Short Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 192.61 TRUMP at 1.666$ per unit. Take profit: 1.5626 (6.23 %) & Stop Loss: 1.7079 (2.49 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 04:23:14
hyperliquid
TRUMP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 04:23
→ 10:35
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 1.6664$
Qty 192.6086 TRUMP
Size 320.963$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 1.5626 (+6.23%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 1.7079 (-2.49%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.49%
/ -7.99$
MAE -4.34%
MFE +2.23%
0.9R
expires
29 Oct 16:23
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 232064)
#35 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 04:00
score du 29/10/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4998
Quality Score
0.490
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#35 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.49 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#35 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.49 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.45×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.17×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.92×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 04:17
29/10 04:17
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/10 03:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7225
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
22.7%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
▼-0.067
Δ 1h
▼-0.273
Δ 4h
▲+0.153
Δ 12h
▼-0.652
Δ 24h
▼-0.378
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 52.0% |
| 1h | 70.0% |
| 4h | 20.0% |
| 24h | 2.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 54.0% | +0.02% |
| 4h | 44.0% | -0.52% |
| 24h | 16.0% | -3.46% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
0.0%
Tail ↑
+0.25
Tail ↓
+0.31
Dispersion :
0.097
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 04:16
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3173
Score SMA
0.2769
Rank
#43
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3538
Rank Norm SMA
0.2208
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2907 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.39% · r3d: 4.74% · ema21_slope: -0.6223% · dist_ema21: -3.621% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4707 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.86% · rs_3d: 3.23% · beta_24h: 1.986 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2179 | rvol_20: 0.90× · zscore_50: -0.702 · trend: -61.55% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4586 | ADX: 24.1 (weak) · Chop: 68.1 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 6.612% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4900
Score SMA
0.5202
Rank
#35
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4998
Rank Norm SMA
0.5353
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4475 | r1h: -0.323% · r4h: -0.685% · r1d: -2.66% · r3d: 1.53% · ema21_slope: -0.0583% · dist_ema21: -1.838% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4790 | rs_1h: -0.178% · rs_4h: -0.670% · rs_1d: -1.15% · rs_3d: 1.76% · beta_24h: 1.646 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1541 | rvol_20: 0.16× · zscore_50: -0.689 · trend: -64.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6914 | ADX: 23.0 (weak) · Chop: 33.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.048% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4432
Score SMA
0.4928
Rank
#37
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4461
Rank Norm SMA
0.5989
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4023 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.685% · r1d: -2.66% · r3d: 1.53% · ema21_slope: 0.0503% · dist_ema21: -1.843% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4646 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.670% · rs_1d: -1.15% · rs_3d: 1.76% · beta_24h: 1.465 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1621 | rvol_20: 0.21× · zscore_50: -0.995 · trend: -28.67% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4730 | ADX: 17.2 (weak) · Chop: 59.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.101% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.490%
(0.0415)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -1.056% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -1.056% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -1.944% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.226% | 0.9R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 288 |
| 36h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 432 |
| 48h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 956 min
MAE in 461 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.56
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.48 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.44 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.67 | bear_high | -2.12% | +0.14 | 29/10 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | near -1.5ATR | — | 0.70 | bear_medium | -1.03% | -0.13 | 29/10 03:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.79 | range_low | -0.70% | -0.02 | 29/10 04:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444731
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.462 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 60b -0.6ATR | — | — | 0.90 | 26% | ↔ +0.05 | value | +2.70 | — | #211875 | 0.48 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.44 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:25
|
|
4h
#447686
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.412 | normal | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid 2b -1.0ATR | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.21 | 5% | ↓ -0.21 | value | -0.78 | inside | #213130 | 0.67 | bear_high | -2.12% | +0.14 |
29/10 00:00
upd 29/10 04:17
|
|
1h
anchor #447684
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.521 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid 2b -1.6ATR | near -1.5ATR | — | 0.16 | 10% | ↓ -0.61 | value | -0.78 | — | #213130 | 0.70 | bear_medium | -1.03% | -0.13 |
29/10 03:00
upd 29/10 04:17
|
|
15m
#447770
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.374 | compression | bear_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 11b -1.1ATR | — | — | 2.34 | 66% | ↑ +0.19 | value | -0.78 | — | #213130 | 0.79 | range_low | -0.70% | -0.02 |
29/10 04:00
upd 29/10 04:21
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 60b | — | 11.723×ATR | p92 | -0.613×ATR | p29 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 2.446×ATR | p22 | -0.988×ATR | p63 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 2.026×ATR | p28 | -1.564×ATR | p69 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 11b | — | 4.038×ATR | p77 | -1.14×ATR | p61 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8386
- reason: down_bo width=2.89×ATR dur=58b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.70793501
- tp_price: 1.56256247
- atr:
- score: 0.83856248009101
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T20:23:06.885224
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83856248009101
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0181
- obi_top10 : -0.0135
- micro_price : 1.67247496
- spread_pct : 0.059809
- mid_price : 1.6725
- bid_wall_price : 1.66
- bid_wall_size : 638088.12
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 1.68
- ask_wall_size : 833585.56
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0194
- obi_top5_std : 0.0012
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7043
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.7303
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.68225
- balance_zone_mid:
1.706275
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793055600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793260800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.8946
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
58
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8386
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793253600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.68225
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7241
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.9548
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01660012 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
58
inside_close_ratio
0.7241
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9548
Signaux confirmants (14)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:23 | 1.66640000 | 0% |
| 2 | 04:33 | 1.66640000 | 0% |
| 3 | 04:43 | 1.66990000 | +0.21% |
| 4 | 04:52 | 1.66990000 | +0.21% |
| 5 | 05:02 | 1.66990000 | +0.21% |
| 6 | 05:12 | 1.67950000 | +0.786% |
| 7 | 05:21 | 1.67950000 | +0.786% |
| 8 | 05:31 | 1.67950000 | +0.786% |
| 9 | 05:41 | 1.67510000 | +0.522% |
| 10 | 05:50 | 1.67510000 | +0.522% |
| 11 | 05:59 | 1.67510000 | +0.522% |
| 12 | 06:41 | 1.68100000 | +0.876% |
| 13 | 06:50 | 1.68100000 | +0.876% |
| 14 | 06:59 | 1.68100000 | +0.876% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7043ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.018
avg 0.019
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
-0.014
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.6725
Micro Price
1.6725
Spread
0.0598%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
1.6600
Size
638,088.12
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
1.6800
Size
833,585.56
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6664 | 1.7079 | 1.5626 | 2.5 | 0.9149 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.6664
- Stop Loss: 1.7079
- Take Profit: 1.5626
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.7079 - 1.6664 = 0.0415
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.6664 - 1.5626 = 0.1038
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1038 / 0.0415 = 2.5012
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 320.963 | 100 | 192.6086 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0415
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0415 = 192.77
Taille de position USD = 192.77 x 1.6664 = 321.23
Donc, tu peux acheter 192.77 avec un stoploss a 1.7079
Avec un position size USD de 321.23$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 192.77 x 0.0415 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 192.77 x 0.1038 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position 192.77
- Taille de position USD 321.23
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5012
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.23 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.49 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.99 $ | -2.49 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5024 % | 100.48 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6664 | 1.7079 | 1.5626 | 2.5 | 0.9149 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.6664
- Stop Loss: 1.7079
- Take Profit: 1.5626
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.7079 - 1.6664 = 0.0415
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.6664 - 1.5626 = 0.1038
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1038 / 0.0415 = 2.5012
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.490%
(0.0415)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -1.056% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -1.056% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -1.944% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.246% | 0.1R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.226% | 0.9R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 288 |
| 36h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 432 |
| 48h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.960% | 4.8R | -4.339% | 1.7R | 2.8× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 956 min
MAE in 461 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.