Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1259.85 ONDO at 0.412$ per unit. Take profit: 0.396 (3.86 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4182 (1.53 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 01:36:48
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 01:36
→ 10:10
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 0.4119$
Qty 1259.8544 ONDO
Size 518.934$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 0.396 (+3.86%)
TP $ 20.03$
SL 0.4182 (-1.53%)
SL $ 7.94$
RR 2.52
Status
loss
PnL
-1.53%
/ -7.94$
MAE -5.86%
MFE +1.93%
1.3R
expires
29 Oct 13:36
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231841)
#32 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 01:00
score du 29/10/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3940
Quality Score
0.484
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#32 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.53 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#32 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.53 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.19×ATR |
| 4h | near | -2.22×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.55×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
8.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 01:31
29/10 01:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/10 00:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7214
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
early_expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
41.3%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
bullish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▲+0.340
Δ 4h
▲+0.240
Δ 12h
▲+0.056
Δ 24h
▼-0.087
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 34.0% |
| 1h | 96.0% |
| 4h | 66.0% |
| 24h | 18.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 36.0% | -0.03% |
| 4h | 46.0% | +0.32% |
| 24h | 24.0% | -2.27% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
4.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
4.0%
Tail ↑
+0.32
Tail ↓
+0.40
Dispersion :
0.100
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 01:31
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2906
Score SMA
0.2927
Rank
#57
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1385
Rank Norm SMA
0.2605
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2984 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.21% · r3d: 3.51% · ema21_slope: -0.5553% · dist_ema21: -4.239% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4132 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.33% · rs_3d: 2.00% · beta_24h: 2.156 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1766 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.542 · trend: -64.79% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4165 | ADX: 20.9 (weak) · Chop: 70.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.368% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.4841
Score SMA
0.5101
Rank
#32
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3940
Rank Norm SMA
0.4737
Calculé le
29/10/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4007 | r1h: 0.713% · r4h: -2.513% · r1d: -2.52% · r3d: 0.26% · ema21_slope: -0.0411% · dist_ema21: -1.733% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4595 | rs_1h: 0.223% · rs_4h: -1.468% · rs_1d: -1.61% · rs_3d: 0.11% · beta_24h: 1.712 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2248 | rvol_20: 0.25× · zscore_50: -0.446 · trend: -9.09% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6936 | ADX: 23.2 (weak) · Chop: 36.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.333% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4638
Score SMA
0.4643
Rank
#38
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4473
Rank Norm SMA
0.4363
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3034 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.958% · r1d: -3.49% · r3d: 0.74% · ema21_slope: 0.0465% · dist_ema21: -2.632% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3981 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.137% · rs_1d: -1.93% · rs_3d: 0.40% · beta_24h: 1.833 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5114 | rvol_20: 1.56× · zscore_50: 0.634 · trend: 24.33% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4731 | ADX: 16.5 (weak) · Chop: 58.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.424% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.530%
(0.0063)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.158% | 0.8R | -0.124% | 0.1R | 9.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.925% | 1.3R | -0.124% | 0.1R | 15.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.925% | 1.3R | -0.124% | 0.1R | 15.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.925% | 1.3R | -1.287% | 0.8R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.925% | 1.3R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1123 min
MAE in 628 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 5.1
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.78 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 32% | mid | near -2.2ATR | — | 0.60 | bear_high | -2.15% | +0.01 | 28/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.79 | range_medium | -0.58% | -0.11 | 29/10 00:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | 0.75 | range_low | -0.43% | -0.13 | 29/10 01:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444702
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.657 | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 30b -0.7ATR | — | — | 0.58 | 53% | ↓ -0.72 | value | +1.04 | — | #211864 | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.78 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#446111
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.498 | expansion | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 32% | mid 1b -1.2ATR | near -2.2ATR | — | 1.56 | 35% | ↑ +0.28 | value | -1.94 | — | #212478 | 0.60 | bear_high | -2.15% | +0.01 |
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 00:15
|
|
1h
anchor #446513
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.576 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 8b -1.2ATR | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.25 | 35% | ↔ -0.10 | above_value | -1.42 | — | #212691 | 0.79 | range_medium | -0.58% | -0.11 |
29/10 00:00
upd 29/10 01:10
|
|
15m
#446659
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.364 | normal | bear_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late 11b 0.8ATR | — | — | 0.31 | 48% | ↓ -0.59 | above_value | -1.42 | — | #212691 | 0.75 | range_low | -0.43% | -0.13 |
29/10 01:15
upd 29/10 01:32
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 30b | — | 6.003×ATR | p78 | -0.671×ATR | p51 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 1b | — | 2.448×ATR | p17 | -1.184×ATR | p66 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 3.888×ATR | p80 | -1.185×ATR | p66 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 11b | — | 3.957×ATR | p81 | +0.784×ATR | p47 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7842
- reason: down_bo width=1.97×ATR dur=28b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.41824994
- tp_price: 0.39602515
- atr:
- score: 0.78423260989465
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T17:36:40.340838
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.78423260989465
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0356
- obi_top10 : -0.023
- micro_price : 0.41241364
- spread_pct : 0.024248
- mid_price : 0.41245
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.413
- ask_wall_size : 1195867.26
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0378
- obi_top5_std : 0.0012
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7044
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.42302
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.4124
- balance_zone_mid:
0.41771
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793152800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793250000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9669
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
28
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7842
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793235600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.4124
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7143
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
4
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.0926
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0053994 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
28
inside_close_ratio
0.7143
bars_since_breakout
4
distance_to_edge_atr
0.0926
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:36 | 0.41190000 | 0% |
| 2 | 01:45 | 0.41190000 | 0% |
| 3 | 01:55 | 0.41190000 | 0% |
| 4 | 02:07 | 0.41190000 | 0% |
| 5 | 02:19 | 0.41009000 | -0.439% |
| 6 | 02:29 | 0.41009000 | -0.439% |
| 7 | 02:39 | 0.40882000 | -0.748% |
| 8 | 02:48 | 0.40882000 | -0.748% |
| 9 | 02:58 | 0.40882000 | -0.748% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7044ms
Confidence avant OB :
78%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.036
avg 0.038
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
-0.023
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.4125
Micro Price
0.4124
Spread
0.0242%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.4130
Size
1,195,867.26
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4119 | 0.4182 | 0.396 | 2.52 | 0.3035 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4119
- Stop Loss: 0.4182
- Take Profit: 0.396
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4182 - 0.4119 = 0.0063
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4119 - 0.396 = 0.0159
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0159 / 0.0063 = 2.5238
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 518.934 | 100 | 1259.8544 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0063
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0063 = 1269.84
Taille de position USD = 1269.84 x 0.4119 = 523.05
Donc, tu peux acheter 1269.84 avec un stoploss a 0.4182
Avec un position size USD de 523.05$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1269.84 x 0.0063 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1269.84 x 0.0159 = 20.19
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.19$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1269.84
- Taille de position USD 523.05
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.19
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5238
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.86 % | 20.03 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.53 % | 7.94 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.94 $ | -1.53 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5344 % | 100.32 % | 12 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4119 | 0.4182 | 0.396 | 2.52 | 0.3035 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4119
- Stop Loss: 0.4182
- Take Profit: 0.396
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4182 - 0.4119 = 0.0063
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4119 - 0.396 = 0.0159
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0159 / 0.0063 = 2.5238
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.530%
(0.0063)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.158% | 0.8R | -0.124% | 0.1R | 9.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.925% | 1.3R | -0.124% | 0.1R | 15.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.925% | 1.3R | -0.124% | 0.1R | 15.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.925% | 1.3R | -1.287% | 0.8R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.925% | 1.3R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.357% | 8.1R | -5.856% | 3.8R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1123 min
MAE in 628 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.