Short Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 852.27 ARB at 0.192$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1873 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2015 (4.89 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 16:15:08
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 16:15
→ 22:15
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.1921$
Qty 852.267 ARB
Size 163.7461$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1873 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.09$
SL 0.2015 (-4.89%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 0.51
Status
loss
PnL
-2.89%
/ -4.74$
MAE -3.38%
MFE +0.43%
0.1R
expires
02 Oct 22:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 172771)
#31 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 16:00
score du 02/10/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4064
Quality Score
0.502
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#31 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#31 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.85×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.26×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.06×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
N/A
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
N/A
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
LOW
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
N/A
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-4.97
OK
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
N/A
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
16.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 16:00
02/10 16:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/10 15:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4681
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
early_expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
6.1%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 57.6% |
| 1h | 48.5% |
| 4h | 3.0% |
| 24h | 18.2% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 45.5% | +0.04% |
| 4h | 9.1% | -4.97% |
| 24h | 22.7% | -3.36% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.260
Universe :
66
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 16:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4649
Score SMA
0.5443
Rank
#62
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1974
Rank Norm SMA
0.2591
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5923 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.57% · r3d: -1.04% · ema21_slope: 1.7921% · dist_ema21: 2.994% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5133 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.04% · rs_3d: -2.69% · beta_24h: 1.517 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2000 | rvol_20: 0.35× · zscore_50: -0.518 · trend: -24.07% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7923 | ADX: 47.2 (trend) · Chop: 50.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.568% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5016
Score SMA
0.4890
Rank
#31
/ 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4064
Rank Norm SMA
0.3163
Calculé le
02/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2504 | r1h: -1.728% · r4h: -6.154% · r1d: -4.90% · r3d: -6.90% · ema21_slope: -0.0407% · dist_ema21: -5.254% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2019 | rs_1h: -1.786% · rs_4h: -4.940% · rs_1d: -4.49% · rs_3d: -7.75% · beta_24h: 2.107 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9688 | rvol_20: 2.90× · zscore_50: 2.779 · trend: 124.75% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6720 | ADX: 20.6 (weak) · Chop: 31.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.088% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3497
Score SMA
0.4254
Rank
#76
/ 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1242
Rank Norm SMA
0.1286
Calculé le
02/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2416 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -6.154% · r1d: -4.90% · r3d: -6.90% · ema21_slope: -0.1939% · dist_ema21: -5.994% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1852 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -4.940% · rs_1d: -4.49% · rs_3d: -7.75% · beta_24h: 2.437 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6274 | rvol_20: 2.26× · zscore_50: 1.240 · trend: -3.08% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4826 | ADX: 16.6 (weak) · Chop: 57.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6519 | ATR%: 4.044% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.893%
(0.0094)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -0.791% | 0.2R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -0.791% | 0.2R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -2.514% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.427% | 0.1R | -3.378% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -3.982% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -3.982% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -6.309% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 48h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -6.778% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -9.261% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 4 min
MAE in 1064 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.51
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
70%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.99 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.34 | bull_high | +1.76% | -0.81 | 02/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
48%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.45 | range_medium | -0.23% | -0.37 | 02/10 15:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
56%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.71 | bear_low | -1.15% | -0.41 | 02/10 15:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197502
|
↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.622 | expansion | bull_high |
70%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 8b 0.2ATR | — | — | 0.35 | 83% | ↔ -0.06 | below_value | -7.53 | — | #105771 | 0.58 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.99 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:17
|
|
4h
#205647
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.478 | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late 19b -1.8ATR | — | — | 2.26 | 62% | ↔ +0.08 | below_value | -3.56 | — | #109285 | 0.34 | bull_high | +1.76% | -0.81 |
02/10 12:00
upd 02/10 16:13
|
|
1h
anchor #205646
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.539 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
48%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 3b -2.7ATR | near -0.9ATR | — | 2.90 | 94% | ↑ +0.54 | below_value | -3.56 | inside | #109285 | 0.45 | range_medium | -0.23% | -0.37 |
02/10 15:00
upd 02/10 16:13
|
|
15m
#205556
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.619 | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
56%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late 14b -2.9ATR | — | — | 0.32 | 63% | ↑ +0.66 | above_value | -2.89 | — | #109121 | 0.71 | bear_low | -1.15% | -0.41 |
02/10 15:45
upd 02/10 16:00
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 2.659×ATR | p10 | +0.226×ATR | p9 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 19b | — | 3.257×ATR | p59 | -1.765×ATR | p80 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 3.63×ATR | p82 | -2.698×ATR | p98 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 14b | — | 6.35×ATR | p100 | -2.938×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.20151673
- tp_price: 0.18732675
- atr: 0.00375469
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T02:15:08+00:00
Details
- rank: 79
- total: 84
- score: 0.2504
- delta_2h: -0.2056
- extension_atr: -2.28
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.4064
- confidence: 0.94
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1921 | 0.2015 | 0.1873 | 0.51 | 0.1338 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1921
- Stop Loss: 0.2015
- Take Profit: 0.1873
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2015 - 0.1921 = 0.0094
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1921 - 0.1873 = 0.0048
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0048 / 0.0094 = 0.5106
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163.7461 | 100 | 852.267 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0094
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0094 = 851.06
Taille de position USD = 851.06 x 0.1921 = 163.49
Donc, tu peux acheter 851.06 avec un stoploss a 0.2015
Avec un position size USD de 163.49$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 851.06 x 0.0094 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 851.06 x 0.0048 = 4.09
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.09$
Résumé
- Taille de position 851.06
- Taille de position USD 163.49
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.09
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5106
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.09 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.89 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.74 $ | -2.89 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0973 % | 63.3 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1921 | 0.2015 | 0.1873 | 0.51 | 0.1338 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1921
- Stop Loss: 0.2015
- Take Profit: 0.1873
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2015 - 0.1921 = 0.0094
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1921 - 0.1873 = 0.0048
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0048 / 0.0094 = 0.5106
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.893%
(0.0094)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -0.791% | 0.2R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -0.791% | 0.2R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -2.514% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.427% | 0.1R | -3.378% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -3.982% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -3.982% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -6.309% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 48h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -6.778% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.427% | 0.1R | -9.261% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 4 min
MAE in 1064 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.