02 Oct 2026 at 20:13:47 hyperliquid

Long Trade on BCH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1.67 BCH at 311.61$ per unit. Take profit: 323.5552 (3.83 %) & Stop Loss: 306.8319 (1.53 %)

BCH LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 20:13 → 08:10 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 311.61$

Qty 1.6743 BCH

Size 521.7331$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)

Risk Setup

TP 323.5552 (+3.83%)

TP $ 20$

SL 306.8319 (-1.53%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -0.02% / -0.1$ MAE -0.99% MFE +0.87% 0.6R expires 03 Oct 08:13 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 173201)
#36 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6409

Quality Score
0.536
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#36 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.53 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#36 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.53 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.27×ATR
4h clear 1.53×ATR
1d clear 1.78×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
3.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 20:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

02/10 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (-1)

02/10 18:00

Score : +4 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4697
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational bull

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

transition

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.97
Transition risk : 0.03
Score contribution (this trade) +3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 58.5%
Macro broad_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 49.2%
1h 86.2%
4h 81.5%
24h 27.7%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 47.7% +0.00%
4h 76.9% +1.41%
24h 36.9% -1.04%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.134
Universe : 65 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.98
Snapshot évalué : 02/10 20:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5004
Score SMA
0.5628
Rank
#50 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3553
Rank Norm SMA
0.3357
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6815 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.02% · r3d: -0.25% · ema21_slope: 2.0220% · dist_ema21: 5.944%
Force Relative 25% 0.4882 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.45% · rs_3d: -1.91% · beta_24h: 1.233
Volume 20% 0.2355 rvol_20: 0.38× · zscore_50: -0.173 · trend: -14.72%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8451 ADX: 41.4 (trend) · Chop: 28.0 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 6.492% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5361
Score SMA
0.4943
Rank
#36 / 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6409
Rank Norm SMA
0.3793
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6035 r1h: 1.020% · r4h: 2.481% · r1d: 0.76% · r3d: 1.33% · ema21_slope: -0.0556% · dist_ema21: 0.610%
Force Relative 25% 0.6083 rs_1h: 1.065% · rs_4h: 2.243% · rs_1d: 1.17% · rs_3d: 0.30% · beta_24h: 1.427
Volume 20% 0.1510 rvol_20: 0.08× · zscore_50: -0.736 · trend: -50.37%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6855 ADX: 22.3 (weak) · Chop: 29.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.133% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4763
Score SMA
0.5016
Rank
#39 / 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5809
Rank Norm SMA
0.3783
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5741 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 2.481% · r1d: 0.76% · r3d: 1.33% · ema21_slope: -0.0428% · dist_ema21: 0.264%
Force Relative 25% 0.5038 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.243% · rs_1d: 1.17% · rs_3d: 0.30% · beta_24h: 1.483
Volume 20% 0.1499 rvol_20: 0.22× · zscore_50: -0.982 · trend: -38.52%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4703 ADX: 16.7 (weak) · Chop: 59.1 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.433% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.533% (4.7781)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.706% 0.5R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +0.873% 0.6R -0.000% 0.0R — 24
4h +0.873% 0.6R -0.485% 0.3R 1.8× 48
8h +0.873% 0.6R -0.988% 0.6R 0.9× 96
12h ★ +0.873% 0.6R -0.988% 0.6R 0.9× 144
24h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 288
36h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 432
48h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 576
72h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 1411 min MAE in 261 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.58
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition strong balanced expansion_after_compression bull_high
68%
noisy_chop 44% early — — 0.65 bull_high +13.92% +0.97 30/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate balanced normal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 34% early near -0.9ATR — 0.49 bull_high +1.76% -0.29 02/10 12:00
1h ↓ down range range strong balanced expansion bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 37% mid — — 0.40 range_medium +0.05% +0.07 02/10 18:00
15m ↔ neutral transition bearish_transition strong balanced compression range_medium
45%
choppy 56% late — near -0.6ATR 0.68 range_low -0.65% +0.33 02/10 19:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#197552
↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition strong balanced 0.670 expansion_after_compression bull_high
68%
noisy_chop 44% early 8b 0.7ATR — — 0.38 75% ↑ +0.69 above_value +0.43 — #105781 0.65 bull_high +13.92% +0.97
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:19
4h
#205667
↔ neutral range range moderate balanced 0.607 normal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 34% early 1b -0.9ATR near -0.9ATR — 2.24 88% ↑ +0.46 value -1.00 — #109295 0.49 bull_high +1.76% -0.29
02/10 12:00
upd 02/10 16:14
1h anchor
#206990
↓ down range range strong balanced 0.386 expansion bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 37% mid 4b -0.3ATR — — 0.06 1% ↔ +0.03 above_value +0.14 — #109890 0.40 range_medium +0.05% +0.07
02/10 18:00
upd 02/10 19:09
15m
#207332
↔ neutral transition bearish_transition strong balanced 0.654 compression range_medium
45%
choppy 56% late 20b 3.1ATR — near -0.6ATR 0.53 23% ↓ -0.74 above_value +0.14 — #109890 0.68 range_low -0.65% +0.33
02/10 19:45
upd 02/10 20:01
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 8b — 2.836×ATR p6 +0.689×ATR p41
4h ↓ down early 1b — 1.828×ATR p6 -0.928×ATR p52
1h ↑ up mid 4b — 3.421×ATR p79 -0.292×ATR p24
15m ↑ up late 20b — 11.093×ATR p100 +3.097×ATR p96

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.8239
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.05×ATR dur=56b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 306.83192462
  5. tp_price: 323.55518844
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.82386800564622
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-03T12:13:39.354641
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.82386800564622
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.0322
  14. obi_top10 : -0.098
  15. micro_price : 311.83381818
  16. spread_pct : 0.012829
  17. mid_price : 311.82
  18. bid_wall_price :
  19. bid_wall_size :
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price :
  22. ask_wall_size :
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0329
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0018
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6998
  30. aggregation_tick : 1
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    310.6
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    303.735
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    307.1675
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790787600
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790985600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.0457
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    56
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8239
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790982000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    310.6
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.6964
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.301
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    7
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    5
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 3.35575376
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
56
inside_close_ratio
0.6964
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.301

Signaux confirmants (26)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 20:13 311.61000000 0%
2 20:25 311.61000000 0%
3 20:35 313.81000000 +0.706%
4 20:46 313.81000000 +0.706%
5 20:56 313.81000000 +0.706%
6 21:07 312.28000000 +0.215%
7 21:17 312.28000000 +0.215%
8 21:26 312.28000000 +0.215%
9 21:36 313.96000000 +0.754%
10 21:46 313.96000000 +0.754%
11 21:55 313.96000000 +0.754%
12 22:07 312.54000000 +0.298%
13 22:18 312.54000000 +0.298%
14 22:28 312.54000000 +0.298%
15 22:38 312.30000000 +0.221%
16 22:48 312.30000000 +0.221%
17 22:58 312.30000000 +0.221%
18 23:09 312.35000000 +0.237%
19 23:19 312.35000000 +0.237%
20 23:29 312.35000000 +0.237%
21 23:39 311.67000000 +0.019%
22 23:49 311.67000000 +0.019%
23 23:58 311.67000000 +0.019%
24 00:11 310.80000000 -0.26%
25 00:22 310.80000000 -0.26%
26 00:31 310.80000000 -0.26%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6998ms Confidence avant OB : 82% → 82%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.032
avg -0.033 ± 0.002
OBI Top 10 -0.098

Microstructure

Mid Price
311.8200
Micro Price
311.8338
Spread
0.0128%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
311.61 306.8319 323.5552 2.5 200.75
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 311.61
  • Stop Loss: 306.8319
  • Take Profit: 323.5552

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 306.8319 - 311.61 = -4.7781

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 311.61 - 323.5552 = -11.9452

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -11.9452 / -4.7781 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
521.7331 100 1.6743 5.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -4.7781

Taille de position = 8 / -4.7781 = -1.67

Taille de position USD = -1.67 x 311.61 = -520.39

Donc, tu peux acheter -1.67 avec un stoploss a 306.8319

Avec un position size USD de -520.39$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -1.67 x -4.7781 = 7.98

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.98$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -1.67 x -11.9452 = 19.95

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.95$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -1.67
  • Taille de position USD -520.39
  • Perte potentielle 7.98
  • Gain potentiel 19.95
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
3.83 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.53 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-0.1 $ -0.02
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.9884 % 64.46 % 21
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
311.61 306.8319 323.5552 2.5 200.75
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 311.61
  • Stop Loss: 306.8319
  • Take Profit: 323.5552

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 306.8319 - 311.61 = -4.7781

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 311.61 - 323.5552 = -11.9452

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -11.9452 / -4.7781 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.533% (4.7781)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.706% 0.5R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +0.873% 0.6R -0.000% 0.0R — 24
4h +0.873% 0.6R -0.485% 0.3R 1.8× 48
8h +0.873% 0.6R -0.988% 0.6R 0.9× 96
12h ★ +0.873% 0.6R -0.988% 0.6R 0.9× 144
24h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 288
36h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 432
48h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 576
72h +3.565% 2.3R -0.988% 0.6R 3.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 1411 min MAE in 261 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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