Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 578.67 ONDO at 0.404$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3699 (8.53 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4183 (3.44 %)
28 Oct 2026 at 22:18:38
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
28 Oct 2026 22:18
→ 10:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.4044$
Qty 578.6727 ONDO
Size 234.0326$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3699 (+8.53%)
TP $ 19.96$
SL 0.4183 (-3.44%)
SL $ 8.04$
RR 2.48
Status
loss
PnL
-3.39%
/ -7.94$
MAE -3.43%
MFE +0.57%
0.2R
expires
29 Oct 10:18
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231563)
#31 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 28/10/2026 22:00
score du 28/10/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4063
Quality Score
0.502
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#31 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#31 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.56×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.57×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.55×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
7.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/10 22:16
28/10 22:16
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 28/10 21:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7201
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.6%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→-0.039
Δ 1h
▼-0.097
Δ 4h
▼-0.694
Δ 12h
▼-0.065
Δ 24h
▼-0.761
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 29.2% |
| 1h | 10.4% |
| 4h | 4.2% |
| 24h | 12.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 20.8% | -0.25% |
| 4h | 12.5% | -3.76% |
| 24h | 16.7% | -3.46% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
75.0%
Expansion
75.0%
Tail ↑
+1.00
Tail ↓
+0.35
Dispersion :
0.239
Universe :
48
(-1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-1 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
28/10 22:16
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2906
Score SMA
0.2927
Rank
#57
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1385
Rank Norm SMA
0.2605
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2984 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.21% · r3d: 3.51% · ema21_slope: -0.5553% · dist_ema21: -4.239% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4132 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.33% · rs_3d: 2.00% · beta_24h: 2.156 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1766 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.542 · trend: -64.79% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4165 | ADX: 20.9 (weak) · Chop: 70.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.368% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.5015
Score SMA
0.5103
Rank
#31
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4063
Rank Norm SMA
0.4739
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3493 | r1h: -2.995% · r4h: -4.262% · r1d: -3.85% · r3d: 0.23% · ema21_slope: 0.0138% · dist_ema21: -2.913% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3437 | rs_1h: -1.636% · rs_4h: -2.582% · rs_1d: -2.68% · rs_3d: -0.10% · beta_24h: 1.678 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5708 | rvol_20: 1.67× · zscore_50: 1.188 · trend: 28.63% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6767 | ADX: 22.1 (weak) · Chop: 39.2 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.361% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5108
Score SMA
0.4649
Rank
#38
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5538
Rank Norm SMA
0.4351
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4598 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.853% · r1d: 0.21% · r3d: 3.51% · ema21_slope: 0.0543% · dist_ema21: 1.114% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4698 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.534% · rs_1d: -0.33% · rs_3d: 2.00% · beta_24h: 1.585 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4334 | rvol_20: 1.26× · zscore_50: 0.173 · trend: 24.93% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4585 | ADX: 15.8 (weak) · Chop: 59.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.142% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.437%
(0.0139)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -0.868% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -0.868% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -2.132% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -2.132% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.574% | 0.2R | -3.432% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1321 min
MAE in 826 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.7
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.78 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | near -0.6ATR | near -0.3ATR | 0.59 | range_high | -0.37% | +0.29 | 28/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.78 | bear_medium | -0.95% | -0.13 | 28/10 21:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
57%
|
choppy 50% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.76 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.24% | -0.26 | 28/10 22:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444702
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.657 | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 30b -0.7ATR | — | — | 0.58 | 53% | ↓ -0.72 | value | +1.04 | — | #211864 | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.78 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#444573
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.539 | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early 9b 0.6ATR | near -0.6ATR | near -0.3ATR | 1.26 | 30% | ↑ +0.26 | value | +1.04 | — | #211864 | 0.59 | range_high | -0.37% | +0.29 |
28/10 16:00
upd 28/10 20:16
|
|
1h
anchor #445358
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.599 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late 5b -1.8ATR | near -0.6ATR | — | 1.67 | 93% | ↑ +0.63 | above_value | -0.05 | — | #212196 | 0.78 | bear_medium | -0.95% | -0.13 |
28/10 21:00
upd 28/10 22:12
|
|
15m
#445426
|
↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | 0.304 | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
57%
|
choppy 50% | late 19b -5.1ATR | near -0.5ATR | — | 2.53 | 93% | ↑ +0.56 | above_value | -0.05 | — | #212196 | 0.76 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.24% | -0.26 |
28/10 22:00
upd 28/10 22:17
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 30b | — | 6.003×ATR | p78 | -0.671×ATR | p51 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 9b | — | 2.115×ATR | p3 | +0.558×ATR | p34 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 4.193×ATR | p88 | -1.842×ATR | p81 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 19b | — | 7.098×ATR | p100 | -5.06×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7623
- reason: down_bo width=1.95×ATR dur=25b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.41825474
- tp_price: 0.36986816
- atr:
- score: 0.76234894268948
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T14:18:30.296499
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.76234894268948
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0707
- obi_top10 : 0.1097
- micro_price : 0.4064125
- spread_pct : 0.024606
- mid_price : 0.40645
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.407
- ask_wall_size : 1047949.76
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0958
- obi_top5_std : 0.0445
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7022
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.42302
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.4124
- balance_zone_mid:
0.41771
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793152800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793239200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9496
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
25
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7623
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793235600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.4124
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.4631
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00544736 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
25
inside_close_ratio
0.8
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4631
Signaux confirmants (11)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:18 | 0.40443000 | +0.007% |
| 2 | 22:28 | 0.40443000 | +0.007% |
| 3 | 23:09 | 0.40664000 | +0.554% |
| 4 | 23:18 | 0.40664000 | +0.554% |
| 5 | 23:27 | 0.40664000 | +0.554% |
| 6 | 00:38 | 0.40664000 | +0.554% |
| 7 | 00:47 | 0.40664000 | +0.554% |
| 8 | 00:56 | 0.40664000 | +0.554% |
| 9 | 01:07 | 0.41005000 | +1.397% |
| 10 | 01:16 | 0.41005000 | +1.397% |
| 11 | 01:25 | 0.41005000 | +1.397% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7022ms
Confidence avant OB :
76%
→
76%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.071
avg 0.096
± 0.045
OBI Top 10
0.110
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.4065
Micro Price
0.4064
Spread
0.0246%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.4070
Size
1,047,949.76
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4044 | 0.4183 | 0.3699 | 2.48 | 0.3015 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4044
- Stop Loss: 0.4183
- Take Profit: 0.3699
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4183 - 0.4044 = 0.0139
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4044 - 0.3699 = 0.0345
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0345 / 0.0139 = 2.482
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 234.0326 | 100 | 578.6727 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0139
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0139 = 575.54
Taille de position USD = 575.54 x 0.4044 = 232.75
Donc, tu peux acheter 575.54 avec un stoploss a 0.4183
Avec un position size USD de 232.75$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 575.54 x 0.0139 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 575.54 x 0.0345 = 19.86
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.86$
Résumé
- Taille de position 575.54
- Taille de position USD 232.75
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.86
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.482
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 8.53 % | 19.96 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.44 % | 8.04 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.94 $ | -3.39 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4322 % | 99.85 % | 16 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4044 | 0.4183 | 0.3699 | 2.48 | 0.3015 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4044
- Stop Loss: 0.4183
- Take Profit: 0.3699
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4183 - 0.4044 = 0.0139
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4044 - 0.3699 = 0.0345
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0345 / 0.0139 = 2.482
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.437%
(0.0139)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -0.868% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -0.868% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -2.132% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.574% | 0.2R | -2.132% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.574% | 0.2R | -3.432% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +10.732% | 3.1R | -7.819% | 2.3R | 1.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1321 min
MAE in 826 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.