Short Trade on APT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 196.94 APT at 0.637$ per unit. Take profit: 0.5355 (15.95 %) & Stop Loss: 0.6777 (6.37 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:40:50
hyperliquid
APT
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:40
→ 05:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.6371$
Qty 196.9434 APT
Size 125.4726$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.5355 (+15.95%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 0.6777 (-6.37%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+3.36%
/ +4.21$
MAE -0.00%
MFE +9.65%
1.5R
expires
30 Oct 05:40
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233229)
#63 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4740
Quality Score
0.468
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#63 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.37 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#63 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.37 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 0.70×ATR |
| 1d | near | -2.10×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:30
29/10 17:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7278
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.2%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.001
Δ 1h
→-0.021
Δ 4h
▼-0.783
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.841
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 91.7% |
| 1h | 61.7% |
| 4h | 5.0% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 90.0% | +0.38% |
| 4h | 8.3% | -6.55% |
| 24h | 13.3% | -8.33% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
1.7%
Down ≥1σ
88.3%
Expansion
90.0%
Tail ↑
+1.15
Tail ↓
+0.76
Dispersion :
0.261
Universe :
60
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:31
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2910
Score SMA
0.2957
Rank
#56
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1538
Rank Norm SMA
0.2693
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3299 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.55% · r3d: -0.24% · ema21_slope: -0.5510% · dist_ema21: -7.746% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3598 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.01% · rs_3d: -1.75% · beta_24h: 2.929 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1369 | rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -1.076 · trend: -43.54% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4982 | ADX: 20.0 (weak) · Chop: 59.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.891% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.4683
Score SMA
0.4892
Rank
#63
/ 73
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4740
Rank Norm SMA
0.3376
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1825 | r1h: -7.560% · r4h: -10.322% · r1d: -11.95% · r3d: -10.28% · ema21_slope: -0.0451% · dist_ema21: -7.838% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.0637 | rs_1h: -5.101% · rs_4h: -7.345% · rs_1d: -8.89% · rs_3d: -9.02% · beta_24h: 2.703 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 8.43× · zscore_50: 6.476 · trend: 275.39% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6509 | ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 16.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.542% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4121
Score SMA
0.4259
Rank
#59
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4196
Rank Norm SMA
0.2611
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2426 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.464% · r1d: -5.42% · r3d: -3.18% · ema21_slope: -0.1525% · dist_ema21: -2.715% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2730 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.332% · rs_1d: -4.48% · rs_3d: -4.23% · beta_24h: 2.533 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4176 | rvol_20: 1.33× · zscore_50: 0.172 · trend: 5.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6742 | ADX: 30.3 (trend) · Chop: 47.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.8641 | ATR%: 3.408% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.373%
(0.0406)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +3.469% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +3.469% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +9.653% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 143 |
| 24h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -2.213% | 0.4R | 4.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -3.045% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -3.045% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -3.045% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 159 min
MAE in 1504 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.6
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -2.1ATR | — | 0.69 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.43 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
44%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -0.86% | -0.41 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | 0.76 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.69 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
47%
|
choppy 50% | late | — | — | 0.86 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.62 | 29/10 17:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444636
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | grind | 0.586 | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 17b -1.0ATR | near -2.1ATR | — | 0.45 | 50% | ↓ -0.66 | above_value | +0.35 | — | #211848 | 0.69 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.43 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:20
|
|
4h
#452184
|
↓ down | range | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.405 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
44%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early 3b -0.8ATR | — | — | 1.33 | 46% | ↑ +0.17 | below_value | -2.06 | — | #214999 | 0.54 | bear_high | -0.86% | -0.41 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:14
|
|
1h
anchor #452621
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.589 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late 4b -3.4ATR | — | — | 8.43 | 100% | ↑ +0.57 | below_value | -4.72 | inside | #215221 | 0.76 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.69 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:09
|
|
15m
#452772
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.728 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
47%
|
choppy 50% | late 4b -2.6ATR | — | — | 0.55 | 86% | ↑ +0.78 | below_value | -4.72 | — | #215221 | 0.86 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.62 |
29/10 17:15
upd 29/10 17:31
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 17b | — | 4.273×ATR | p65 | -1.016×ATR | p56 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.013×ATR | p0 | -0.813×ATR | p45 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 5.452×ATR | p95 | -3.363×ATR | p100 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 3.397×ATR | p59 | -2.64×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.6849
- reason: down_bo width=2.97×ATR dur=38b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.67772081
- tp_price: 0.53554796
- atr:
- score: 0.78485611898533
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:40:42.570354
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.78485611898533
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1564
- obi_top10 : 0.2369
- micro_price : 0.63503505
- spread_pct : 0.031501
- mid_price : 0.635
- bid_wall_price : 0.625
- bid_wall_size : 269060.3514
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.647
- ask_wall_size : 206513.1578
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1624
- obi_top5_std : 0.0254
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6853
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.7002
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.652
- balance_zone_mid:
0.6761
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793174400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9738
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
38
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7849
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.652
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8158
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.9193
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
1
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.01620815 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
38
inside_close_ratio
0.8158
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9193
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:40 | 0.63710000 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:51 | 0.63710000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:02 | 0.63710000 | 0% |
| 4 | 18:35 | 0.62810000 | -1.413% |
| 5 | 18:44 | 0.62810000 | -1.413% |
| 6 | 18:54 | 0.62810000 | -1.413% |
| 7 | 19:05 | 0.62810000 | -1.413% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6853ms
Confidence avant OB :
78%
→
68%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.156
avg 0.162
± 0.025
OBI Top 10
0.237
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.6350
Micro Price
0.6350
Spread
0.0315%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.6250
Size
269,060.35
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.6470
Size
206,513.16
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6371 | 0.6777 | 0.5355 | 2.5 | 0.5717 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6371
- Stop Loss: 0.6777
- Take Profit: 0.5355
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6777 - 0.6371 = 0.0406
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6371 - 0.5355 = 0.1016
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1016 / 0.0406 = 2.5025
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125.4726 | 100 | 196.9434 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0406
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0406 = 197.04
Taille de position USD = 197.04 x 0.6371 = 125.53
Donc, tu peux acheter 197.04 avec un stoploss a 0.6777
Avec un position size USD de 125.53$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 197.04 x 0.0406 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 197.04 x 0.1016 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position 197.04
- Taille de position USD 125.53
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5025
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 15.95 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.37 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.21 $ | 3.36 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6371 | 0.6777 | 0.5355 | 2.5 | 0.5717 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6371
- Stop Loss: 0.6777
- Take Profit: 0.5355
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6777 - 0.6371 = 0.0406
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6371 - 0.5355 = 0.1016
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1016 / 0.0406 = 2.5025
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.373%
(0.0406)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +3.469% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +3.469% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +9.653% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 143 |
| 24h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -2.213% | 0.4R | 4.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -3.045% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -3.045% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.653% | 1.5R | -3.045% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 159 min
MAE in 1504 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.