Short Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 206.81 TRUMP at 1.667$ per unit. Take profit: 1.5707 (5.8 %) & Stop Loss: 1.7061 (2.32 %)
28 Oct 2026 at 22:20:43
hyperliquid
TRUMP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
28 Oct 2026 22:20
→ 10:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 1.6674$
Qty 206.8103 TRUMP
Size 344.8355$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 1.5707 (+5.8%)
TP $ 20$
SL 1.7061 (-2.32%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.37%
/ -4.72$
MAE -2.13%
MFE +0.67%
0.3R
expires
29 Oct 10:20
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231574)
#19 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 28/10/2026 22:00
score du 28/10/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4779
Quality Score
0.518
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#19 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.32 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#19 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.32 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.89×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.22×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.92×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/10 22:17
28/10 22:17
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 28/10 21:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7201
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.6%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→-0.039
Δ 1h
▼-0.097
Δ 4h
▼-0.694
Δ 12h
▼-0.065
Δ 24h
▼-0.761
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 29.2% |
| 1h | 10.4% |
| 4h | 4.2% |
| 24h | 12.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 20.8% | -0.25% |
| 4h | 12.5% | -3.76% |
| 24h | 16.7% | -3.46% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
75.0%
Expansion
75.0%
Tail ↑
+1.00
Tail ↓
+0.35
Dispersion :
0.239
Universe :
48
(-1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-1 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
28/10 22:16
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3173
Score SMA
0.2769
Rank
#43
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3538
Rank Norm SMA
0.2208
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2907 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.39% · r3d: 4.74% · ema21_slope: -0.6223% · dist_ema21: -3.621% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4707 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.86% · rs_3d: 3.23% · beta_24h: 1.986 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2179 | rvol_20: 0.90× · zscore_50: -0.702 · trend: -61.55% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4586 | ADX: 24.1 (weak) · Chop: 68.1 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 6.612% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.5181
Score SMA
0.5233
Rank
#19
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4779
Rank Norm SMA
0.5421
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3745 | r1h: -2.443% · r4h: -3.692% · r1d: -2.88% · r3d: 2.48% · ema21_slope: 0.0368% · dist_ema21: -2.178% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4095 | rs_1h: -1.084% · rs_4h: -2.011% · rs_1d: -1.71% · rs_3d: 2.16% · beta_24h: 1.619 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6297 | rvol_20: 2.14× · zscore_50: 0.996 · trend: 25.43% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6805 | ADX: 21.7 (weak) · Chop: 37.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.042% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5124
Score SMA
0.4974
Rank
#37
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4385
Rank Norm SMA
0.6095
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4979 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.912% · r1d: 1.39% · r3d: 4.74% · ema21_slope: 0.0757% · dist_ema21: 1.407% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5060 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.593% · rs_1d: 0.86% · rs_3d: 3.23% · beta_24h: 1.417 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3487 | rvol_20: 1.02× · zscore_50: 0.026 · trend: -1.94% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4451 | ADX: 17.2 (weak) · Chop: 62.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.835% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.321%
(0.0387)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -0.816% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -0.870% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -2.129% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -2.129% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.666% | 0.3R | -2.129% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 143 |
| 24h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 288 |
| 36h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 432 |
| 48h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1319 min
MAE in 824 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.86
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.48 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.44 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | near 0.1ATR | 0.67 | range_high | -0.37% | +0.31 | 28/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
58%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.70 | bear_medium | -0.95% | -0.05 | 28/10 21:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
choppy 54% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.78 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.24% | -0.22 | 28/10 22:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444731
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.462 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 60b -0.6ATR | — | — | 0.90 | 26% | ↔ +0.05 | value | +2.70 | — | #211875 | 0.48 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.44 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:25
|
|
4h
#444618
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.647 | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid 17b 0.9ATR | — | near 0.1ATR | 1.02 | 53% | ↑ +0.32 | value | +2.70 | — | #211875 | 0.67 | range_high | -0.37% | +0.31 |
28/10 16:00
upd 28/10 20:19
|
|
1h
anchor #445369
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.669 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
58%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late 5b -2.0ATR | near -0.9ATR | — | 2.14 | 90% | ↑ +0.22 | above_value | +1.65 | — | #212207 | 0.70 | bear_medium | -0.95% | -0.05 |
28/10 21:00
upd 28/10 22:12
|
|
15m
#445437
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | 0.720 | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
choppy 54% | late 3b -5.2ATR | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.41 | 62% | ↑ +0.72 | above_value | +1.65 | — | #212207 | 0.78 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.24% | -0.22 |
28/10 22:00
upd 28/10 22:18
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 60b | — | 11.723×ATR | p92 | -0.613×ATR | p29 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 17b | — | 3.465×ATR | p51 | +0.867×ATR | p56 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 4.341×ATR | p78 | -1.972×ATR | p82 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 5.347×ATR | p95 | -5.158×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8385
- reason: down_bo width=3.00×ATR dur=59b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.70608279
- tp_price: 1.57069302
- atr:
- score: 0.83852
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T14:20:35.325879
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83852
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0288
- obi_top10 : 0.0298
- micro_price : 1.67235303
- spread_pct : 0.059809
- mid_price : 1.6725
- bid_wall_price : 1.66
- bid_wall_size : 549689.8
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 1.68
- ask_wall_size : 727733.78
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0417
- obi_top5_std : 0.0129
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6831
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.7303
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.6784
- balance_zone_mid:
1.70435
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793030400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793239200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9952
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
59
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8385
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793235600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.6784
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8475
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6348
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
16
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01732792 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
59
inside_close_ratio
0.8475
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6348
Signaux confirmants (12)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:20 | 1.66740000 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:30 | 1.66740000 | 0% |
| 3 | 23:39 | 1.67370000 | +0.378% |
| 4 | 23:48 | 1.67370000 | +0.378% |
| 5 | 23:57 | 1.67370000 | +0.378% |
| 6 | 03:11 | 1.67050000 | +0.186% |
| 7 | 03:20 | 1.67050000 | +0.186% |
| 8 | 03:30 | 1.67050000 | +0.186% |
| 9 | 03:40 | 1.66790000 | +0.03% |
| 10 | 03:49 | 1.66790000 | +0.03% |
| 11 | 03:59 | 1.66790000 | +0.03% |
| 12 | 04:12 | 1.66640000 | -0.06% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6831ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.029
avg 0.042
± 0.013
OBI Top 10
0.030
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.6725
Micro Price
1.6724
Spread
0.0598%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
1.6600
Size
549,689.80
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
1.6800
Size
727,733.78
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6674 | 1.7061 | 1.5707 | 2.5 | 0.9372 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.6674
- Stop Loss: 1.7061
- Take Profit: 1.5707
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.7061 - 1.6674 = 0.0387
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.6674 - 1.5707 = 0.0967
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0967 / 0.0387 = 2.4987
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 344.8355 | 100 | 206.8103 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0387
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0387 = 206.72
Taille de position USD = 206.72 x 1.6674 = 344.68
Donc, tu peux acheter 206.72 avec un stoploss a 1.7061
Avec un position size USD de 344.68$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 206.72 x 0.0387 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 206.72 x 0.0967 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 206.72
- Taille de position USD 344.68
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4987
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.8 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.32 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.72 $ | -1.37 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.1291 % | 91.73 % | 13 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6674 | 1.7061 | 1.5707 | 2.5 | 0.9372 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.6674
- Stop Loss: 1.7061
- Take Profit: 1.5707
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.7061 - 1.6674 = 0.0387
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.6674 - 1.5707 = 0.0967
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0967 / 0.0387 = 2.4987
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.321%
(0.0387)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -0.816% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -0.870% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -2.129% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.666% | 0.3R | -2.129% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.666% | 0.3R | -2.129% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 143 |
| 24h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 288 |
| 36h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 432 |
| 48h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.013% | 5.2R | -4.276% | 1.8R | 2.8× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1319 min
MAE in 824 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.