Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 645.56 ONDO at 0.406$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3747 (7.64 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4181 (3.06 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 03:09:24
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 03:09
→ 10:10
· 7 hours
Position
Entry 0.4057$
Qty 645.5642 ONDO
Size 261.8796$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3747 (+7.64%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 0.4181 (-3.06%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-3.06%
/ -8$
MAE -7.47%
MFE +0.43%
0.1R
expires
29 Oct 15:09
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231981)
#22 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 03:00
score du 29/10/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4309
Quality Score
0.497
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#22 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.06 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#22 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.06 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.12×ATR |
| 4h | near | -2.22×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.55×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
8.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 03:01
29/10 03:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/10 01:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7220
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
43.3%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
bullish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.100
Δ 4h
▲+0.367
Δ 12h
→-0.006
Δ 24h
▼-0.063
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 54.0% |
| 1h | 14.0% |
| 4h | 62.0% |
| 24h | 10.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 48.0% | +0.02% |
| 4h | 56.0% | +0.24% |
| 24h | 20.0% | -2.59% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
0.0%
Tail ↑
+0.23
Tail ↓
+0.28
Dispersion :
0.090
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 03:01
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2906
Score SMA
0.2927
Rank
#57
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1385
Rank Norm SMA
0.2605
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2984 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.21% · r3d: 3.51% · ema21_slope: -0.5553% · dist_ema21: -4.239% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4132 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.33% · rs_3d: 2.00% · beta_24h: 2.156 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1766 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.542 · trend: -64.79% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4165 | ADX: 20.9 (weak) · Chop: 70.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.368% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.4967
Score SMA
0.5103
Rank
#22
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4309
Rank Norm SMA
0.4758
Calculé le
29/10/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3854 | r1h: -0.891% · r4h: 0.175% · r1d: -2.56% · r3d: 0.97% · ema21_slope: -0.0687% · dist_ema21: -1.905% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4715 | rs_1h: -0.560% · rs_4h: 0.165% · rs_1d: -1.46% · rs_3d: 1.16% · beta_24h: 1.728 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2042 | rvol_20: 0.36× · zscore_50: -0.324 · trend: -30.70% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6809 | ADX: 21.7 (weak) · Chop: 37.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.321% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4638
Score SMA
0.4643
Rank
#38
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4473
Rank Norm SMA
0.4363
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3034 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.958% · r1d: -3.49% · r3d: 0.74% · ema21_slope: 0.0465% · dist_ema21: -2.632% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3981 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.137% · rs_1d: -1.93% · rs_3d: 0.40% · beta_24h: 1.833 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5114 | rvol_20: 1.56× · zscore_50: 0.634 · trend: 24.33% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4731 | ADX: 16.5 (weak) · Chop: 58.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.424% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.056%
(0.0124)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -0.182% | 0.1R | 2.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -1.279% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -2.149% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -4.733% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.426% | 0.1R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1030 min
MAE in 535 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.36
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.78 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 32% | mid | near -2.2ATR | — | 0.60 | bear_high | -2.15% | +0.01 | 28/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.79 | range_medium | -0.60% | -0.11 | 29/10 01:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
62%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.76 | bear_low | -0.85% | +0.01 | 29/10 02:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444702
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.657 | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 30b -0.7ATR | — | — | 0.58 | 53% | ↓ -0.72 | value | +1.04 | — | #211864 | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.78 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#446111
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.498 | expansion | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 32% | mid 1b -1.2ATR | near -2.2ATR | — | 1.56 | 35% | ↑ +0.28 | value | -1.94 | — | #212478 | 0.60 | bear_high | -2.15% | +0.01 |
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 00:15
|
|
1h
anchor #446879
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | 0.424 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early 3b -0.8ATR | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.29 | 40% | ↓ -0.31 | value | -1.10 | — | #212833 | 0.79 | range_medium | -0.60% | -0.11 |
29/10 01:00
upd 29/10 02:11
|
|
15m
#447176
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.618 | compression | bear_medium |
62%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 6b -1.7ATR | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.88 | 70% | ↓ -0.63 | value | -1.10 | — | #212833 | 0.76 | bear_low | -0.85% | +0.01 |
29/10 02:45
upd 29/10 03:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 30b | — | 6.003×ATR | p78 | -0.671×ATR | p51 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 1b | — | 2.448×ATR | p17 | -1.184×ATR | p66 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.433×ATR | p0 | -0.814×ATR | p46 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 3.02×ATR | p59 | -1.7×ATR | p84 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.821
- reason: down_bo width=2.17×ATR dur=30b phase=extending
- stop_price: 0.41805226
- tp_price: 0.37467935
- atr:
- score: 0.82096293291418
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T19:09:16.561951
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82096293291418
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0511
- obi_top10 : 0.0627
- micro_price : 0.40598544
- spread_pct : 0.024637
- mid_price : 0.40595
- bid_wall_price : 0.405
- bid_wall_size : 1366209.12
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.407
- ask_wall_size : 1243919.26
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0307
- obi_top5_std : 0.0144
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6878
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.42302
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.412075
- balance_zone_mid:
0.4175475
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793152800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793257200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.1684
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
30
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.821
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793235600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.412075
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
6
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2709
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0050476 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
30
inside_close_ratio
0.6667
bars_since_breakout
6
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2709
Signaux confirmants (12)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:09 | 0.40566000 | -0.01% |
| 2 | 03:19 | 0.40566000 | -0.01% |
| 3 | 03:28 | 0.40566000 | -0.01% |
| 4 | 04:10 | 0.40592000 | +0.054% |
| 5 | 04:21 | 0.40592000 | +0.054% |
| 6 | 04:31 | 0.40592000 | +0.054% |
| 7 | 04:41 | 0.40698000 | +0.316% |
| 8 | 04:50 | 0.40698000 | +0.316% |
| 9 | 05:00 | 0.40698000 | +0.316% |
| 10 | 05:11 | 0.40874000 | +0.749% |
| 11 | 05:20 | 0.40874000 | +0.749% |
| 12 | 05:29 | 0.40874000 | +0.749% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6878ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.051
avg 0.031
± 0.014
OBI Top 10
0.063
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.4060
Micro Price
0.4060
Spread
0.0246%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.4050
Size
1,366,209.12
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.4070
Size
1,243,919.26
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4057 | 0.4181 | 0.3747 | 2.5 | 0.296 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4057
- Stop Loss: 0.4181
- Take Profit: 0.3747
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4181 - 0.4057 = 0.0124
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4057 - 0.3747 = 0.031
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.031 / 0.0124 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 261.8796 | 100 | 645.5642 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0124
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0124 = 645.16
Taille de position USD = 645.16 x 0.4057 = 261.74
Donc, tu peux acheter 645.16 avec un stoploss a 0.4181
Avec un position size USD de 261.74$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 645.16 x 0.0124 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 645.16 x 0.031 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 645.16
- Taille de position USD 261.74
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 7.64 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.06 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -3.06 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.086 % | 100.97 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4057 | 0.4181 | 0.3747 | 2.5 | 0.296 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4057
- Stop Loss: 0.4181
- Take Profit: 0.3747
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4181 - 0.4057 = 0.0124
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4057 - 0.3747 = 0.031
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.031 / 0.0124 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.056%
(0.0124)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -0.182% | 0.1R | 2.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -1.279% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -2.149% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.426% | 0.1R | -4.733% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.426% | 0.1R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.018% | 3.6R | -7.474% | 2.5R | 1.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1030 min
MAE in 535 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.