Short Trade on MON (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 8968.31 MON at 0.0199$ per unit. Take profit: 0.01764 (11.22 %) & Stop Loss: 0.02076 (4.48 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:46:15
hyperliquid
MON
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:46
→ 05:45
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.01987$
Qty 8968.3082 MON
Size 178.2003$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.01764 (+11.22%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.02076 (-4.48%)
SL $ 7.98$
RR 2.51
Status
win
PnL
+0.90%
/ +1.6$
MAE -2.24%
MFE +9.58%
2.1R
expires
30 Oct 05:46
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233273)
#66 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1171
Quality Score
0.462
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#66 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.48 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#66 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.48 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -1.09×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.46×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:32
29/10 17:32
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7278
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.2%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.001
Δ 1h
→-0.021
Δ 4h
▼-0.783
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.841
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 91.7% |
| 1h | 61.7% |
| 4h | 5.0% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 90.0% | +0.38% |
| 4h | 8.3% | -6.55% |
| 24h | 13.3% | -8.33% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
1.7%
Down ≥1σ
88.3%
Expansion
90.0%
Tail ↑
+1.15
Tail ↓
+0.76
Dispersion :
0.261
Universe :
60
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:31
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2366
Score SMA
0.2759
Rank
#64
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0308
Rank Norm SMA
0.1733
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2249 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.91% · r3d: -1.82% · ema21_slope: -0.9114% · dist_ema21: -7.761% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3512 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.44% · rs_3d: -3.34% · beta_24h: 2.335 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1343 | rvol_20: 0.23× · zscore_50: -0.985 · trend: -66.72% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3632 | ADX: 20.1 (weak) · Chop: 75.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.825% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.4621
Score SMA
0.5157
Rank
#66
/ 73
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1171
Rank Norm SMA
0.4947
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1679 | r1h: -5.834% · r4h: -9.529% · r1d: -11.61% · r3d: -10.98% · ema21_slope: -0.0868% · dist_ema21: -7.171% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.0621 | rs_1h: -3.375% · rs_4h: -6.552% · rs_1d: -8.55% · rs_3d: -9.72% · beta_24h: 2.200 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 6.71× · zscore_50: 6.133 · trend: 166.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6416 | ADX: 17.0 (weak) · Chop: 25.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.427% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3368
Score SMA
0.4677
Rank
#73
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0561
Rank Norm SMA
0.4741
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2510 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.631% · r1d: -7.37% · r3d: -5.87% · ema21_slope: -0.1341% · dist_ema21: -3.883% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2782 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.499% · rs_1d: -6.43% · rs_3d: -6.91% · beta_24h: 2.420 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2267 | rvol_20: 0.66× · zscore_50: -0.345 · trend: -31.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4768 | ADX: 14.6 (weak) · Chop: 56.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7505 | ATR%: 3.749% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.479%
(0.0009)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +3.709% | 0.8R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +4.590% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 153 min
MAE in 458 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 40
ML Pullback Score: 2.57
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.59 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.81 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.59 | bear_high | -0.86% | -0.60 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
53%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.72 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.64 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 50% | mid | — | — | 0.73 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.48 | 29/10 17:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444749
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.530 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late 26b -1.1ATR | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.32 | 19% | ↓ -0.61 | value | -0.59 | — | #211884 | 0.59 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.81 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#452317
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.572 | expansion | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid 5b -1.1ATR | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.66 | 18% | ↓ -0.32 | below_value | -2.99 | inside | #215045 | 0.59 | bear_high | -0.86% | -0.60 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:21
|
|
1h
anchor #452665
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.461 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
53%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 4b -3.1ATR | — | — | 6.71 | 100% | ↔ +0.12 | below_value | -4.19 | inside | #215264 | 0.72 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.64 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:12
|
|
15m
#452824
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | grind | 0.346 | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 50% | mid 2b -2.0ATR | — | — | 2.80 | 98% | ↑ +0.87 | below_value | -4.19 | — | #215264 | 0.73 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.48 |
29/10 17:15
upd 29/10 17:33
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 26b | — | 7.736×ATR | p96 | -1.051×ATR | p62 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 2.399×ATR | p18 | -1.084×ATR | p60 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 5.313×ATR | p95 | -3.076×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 2b | — | 2.244×ATR | p24 | -2.037×ATR | p73 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.731
- reason: down_bo width=2.31×ATR dur=30b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.02076203
- tp_price: 0.01763993
- atr:
- score: 0.73101070567539
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:46:07.086488
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.73101070567539
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1169
- obi_top10 : 0.1396
- micro_price : 0.01949756
- spread_pct : 0.154004
- mid_price : 0.019495
- bid_wall_price : 0.0194
- bid_wall_size : 3074811.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1231
- obi_top5_std : 0.008
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6903
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.021285
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.02014
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0207125
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793203200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3118
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
30
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.731
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.02014
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.5451
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00049529 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
30
inside_close_ratio
0.7
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5451
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:46 | 0.01987000 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:56 | 0.01987000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:10 | 0.01987000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6903ms
Confidence avant OB :
73%
→
73%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.117
avg 0.123
± 0.008
OBI Top 10
0.140
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0195
Micro Price
0.0195
Spread
0.1540%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0194
Size
3,074,811.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.01987 | 0.02076 | 0.01764 | 2.51 | 0.0163 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.01987
- Stop Loss: 0.02076
- Take Profit: 0.01764
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.02076 - 0.01987 = 0.00089
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.01987 - 0.01764 = 0.00223
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00223 / 0.00089 = 2.5056
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178.2003 | 100 | 8968.3082 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00089
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00089 = 8988.76
Taille de position USD = 8988.76 x 0.01987 = 178.61
Donc, tu peux acheter 8988.76 avec un stoploss a 0.02076
Avec un position size USD de 178.61$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 8988.76 x 0.00089 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 8988.76 x 0.00223 = 20.04
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.04$
Résumé
- Taille de position 8988.76
- Taille de position USD 178.61
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.04
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5056
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 11.22 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.48 % | 7.98 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 1.6 $ | 0.90 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2396 % | 50 % | 11 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.01987 | 0.02076 | 0.01764 | 2.51 | 0.0163 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.01987
- Stop Loss: 0.02076
- Take Profit: 0.01764
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.02076 - 0.01987 = 0.00089
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.01987 - 0.01764 = 0.00223
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00223 / 0.00089 = 2.5056
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
[2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.01809
[stop_loss] => 0.02076
[rr_ratio] => 2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 00:20:00+00
[result] => win
)
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.479%
(0.0009)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +3.709% | 0.8R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +4.590% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.577% | 2.1R | -2.240% | 0.5R | 4.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 153 min
MAE in 458 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.