Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1762.3 XPL at 0.0718$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06041 (15.82 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0763 (6.33 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:45:26
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:45
→ 22:20
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.07176$
Qty 1762.3047 XPL
Size 126.4648$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06041 (+15.82%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.0763 (-6.33%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-6.33%
/ -8$
MAE -8.08%
MFE +2.31%
0.4R
expires
30 Oct 05:45
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233269)
#31 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4900
Quality Score
0.526
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#31 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.33 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#31 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.33 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 0.96×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.47×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
21.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:32
29/10 17:32
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7278
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.2%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.001
Δ 1h
→-0.021
Δ 4h
▼-0.783
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.841
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 91.7% |
| 1h | 61.7% |
| 4h | 5.0% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 90.0% | +0.38% |
| 4h | 8.3% | -6.55% |
| 24h | 13.3% | -8.33% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
1.7%
Down ≥1σ
88.3%
Expansion
90.0%
Tail ↑
+1.15
Tail ↓
+0.76
Dispersion :
0.261
Universe :
60
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:31
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3230
Score SMA
0.2416
Rank
#41
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3846
Rank Norm SMA
0.0847
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3145 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 4.24% · r3d: 4.27% · ema21_slope: -0.7713% · dist_ema21: -3.736% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4694 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.70% · rs_3d: 2.75% · beta_24h: 2.289 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2549 | rvol_20: 1.05× · zscore_50: -0.497 · trend: -54.74% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4023 | ADX: 16.0 (weak) · Chop: 66.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.437% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.5264
Score SMA
0.5306
Rank
#31
/ 73
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4900
Rank Norm SMA
0.5465
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2834 | r1h: -9.386% · r4h: -10.561% · r1d: -10.41% · r3d: -3.89% · ema21_slope: 0.0341% · dist_ema21: -8.384% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1362 | rs_1h: -6.927% · rs_4h: -7.583% · rs_1d: -7.35% · rs_3d: -2.63% · beta_24h: 3.007 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 10.07× · zscore_50: 6.683 · trend: 344.12% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7154 | ADX: 25.8 (trend) · Chop: 15.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.668% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5334
Score SMA
0.4808
Rank
#22
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6590
Rank Norm SMA
0.4913
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4690 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.763% · r1d: -1.74% · r3d: 5.33% · ema21_slope: 0.2226% · dist_ema21: 1.644% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5028 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.631% · rs_1d: -0.81% · rs_3d: 4.29% · beta_24h: 1.593 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4297 | rvol_20: 1.19× · zscore_50: 0.356 · trend: 22.26% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5702 | ADX: 18.8 (weak) · Chop: 48.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9557 | ATR%: 3.133% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.327%
(0.0045)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.732% | 0.3R | -2.513% | 0.4R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.732% | 0.3R | -3.324% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -3.828% | 0.6R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -8.077% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.306% | 0.4R | -8.077% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -13.951% | 2.2R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -14.880% | 2.4R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -15.877% | 2.5R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +3.248% | 0.5R | -20.445% | 3.2R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 154 min
MAE in 1624 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.68
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.54 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.67 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.58 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.41 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.77 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.58 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
choppy 51% | late | — | — | 0.75 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.60 | 29/10 17:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444743
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.400 | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late 33b -0.5ATR | near -0.5ATR | — | 1.05 | 55% | ↓ -0.25 | value | +2.45 | — | #211881 | 0.54 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.67 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#452305
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | explosive | 0.765 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early 4b 0.5ATR | — | — | 1.19 | 52% | ↑ +0.54 | value | +1.78 | — | #215041 | 0.58 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.41 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:21
|
|
1h
anchor #452661
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | explosive | 0.629 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 5b -3.5ATR | — | — | 10.07 | 100% | ↑ +0.16 | above_value | +0.07 | inside | #215260 | 0.77 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.58 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:11
|
|
15m
#452819
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | 0.707 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
choppy 51% | late 5b -2.8ATR | — | — | 2.09 | 99% | ↑ +0.93 | above_value | +0.07 | — | #215260 | 0.75 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.60 |
29/10 17:15
upd 29/10 17:33
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 7.542×ATR | p96 | -0.493×ATR | p30 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 1.282×ATR | p0 | +0.495×ATR | p30 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 5.278×ATR | p91 | -3.464×ATR | p100 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -2.763×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7519
- reason: down_bo width=1.92×ATR dur=31b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07630051
- tp_price: 0.06041222
- atr:
- score: 0.7518714076419
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:45:18.627302
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.7518714076419
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1903
- obi_top10 : 0.0764
- micro_price : 0.0706084
- spread_pct : 0.014164
- mid_price : 0.070605
- bid_wall_price : 0.0702
- bid_wall_size : 753608
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0719
- ask_wall_size : 829413
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0267
- obi_top5_std : 0.1038
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6934
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.078017
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.074185
- balance_zone_mid:
0.076101
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793199600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9207
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
31
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7519
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.074185
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8387
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.215
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.00199512 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
31
inside_close_ratio
0.8387
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.215
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:45 | 0.07176100 | +0.001% |
| 2 | 17:55 | 0.07176100 | +0.001% |
| 3 | 18:10 | 0.07176100 | +0.001% |
| 4 | 18:20 | 0.07187700 | +0.163% |
| 5 | 18:29 | 0.07187700 | +0.163% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6934ms
Confidence avant OB :
75%
→
75%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.190
avg 0.027
± 0.104
OBI Top 10
0.076
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0706
Micro Price
0.0706
Spread
0.0142%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0702
Size
753,608.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0719
Size
829,413.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07176 | 0.0763 | 0.06041 | 2.5 | 0.05233 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07176
- Stop Loss: 0.0763
- Take Profit: 0.06041
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0763 - 0.07176 = 0.00454
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07176 - 0.06041 = 0.01135
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01135 / 0.00454 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126.4648 | 100 | 1762.3047 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00454
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00454 = 1762.11
Taille de position USD = 1762.11 x 0.07176 = 126.45
Donc, tu peux acheter 1762.11 avec un stoploss a 0.0763
Avec un position size USD de 126.45$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1762.11 x 0.00454 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1762.11 x 0.01135 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1762.11
- Taille de position USD 126.45
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 15.82 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.33 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -6.33 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6918 % | 105.77 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07176 | 0.0763 | 0.06041 | 2.5 | 0.05233 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07176
- Stop Loss: 0.0763
- Take Profit: 0.06041
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0763 - 0.07176 = 0.00454
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07176 - 0.06041 = 0.01135
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01135 / 0.00454 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.06041
[entry_price] => 0.07176
[stop_loss] => 0.076754
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 02:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.06041
[entry_price] => 0.07176
[stop_loss] => 0.077208
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 03:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.327%
(0.0045)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.732% | 0.3R | -2.513% | 0.4R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.732% | 0.3R | -3.324% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -3.828% | 0.6R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -8.077% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.306% | 0.4R | -8.077% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -13.951% | 2.2R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -14.880% | 2.4R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.306% | 0.4R | -15.877% | 2.5R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +3.248% | 0.5R | -20.445% | 3.2R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 154 min
MAE in 1624 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
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