Short Trade on XLM (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1750.82 XLM at 0.166$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1542 (6.88 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1702 (2.78 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:44:01
hyperliquid
XLM
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:44
→ 05:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1656$
Qty 1750.8191 XLM
Size 289.9531$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1542 (+6.88%)
TP $ 19.96$
SL 0.1702 (-2.78%)
SL $ 8.05$
RR 2.48
Status
win
PnL
+0.29%
/ +0.84$
MAE -1.51%
MFE +4.76%
1.7R
expires
30 Oct 05:43
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233109)
#39 / 74
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 16:00
score du 29/10/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3309
Quality Score
0.477
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#39 / 74
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#39 / 74
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.41×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.38×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:31
29/10 17:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7278
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.2%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.001
Δ 1h
→-0.021
Δ 4h
▼-0.783
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.841
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 91.7% |
| 1h | 61.7% |
| 4h | 5.0% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 90.0% | +0.38% |
| 4h | 8.3% | -6.55% |
| 24h | 13.3% | -8.33% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
1.7%
Down ≥1σ
88.3%
Expansion
90.0%
Tail ↑
+1.15
Tail ↓
+0.76
Dispersion :
0.261
Universe :
60
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:31
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3303
Score SMA
0.3242
Rank
#37
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4462
Rank Norm SMA
0.2766
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2530 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.11% · r3d: 2.61% · ema21_slope: -0.6654% · dist_ema21: -5.036% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4003 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.58% · rs_3d: 1.10% · beta_24h: 1.779 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2836 | rvol_20: 1.15× · zscore_50: -0.414 · trend: -44.72% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4321 | ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 72.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3276 | ATR%: 5.017% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4767
Score SMA
0.5336
Rank
#39
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3309
Rank Norm SMA
0.5752
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4399 | r1h: 0.089% · r4h: -1.766% · r1d: -1.98% · r3d: 1.05% · ema21_slope: 0.0224% · dist_ema21: -0.334% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4788 | rs_1h: 0.119% · rs_4h: -0.634% · rs_1d: -1.05% · rs_3d: 0.01% · beta_24h: 1.013 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1617 | rvol_20: 0.07× · zscore_50: -0.594 · trend: -49.01% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6181 | ADX: 18.9 (weak) · Chop: 43.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.936% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4538
Score SMA
0.5057
Rank
#45
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2902
Rank Norm SMA
0.5814
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4059 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.905% · r1d: -2.12% · r3d: 0.91% · ema21_slope: 0.0181% · dist_ema21: -0.521% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4505 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.747% · rs_1d: -1.16% · rs_3d: -0.10% · beta_24h: 1.261 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1946 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.589 · trend: -34.46% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5367 | ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 54.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.733% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.778%
(0.0046)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.763% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.769% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -1.510% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.759% | 1.7R | -1.510% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 155 min
MAE in 1095 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.94
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.77 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.73 | bear_high | -0.86% | -0.06 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.83 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.26 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid | — | — | 0.86 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.18 | 29/10 17:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444716
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.406 | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late 29b -1.3ATR | — | — | 1.15 | 62% | ↔ -0.10 | value | +2.04 | — | #211869 | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.77 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:24
|
|
4h
#452265
|
↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.765 | expansion | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 4b -0.4ATR | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.60 | 22% | ↔ -0.04 | above_value | +0.01 | — | #215028 | 0.73 | bear_high | -0.86% | -0.06 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:19
|
|
1h
anchor #452848
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.588 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late 4b -3.4ATR | — | — | 13.87 | 100% | ↑ +0.41 | above_value | +0.01 | inside | #215028 | 0.83 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.26 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:37
|
|
15m
#452805
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | grind | 0.457 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid 4b -1.9ATR | — | — | 1.80 | 97% | ↑ +0.95 | above_value | +0.01 | — | #215028 | 0.86 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.18 |
29/10 17:15
upd 29/10 17:32
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 29b | — | 7.513×ATR | p86 | -1.276×ATR | p69 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 0.807×ATR | p0 | -0.396×ATR | p20 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 5.4×ATR | p95 | -3.412×ATR | p100 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 2.197×ATR | p36 | -1.946×ATR | p77 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8205
- reason: down_bo width=2.48×ATR dur=44b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.17017929
- tp_price: 0.15418679
- atr:
- score: 0.82052390497747
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:43:53.577133
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82052390497747
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0745
- obi_top10 : 0.0229
- micro_price : 0.16487721
- spread_pct : 0.018196
- mid_price : 0.164885
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0809
- obi_top5_std : 0.0166
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6829
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.17279
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.16711
- balance_zone_mid:
0.16995
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793152800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4773
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
44
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8205
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.16711
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8636
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6542
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.00229286 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
44
inside_close_ratio
0.8636
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6542
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:44 | 0.16561000 | +0.006% |
| 2 | 17:54 | 0.16561000 | +0.006% |
| 3 | 18:07 | 0.16561000 | +0.006% |
| 4 | 18:38 | 0.16450000 | -0.664% |
| 5 | 18:48 | 0.16450000 | -0.664% |
| 6 | 18:57 | 0.16450000 | -0.664% |
| 7 | 23:43 | 0.16440000 | -0.725% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6829ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.075
avg -0.081
± 0.017
OBI Top 10
0.023
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1649
Micro Price
0.1649
Spread
0.0182%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1656 | 0.1702 | 0.1542 | 2.48 | 0.145 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1656
- Stop Loss: 0.1702
- Take Profit: 0.1542
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1702 - 0.1656 = 0.0046
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1656 - 0.1542 = 0.0114
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0114 / 0.0046 = 2.4783
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 289.9531 | 100 | 1750.8191 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0046
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0046 = 1739.13
Taille de position USD = 1739.13 x 0.1656 = 288
Donc, tu peux acheter 1739.13 avec un stoploss a 0.1702
Avec un position size USD de 288$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1739.13 x 0.0046 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1739.13 x 0.0114 = 19.83
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.83$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1739.13
- Taille de position USD 288
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.83
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4783
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.88 % | 19.96 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.78 % | 8.05 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.84 $ | 0.29 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5097 % | 54.35 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1656 | 0.1702 | 0.1542 | 2.48 | 0.145 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1656
- Stop Loss: 0.1702
- Take Profit: 0.1542
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1702 - 0.1656 = 0.0046
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1656 - 0.1542 = 0.0114
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0114 / 0.0046 = 2.4783
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.778%
(0.0046)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.763% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.769% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -1.510% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.759% | 1.7R | -1.510% | 0.5R | 3.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.759% | 1.7R | -4.100% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 155 min
MAE in 1095 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.