Short Trade on PENGU

Previous Trade Next Trade

03 Oct 2026 at 02:15:14 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 21203.29 PENGU at 0.00895$ per unit. Take profit: 0.008731 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009332 (4.21 %)

PENGU SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 03 Oct 2026 02:15 → 08:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.008955$

Qty 21203.2865 PENGU

Size 189.8754$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.008731 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.75$

SL 0.009332 (-4.21%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 0.59

Status loss PnL -1.49% / -2.82$ MAE -2.00% MFE +0.52% 0.1R expires 03 Oct 08:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 173985)

#75 / 80

seuil : top 15
score du 03/10/2026 02:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0791

Quality Score

0.415

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#75 / 80

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.21 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#75 / 80

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.21 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.37×ATR
4h	clear	2.27×ATR
1d	clear	1.64×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

btc

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

-0.22

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

8.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
03/10 02:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/10 01:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

01/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/10 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

03/10 01:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4721

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	transition 0
Micro	range 0.25	compression

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 0.97

Transition risk : 0.03

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 30.1%

Macro btc_led_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	48.4%
1h	88.7%
4h	30.7%
24h	14.5%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	46.8%	+0.00%
4h	30.7%	-0.22%
24h	37.1%	-2.77%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.099

Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.98

Snapshot évalué : 03/10 02:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4088

Score SMA

0.5418

Rank

#79 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0602

Rank Norm SMA

0.3201

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4755	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: 1.2685% · dist_ema21: -1.183%
Force Relative	25%	0.2422	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 1.532
Volume	20%	0.4460	rvol_20: 1.23× · zscore_50: 0.467 · trend: 23.48%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7762	ADX: 36.8 (trend) · Chop: 41.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 10.478% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 03/10/2026 02:00

Score brut

0.4149

Score SMA

0.5126

Rank

#75 / 80

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0791

Rank Norm SMA

0.4338

Calculé le

03/10/2026 02:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2742	r1h: 0.584% · r4h: -0.334% · r1d: -9.44% · r3d: -9.12% · ema21_slope: -0.4681% · dist_ema21: -2.396%
Force Relative	25%	0.3284	rs_1h: 0.523% · rs_4h: -0.329% · rs_1d: -7.84% · rs_3d: -10.63% · beta_24h: 3.409
Volume	20%	0.1771	rvol_20: 0.32× · zscore_50: -0.343 · trend: -65.73%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7621	ADX: 31.5 (trend) · Chop: 31.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.790% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 03/10/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.3674

Score SMA

0.5096

Rank

#77 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0428

Rank Norm SMA

0.4202

Calculé le

03/10/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4259	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.650% · r1d: -6.25% · r3d: -8.69% · ema21_slope: -0.2363% · dist_ema21: -5.638%
Force Relative	25%	0.2788	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.443% · rs_1d: -5.29% · rs_3d: -10.36% · beta_24h: 3.054
Volume	20%	0.1827	rvol_20: 0.27× · zscore_50: -1.006 · trend: -12.66%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5874	ADX: 25.4 (trend) · Chop: 53.5 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.4529	ATR%: 4.641% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.210% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.045%	0.0R	-0.659%	0.2R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.525%	0.1R	-0.659%	0.2R	0.8×	24
4h	+0.525%	0.1R	-1.876%	0.5R	0.3×	48
6h ★	+0.525%	0.1R	-1.999%	0.5R	0.3×	72
8h	+0.525%	0.1R	-2.032%	0.5R	0.3×	96
12h	+0.525%	0.1R	-3.853%	0.9R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.525%	0.1R	-3.853%	0.9R	0.1×	288
48h	+0.525%	0.1R	-11.524%	2.7R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.525%	0.1R	-12.239%	2.9R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 104 min MAE in 514 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.79

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	volatile_reversal	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near 0.4ATR	0.72	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.83	01/10 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 39%	mid	—	—	0.57	bull_high	+2.13%	-0.78	02/10 20:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 48%	mid	—	—	0.55	range_medium	+0.12%	-0.70	03/10 01:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_medium	56%	noisy_chop 42%	early	—	—	0.69	range_low	-0.31%	-0.10	03/10 01:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #207694	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.644	volatile_reversal	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 37%	early 9b -0.1ATR	—	near 0.4ATR	1.23	90%	↑ +0.83	below_value	-5.22	—	#110100	0.72	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.83	01/10 20:00 upd 02/10 20:26
4h #209371	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.510	compression	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 39%	mid 4b -1.4ATR	—	—	0.27	29%	↔ -0.03	below_value	-5.52	—	#110854	0.57	bull_high	+2.13%	-0.78	02/10 20:00 upd 03/10 00:17
1h anchor #210183	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	0.269	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 48%	mid 11b -1.2ATR	—	—	0.32	28%	↓ -0.64	below_value	-6.04	—	#111260	0.55	range_medium	+0.12%	-0.70	03/10 01:00 upd 03/10 02:12
15m #210104	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.549	compression	bear_medium	56%	noisy_chop 42%	early 3b 0.0ATR	—	—	0.11	3%	↓ -0.26	below_value	-6.20	—	#111098	0.69	range_low	-0.31%	-0.10	03/10 01:45 upd 03/10 02:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	9b	—	2.405×ATR	p0	-0.095×ATR	p4
4h	↓ down	mid	4b	—	2.675×ATR	p19	-1.44×ATR	p69
1h	↑ up	mid	11b	—	1.973×ATR	p20	-1.167×ATR	p67
15m	↑ up	early	3b	—	1.444×ATR	p0	+0.036×ATR	p4

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.0093323
tp_price: 0.00873112
atr: 0.00015092
expires_at: 2026-10-03T12:15:14+00:00

Details

rank: 79
total: 82
score: 0.2755
delta_2h: -0.0419
extension_atr: -1.22
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0807
confidence: 0.963

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	02:15	0.00895500	0%
2	04:15	0.00894000	-0.168%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008955	0.009332	0.008731	0.59	0.004957

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008955
Stop Loss: 0.009332
Take Profit: 0.008731

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009332 - 0.008955 = 0.000377
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008955 - 0.008731 = 0.000224
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000224 / 0.000377 = 0.5942

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
189.8754	100	21203.2865	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.000377

Taille de position = 8 / 0.000377 = 21220.16

Taille de position USD = 21220.16 x 0.008955 = 190.03

Donc, tu peux acheter 21220.16 avec un stoploss a 0.009332

Avec un position size USD de 190.03$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 21220.16 x 0.000377 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 21220.16 x 0.000224 = 4.75

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.75$

Résumé

Taille de position 21220.16
Taille de position USD 190.03
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.75
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5942

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.75 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.21 %	7.99 $

PNL	PNL %
-2.82 $	-1.49

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.9989 %	47.48 %	8

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008955	0.009332	0.008731	0.59	0.004957

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008955
Stop Loss: 0.009332
Take Profit: 0.008731

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009332 - 0.008955 = 0.000377
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008955 - 0.008731 = 0.000224
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000224 / 0.000377 = 0.5942

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.210% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.045%	0.0R	-0.659%	0.2R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.525%	0.1R	-0.659%	0.2R	0.8×	24
4h	+0.525%	0.1R	-1.876%	0.5R	0.3×	48
6h ★	+0.525%	0.1R	-1.999%	0.5R	0.3×	72
8h	+0.525%	0.1R	-2.032%	0.5R	0.3×	96
12h	+0.525%	0.1R	-3.853%	0.9R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.525%	0.1R	-3.853%	0.9R	0.1×	288
48h	+0.525%	0.1R	-11.524%	2.7R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.525%	0.1R	-12.239%	2.9R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 104 min MAE in 514 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.