790906400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2717.95
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9032
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1363
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
15
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 17.73348453 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
62
inside_close_ratio
0.9032
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1363
Signaux confirmants (20)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:41 | 2738.10000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 00:51 | 2738.10000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 01:03 | 2738.10000000 | 0% |
| 4 | 01:16 | 2739.10000000 | +0.037% |
| 5 | 01:27 | 2739.10000000 | +0.037% |
| 6 | 01:40 | 2727.60000000 | -0.383% |
| 7 | 01:52 | 2727.60000000 | -0.383% |
| 8 | 02:06 | 2727.60000000 | -0.383% |
| 9 | 02:19 | 2725.40000000 | -0.464% |
| 10 | 02:31 | 2725.40000000 | -0.464% |
| 11 | 02:43 | 2734.20000000 | -0.142% |
| 12 | 02:54 | 2734.20000000 | -0.142% |
| 13 | 03:07 | 2727.90000000 | -0.373% |
| 14 | 03:19 | 2727.90000000 | -0.373% |
| 15 | 03:30 | 2727.90000000 | -0.373% |
| 16 | 03:43 | 2726.10000000 | -0.438% |
| 17 | 03:54 | 2726.10000000 | -0.438% |
| 18 | 04:08 | 2740.50000000 | +0.088% |
| 19 | 04:21 | 2740.50000000 | +0.088% |
| 20 | 04:32 | 2740.50000000 | +0.088% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7166ms
Confidence avant OB :
86%
→
76%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.117
avg -0.206
± 0.066
OBI Top 10
-0.117
Microstructure
Mid Price
2,737.6450
Micro Price
2,737.6401
Spread
0.0004%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2738.1 | 2691.5017 | 2854.5959 | 2.5 | 2222 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2738.1
- Stop Loss: 2691.5017
- Take Profit: 2854.5959
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2691.5017 - 2738.1 = -46.5983
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2738.1 - 2854.5959 = -116.4959
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -116.4959 / -46.5983 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 470.0767 | 100 | 0.1717 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -46.5983
Taille de position = 8 / -46.5983 = -0.17
Taille de position USD = -0.17 x 2738.1 = -465.48
Donc, tu peux acheter -0.17 avec un stoploss a 2691.5017
Avec un position size USD de -465.48$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -0.17 x -46.5983 = 7.92
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.92$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -0.17 x -116.4959 = 19.8
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.8$
Résumé
- Taille de position -0.17
- Taille de position USD -465.48
- Perte potentielle 7.92
- Gain potentiel 19.8
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.25 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.7 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.70 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.753 % | 103.01 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2738.1 | 2691.5017 | 2854.5959 | 2.5 | 2222 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2738.1
- Stop Loss: 2691.5017
- Take Profit: 2854.5959
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2691.5017 - 2738.1 = -46.5983
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2738.1 - 2854.5959 = -116.4959
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -116.4959 / -46.5983 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.702%
(46.5983)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.362% | 0.2R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.362% | 0.2R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 1.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -0.931% | 0.6R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.508% | 0.9R | -1.866% | 1.1R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.508% | 0.9R | -3.181% | 1.9R | 0.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 213 min
MAE in 838 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
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