Short Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 18564.5 PENGU at 0.00729$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006217 (14.77 %) & Stop Loss: 0.007725 (5.91 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:44:25
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:44
→ 05:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.007294$
Qty 18564.5 PENGU
Size 135.4095$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006217 (+14.77%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.007725 (-5.91%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+2.58%
/ +3.49$
MAE -0.00%
MFE +9.23%
1.6R
expires
30 Oct 05:44
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233259)
#43 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5242
Quality Score
0.508
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#43 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#43 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.25×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.52×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.98×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:31
29/10 17:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7278
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.2%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.001
Δ 1h
→-0.021
Δ 4h
▼-0.783
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.841
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 91.7% |
| 1h | 61.7% |
| 4h | 5.0% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 90.0% | +0.38% |
| 4h | 8.3% | -6.55% |
| 24h | 13.3% | -8.33% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
1.7%
Down ≥1σ
88.3%
Expansion
90.0%
Tail ↑
+1.15
Tail ↓
+0.76
Dispersion :
0.261
Universe :
60
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:31
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3348
Score SMA
0.3002
Rank
#35
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4769
Rank Norm SMA
0.2497
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3750 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 2.70% · r3d: 6.24% · ema21_slope: -0.3484% · dist_ema21: 0.276% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5181 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.17% · rs_3d: 4.73% · beta_24h: 2.085 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1808 | rvol_20: 0.64× · zscore_50: -0.624 · trend: -67.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3773 | ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 72.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.144% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.5078
Score SMA
0.5432
Rank
#43
/ 73
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5242
Rank Norm SMA
0.6010
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2424 | r1h: -7.769% · r4h: -10.672% · r1d: -10.18% · r3d: -4.66% · ema21_slope: -0.0050% · dist_ema21: -7.858% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1327 | rs_1h: -5.310% · rs_4h: -7.695% · rs_1d: -7.12% · rs_3d: -3.40% · beta_24h: 2.880 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 10.43× · zscore_50: 5.460 · trend: 298.08% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6793 | ADX: 21.5 (weak) · Chop: 12.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.543% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5126
Score SMA
0.5243
Rank
#28
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7587
Rank Norm SMA
0.6830
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4573 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -5.030% · r1d: -2.04% · r3d: 3.03% · ema21_slope: 0.1666% · dist_ema21: 0.035% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4238 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.898% · rs_1d: -1.11% · rs_3d: 1.99% · beta_24h: 2.459 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4143 | rvol_20: 1.39× · zscore_50: 0.109 · trend: -0.99% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6090 | ADX: 19.1 (weak) · Chop: 44.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9522 | ATR%: 3.143% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.909%
(0.0004)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +3.085% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +3.455% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +9.227% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 144 |
| 24h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -2.578% | 0.4R | 3.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -3.565% | 0.6R | 2.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -3.565% | 0.6R | 2.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -3.565% | 0.6R | 2.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 155 min
MAE in 1560 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.62
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | 0.74 | bull_high | +4.55% | +0.07 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.63 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.19 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
43%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.78 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.66 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
47%
|
choppy 56% | late | — | — | 0.84 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.63 | 29/10 17:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444721
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.684 | compression | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid 35b 0.0ATR | — | — | 0.64 | 31% | ↓ -0.66 | above_value | +4.96 | — | #211871 | 0.74 | bull_high | +4.55% | +0.07 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:24
|
|
4h
#452271
|
↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.769 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 4b 0.0ATR | — | near 0.4ATR | 1.39 | 39% | ↑ +0.62 | value | +1.85 | — | #215030 | 0.63 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.19 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:19
|
|
1h
anchor #452650
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.618 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
43%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late 4b -3.3ATR | near 0.3ATR | — | 10.43 | 100% | ↑ +0.49 | below_value | -2.14 | inside | #215249 | 0.78 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.66 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:11
|
|
15m
#452808
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.253 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
47%
|
choppy 56% | late 2b -2.9ATR | — | — | 1.01 | 97% | ↑ +0.84 | below_value | -2.14 | — | #215249 | 0.84 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.63 |
29/10 17:15
upd 29/10 17:33
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 35b | — | 5.672×ATR | p67 | +0.045×ATR | p4 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 0.783×ATR | p0 | +0.011×ATR | p1 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 6.166×ATR | p96 | -3.271×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 2.499×ATR | p47 | -2.919×ATR | p93 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8385
- reason: down_bo width=1.56×ATR dur=45b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.00772493
- tp_price: 0.00621668
- atr:
- score: 0.83852870443944
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:44:17.339080
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83852870443944
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1405
- obi_top10 : -0.0381
- micro_price : 0.00721253
- spread_pct : 0.041603
- mid_price : 0.0072125
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.00724
- ask_wall_size : 20689126.2
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0883
- obi_top5_std : 0.0687
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7008
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.00785
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.007563
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0077065
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793149200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.5574
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
45
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8385
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.007563
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7333
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.4597
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
13
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.00018429 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
45
inside_close_ratio
0.7333
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4597
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:44 | 0.00729400 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:54 | 0.00729400 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:08 | 0.00729400 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7008ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.141
avg 0.088
± 0.069
OBI Top 10
-0.038
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0072
Micro Price
0.0072
Spread
0.0416%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0072
Size
20,689,126.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.007294 | 0.007725 | 0.006217 | 2.5 | 0.00617 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.007294
- Stop Loss: 0.007725
- Take Profit: 0.006217
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.007725 - 0.007294 = 0.000431
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.007294 - 0.006217 = 0.001077
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.001077 / 0.000431 = 2.4988
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135.4095 | 100 | 18564.5 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.000431
Taille de position = 8 / 0.000431 = 18561.48
Taille de position USD = 18561.48 x 0.007294 = 135.39
Donc, tu peux acheter 18561.48 avec un stoploss a 0.007725
Avec un position size USD de 135.39$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 18561.48 x 0.000431 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 18561.48 x 0.001077 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 18561.48
- Taille de position USD 135.39
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4988
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 14.77 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.91 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.49 $ | 2.58 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.007294 | 0.007725 | 0.006217 | 2.5 | 0.00617 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.007294
- Stop Loss: 0.007725
- Take Profit: 0.006217
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.007725 - 0.007294 = 0.000431
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.007294 - 0.006217 = 0.001077
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.001077 / 0.000431 = 2.4988
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.909%
(0.0004)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +3.085% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +3.455% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +9.227% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 144 |
| 24h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -2.578% | 0.4R | 3.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -3.565% | 0.6R | 2.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -3.565% | 0.6R | 2.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.227% | 1.6R | -3.565% | 0.6R | 2.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 155 min
MAE in 1560 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.