28 Oct 2026 at 22:15:36 hyperliquid

Short Trade on APT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 312.34 APT at 0.664$ per unit. Take profit: 0.6002 (9.64 %) & Stop Loss: 0.6898 (3.85 %)

APT SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 28 Oct 2026 22:15 → 10:15 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.6642$

Qty 312.3404 APT

Size 207.4565$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.6002 (+9.64%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.6898 (-3.85%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.60% / -5.4$ MAE -3.03% MFE +2.32% 0.6R expires 29 Oct 10:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 231548)
#56 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/10/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5220

Quality Score
0.454
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#56 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#56 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h clear 1.12×ATR
1d near -2.10×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
1.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/10 22:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

27/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

28/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

28/10 21:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7200
Voir snapshot →
range compression range_bound
Strategic range

0.25

compression

0

Operational range

0.25

compression

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.73
Transition risk : 0.27
Score contribution (this trade) 0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 11.6%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.266
Δ 4h
▼-0.736
Δ 12h
▼-0.051
Δ 24h
▼-0.632

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 14.3%
1h 6.1%
4h 6.1%
24h 26.5%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 16.3% -0.30%
4h 14.3% -2.03%
24h 28.6% -1.40%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
8.2%
Expansion
8.2%
Tail ↑
+0.50
Tail ↓
+0.22
Dispersion : 0.146
Universe : 49 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.84
Snapshot évalué : 28/10 22:01 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2910
Score SMA
0.2957
Rank
#56 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1538
Rank Norm SMA
0.2693
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3299 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.55% · r3d: -0.24% · ema21_slope: -0.5510% · dist_ema21: -7.746%
Force Relative 25% 0.3598 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.01% · rs_3d: -1.75% · beta_24h: 2.929
Volume 20% 0.1369 rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -1.076 · trend: -43.54%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4982 ADX: 20.0 (weak) · Chop: 59.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 8.891% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/10/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4535
Score SMA
0.4855
Rank
#56 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5220
Rank Norm SMA
0.3360
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3074 r1h: -3.623% · r4h: -5.190% · r1d: -4.01% · r3d: -4.09% · ema21_slope: 0.0188% · dist_ema21: -3.255%
Force Relative 25% 0.2602 rs_1h: -2.264% · rs_4h: -3.510% · rs_1d: -2.84% · rs_3d: -4.42% · beta_24h: 2.282
Volume 20% 0.7315 rvol_20: 2.29× · zscore_50: 1.887 · trend: 39.75%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6868 ADX: 22.4 (weak) · Chop: 32.9 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.624% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4688
Score SMA
0.4286
Rank
#51 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2385
Rank Norm SMA
0.2776
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3517 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.492% · r1d: 0.55% · r3d: -0.24% · ema21_slope: -0.1660% · dist_ema21: -0.150%
Force Relative 25% 0.3900 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.173% · rs_1d: 0.01% · rs_3d: -1.75% · beta_24h: 1.890
Volume 20% 0.3839 rvol_20: 1.32× · zscore_50: 0.075 · trend: -14.60%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5935 ADX: 33.9 (trend) · Chop: 61.5 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.538% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.854% (0.0256)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.964% 0.3R -0.964% 0.3R 1.0× 12
2h +1.355% 0.4R -0.964% 0.3R 1.4× 24
4h +1.355% 0.4R -1.701% 0.4R 0.8× 48
8h +2.319% 0.6R -1.701% 0.4R 1.4× 96
12h ★ +2.319% 0.6R -3.026% 0.8R 0.8× 143
24h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 288
36h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 432
48h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 576
72h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 1324 min MAE in 829 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.91
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong grind compression bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 40% mid near -2.1ATR — 0.69 bull_high +4.55% -0.43 27/10 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 29% early — — 0.52 range_high -0.37% -0.11 28/10 16:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong balanced volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
49%
noisy_chop 43% late — — 0.69 bear_medium -0.95% -0.21 28/10 21:00
15m ↔ neutral range range strong fading compression bear_high_confirmed
57%
choppy 52% late — — 0.71 bear_low_confirmed -1.19% -0.33 28/10 21:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#444636
↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong grind 0.586 compression bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 40% mid 17b -1.0ATR near -2.1ATR — 0.45 50% ↓ -0.66 above_value +0.35 — #211848 0.69 bull_high +4.55% -0.43
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:20
4h
#444536
↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.513 normal bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 29% early 8b -0.1ATR — — 1.32 43% ↔ -0.03 above_value +0.35 — #211848 0.52 range_high -0.37% -0.11
28/10 16:00
upd 28/10 20:14
1h anchor
#445343
↔ neutral range range strong balanced 0.610 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
49%
noisy_chop 43% late 5b -1.8ATR — — 2.29 90% ↔ +0.09 below_value -2.40 inside #212181 0.69 bear_medium -0.95% -0.21
28/10 21:00
upd 28/10 22:11
15m
#445275
↔ neutral range range strong fading 0.314 compression bear_high_confirmed
57%
choppy 52% late 18b -5.2ATR — — 8.07 100% ↑ +0.41 above_value +0.01 — #212048 0.71 bear_low_confirmed -1.19% -0.33
28/10 21:45
upd 28/10 22:01
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 17b — 4.273×ATR p65 -1.016×ATR p56
4h ↑ up early 8b — 1.486×ATR p0 -0.065×ATR p2
1h ↓ down late 5b — 4.639×ATR p91 -1.753×ATR p80
15m ↓ down late 18b — 7.321×ATR p100 -5.212×ATR p100

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7953
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.43×ATR dur=41b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.68981308
  5. tp_price: 0.60016731
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.79525730337079
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-10-29T14:15:27.228144
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.79525730337079
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.0241
  14. obi_top10 : -0.1156
  15. micro_price : 0.66351317
  16. spread_pct : 0.030143
  17. mid_price : 0.6636
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.654
  19. bid_wall_size : 339450.214
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.667
  22. ask_wall_size : 263813.658
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0247
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0253
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7144
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.70195
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.6755
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.688725
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793095200
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793239200
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.4309
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    41
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7953
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793235600
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.6755
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8537
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.0385
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    5
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    5
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.01088077
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
41
inside_close_ratio
0.8537
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0385

Signaux confirmants (19)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 22:15 0.66420000 0%
2 22:26 0.66420000 0%
3 22:37 0.66360000 -0.09%
4 22:46 0.66360000 -0.09%
5 22:55 0.66360000 -0.09%
6 23:06 0.66460000 +0.06%
7 23:16 0.66460000 +0.06%
8 23:25 0.66460000 +0.06%
9 23:35 0.65880000 -0.813%
10 23:44 0.65880000 -0.813%
11 23:53 0.65880000 -0.813%
12 00:05 0.65880000 -0.813%
13 00:36 0.66110000 -0.467%
14 00:45 0.66110000 -0.467%
15 00:54 0.66110000 -0.467%
16 01:04 0.66110000 -0.467%
17 01:14 0.66730000 +0.467%
18 01:23 0.66730000 +0.467%
19 01:33 0.66730000 +0.467%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7144ms Confidence avant OB : 80% → 80%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.024
avg -0.025 ± 0.025
OBI Top 10 -0.116

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.6636
Micro Price
0.6635
Spread
0.0301%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.6540
Size
339,450.21

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.6670
Size
263,813.66

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.6642 0.6898 0.6002 2.5 0.449
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.6642
  • Stop Loss: 0.6898
  • Take Profit: 0.6002

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.6898 - 0.6642 = 0.0256

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.6642 - 0.6002 = 0.064

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.064 / 0.0256 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
207.4565 100 312.3404 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0256

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0256 = 312.5

Taille de position USD = 312.5 x 0.6642 = 207.56

Donc, tu peux acheter 312.5 avec un stoploss a 0.6898

Avec un position size USD de 207.56$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 312.5 x 0.0256 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 312.5 x 0.064 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 312.5
  • Taille de position USD 207.56
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
9.64 % 19.99 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.85 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-5.4 $ -2.60
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.0262 % 78.51 % 19
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.6642 0.6898 0.6002 2.5 0.449
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.6642
  • Stop Loss: 0.6898
  • Take Profit: 0.6002

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.6898 - 0.6642 = 0.0256

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.6642 - 0.6002 = 0.064

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.064 / 0.0256 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.854% (0.0256)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.964% 0.3R -0.964% 0.3R 1.0× 12
2h +1.355% 0.4R -0.964% 0.3R 1.4× 24
4h +1.355% 0.4R -1.701% 0.4R 0.8× 48
8h +2.319% 0.6R -1.701% 0.4R 1.4× 96
12h ★ +2.319% 0.6R -3.026% 0.8R 0.8× 143
24h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 288
36h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 432
48h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 576
72h +13.339% 3.5R -6.489% 1.7R 2.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 1324 min MAE in 829 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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