Short Trade on SKR

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02 Oct 2026 at 18:46:51 hyperliquid

Short Trade on SKR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 21581.38 SKR at 0.0169$ per unit. Take profit: 0.01596 (5.45 %) & Stop Loss: 0.01725 (2.19 %)

SKR SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 18:46 → 23:30 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.01688$

Qty 21581.3753 SKR

Size 364.3584$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 0.01596 (+5.45%)

TP $ 19.85$

SL 0.01725 (-2.19%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.49

Status loss PnL -2.19% / -7.99$ MAE -3.59% MFE +0.75% 0.3R expires 03 Oct 06:46

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: )

#64 / 82

OUT

seuil : top 15

Avg Rank 8h:

Quality Score

N/A

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#64 / 82

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

75 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

N/A

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.19 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#64 / 82

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

75 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.19 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	—
4h	clear	—
1d	clear	—

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	—	—	OK
4h	—	—	OK
1d	—	—	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

636,639 $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 18:32

Coin Market Regime V2
—

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4692

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	early_expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	transition

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 46.2%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	69.2%
1h	73.9%
4h	70.8%
24h	26.2%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	69.2%	+0.08%
4h	60.0%	+0.46%
24h	29.2%	-1.55%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.148

Universe : 65 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 18:46 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Quality score non disponible pour ce trade.

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.192% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.404%	0.6R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.789%	0.8R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.943%	0.9R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.000%	0.0R	-3.590%	1.6R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.752%	0.3R	-3.590%	1.6R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.752%	0.3R	-4.568%	2.1R	0.2×	288
36h	+0.752%	0.3R	-5.717%	2.6R	0.1×	432
48h	+0.752%	0.3R	-7.784%	3.6R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.752%	0.3R	-10.788%	4.9R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 618 min MAE in 2023 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.14

Prediction Score: N/A

No context market snapshot

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.7483
reason: down_bo width=2.82×ATR dur=30b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
stop_price: 0.01725369
tp_price: 0.01595627
atr:
score: 0.84833530730782
expires_at: 2026-10-03T10:46:43.476129
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.84833530730782

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.1558
obi_top10 : 0.2947
micro_price : 0.01692619
spread_pct : 0.094568
mid_price : 0.016927
bid_wall_price :
bid_wall_size :
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.0171
ask_wall_size : 1466747
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.1558
obi_top5_std : 0.0001
pressure_side : bid
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6918
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.017551
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.016911
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.017231
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790874000
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790978400
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.8203
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
30
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8483
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790974800
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.016911
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8333
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.1234
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
4
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
6
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.00022693

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8333

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.1234

Signaux confirmants (3)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	18:46	0.01688300	+0.018%
2	18:56	0.01688300	+0.018%
3	19:08	0.01688300	+0.018%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6918ms Confidence avant OB : 85% → 75%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.156

avg 0.156 ± 0.000

OBI Top 10 0.295

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0169

Micro Price

0.0169

Spread

0.0946%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.0171

Size

1,466,747.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.01688	0.01725	0.01596	2.49	0.008803

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.01688
Stop Loss: 0.01725
Take Profit: 0.01596

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.01725 - 0.01688 = 0.00037
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.01688 - 0.01596 = 0.00092
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00092 / 0.00037 = 2.4865

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
364.3584	100	21581.3753	4.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00037

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00037 = 21621.62

Taille de position USD = 21621.62 x 0.01688 = 364.97

Donc, tu peux acheter 21621.62 avec un stoploss a 0.01725

Avec un position size USD de 364.97$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 21621.62 x 0.00037 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 21621.62 x 0.00092 = 19.89

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.89$

Résumé

Taille de position 21621.62
Taille de position USD 364.97
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 19.89
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4865

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
5.45 %	19.85 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.19 %	7.99 $

PNL	PNL %
-7.99 $	-2.19

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.3164 %	105.68 %	0

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.01688	0.01725	0.01596	2.49	0.008803

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.01688
Stop Loss: 0.01725
Take Profit: 0.01596

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.01725 - 0.01688 = 0.00037
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.01688 - 0.01596 = 0.00092
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00092 / 0.00037 = 2.4865

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.01596
            [entry_price] => 0.01688
            [stop_loss] => 0.017287
            [rr_ratio] => 2.26
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-03 03:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.01596
            [entry_price] => 0.01688
            [stop_loss] => 0.017324
            [rr_ratio] => 2.07
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-03 03:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.01596
            [entry_price] => 0.01688
            [stop_loss] => 0.017361
            [rr_ratio] => 1.91
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-03 03:50:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.01596
            [entry_price] => 0.01688
            [stop_loss] => 0.017435
            [rr_ratio] => 1.66
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-03 04:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.192% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.404%	0.6R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.789%	0.8R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.943%	0.9R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.000%	0.0R	-3.590%	1.6R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.752%	0.3R	-3.590%	1.6R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.752%	0.3R	-4.568%	2.1R	0.2×	288
36h	+0.752%	0.3R	-5.717%	2.6R	0.1×	432
48h	+0.752%	0.3R	-7.784%	3.6R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.752%	0.3R	-10.788%	4.9R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 618 min MAE in 2023 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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