29 Oct 2026 at 18:39:58 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 2475.17 XPL at 0.0731$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06499 (11.06 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07631 (4.43 %)

XPL SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Oct 2026 18:39 → 22:20 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 0.07307$

Qty 2475.1709 XPL

Size 180.8682$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.06499 (+11.06%)

TP $ 20$

SL 0.07631 (-4.43%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR 2.49

Status loss PnL -4.43% / -8.02$ MAE -6.14% MFE +4.06% 0.9R expires 30 Oct 06:39

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 233351)
#15 / 85
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 18:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5519

Quality Score
0.608
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#15 / 85
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#15 / 85
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.67×ATR
4h clear 0.96×ATR
1d near -0.47×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up late OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
27.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 18:32
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

27/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/10 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

29/10 17:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7282
Voir snapshot →
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range

0.25

compression

0

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical bear

0.55

transition

+1

Micro bear

0.90

transition

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.73
Transition risk : 0.27
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 6.2%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→-0.011
Δ 4h
▼-0.426
Δ 12h
▼-0.522
Δ 24h
▼-0.709

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 70.8%
1h 9.2%
4h 4.6%
24h 6.2%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 70.8% +0.21%
4h 7.7% -6.38%
24h 12.3% -7.87%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
3.1%
Down ≥1σ
90.8%
Expansion
93.9%
Tail ↑
+0.83
Tail ↓
+0.68
Dispersion : 0.330
Universe : 65 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.59
Snapshot évalué : 29/10 18:31 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3230
Score SMA
0.2416
Rank
#41 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3846
Rank Norm SMA
0.0847
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3145 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 4.24% · r3d: 4.27% · ema21_slope: -0.7713% · dist_ema21: -3.736%
Force Relative 25% 0.4694 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.70% · rs_3d: 2.75% · beta_24h: 2.289
Volume 20% 0.2549 rvol_20: 1.05× · zscore_50: -0.497 · trend: -54.74%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4023 ADX: 16.0 (weak) · Chop: 66.7 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 8.437% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.6084
Score SMA
0.5314
Rank
#15 / 85
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5519
Rank Norm SMA
0.5491
Calculé le
29/10/2026 18:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4001 r1h: 1.869% · r4h: -7.554% · r1d: -8.70% · r3d: -2.13% · ema21_slope: -0.0279% · dist_ema21: -6.102%
Force Relative 25% 0.3779 rs_1h: 1.628% · rs_4h: -5.276% · rs_1d: -5.85% · rs_3d: -0.82% · beta_24h: 3.048
Volume 20% 0.9230 rvol_20: 3.08× · zscore_50: 1.846 · trend: 286.72%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7286 ADX: 27.4 (trend) · Chop: 16.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.812% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5334
Score SMA
0.4808
Rank
#22 / 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6590
Rank Norm SMA
0.4913
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4690 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.763% · r1d: -1.74% · r3d: 5.33% · ema21_slope: 0.2226% · dist_ema21: 1.644%
Force Relative 25% 0.5028 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.631% · rs_1d: -0.81% · rs_3d: 4.29% · beta_24h: 1.593
Volume 20% 0.4297 rvol_20: 1.19× · zscore_50: 0.356 · trend: 22.26%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5702 ADX: 18.8 (weak) · Chop: 48.9 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.9557 ATR%: 3.133% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.434% (0.0032)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.081% 0.2R -1.471% 0.3R 0.7× 12
2h +4.058% 0.9R -1.779% 0.4R 2.3× 24
4h +4.058% 0.9R -5.508% 1.2R 0.7× 48
8h +4.058% 0.9R -6.139% 1.4R 0.7× 96
12h ★ +4.058% 0.9R -6.139% 1.4R 0.7× 144
24h +4.058% 0.9R -12.264% 2.8R 0.3× 288
36h +4.058% 0.9R -12.821% 2.9R 0.3× 432
48h +4.058% 0.9R -13.799% 3.1R 0.3× 576
72h +4.983% 1.1R -18.285% 4.1R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 100 min MAE in 1570 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.46
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 37% late near -0.5ATR — 0.54 bull_high +4.55% -0.67 27/10 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate explosive expansion_after_compression bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 38% early — — 0.58 bear_high -0.86% +0.41 29/10 12:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong balanced volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
47%
noisy_chop 39% late — — 0.77 bear_medium_confirmed -1.95% -0.38 29/10 17:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
48%
noisy_chop 45% early — — 0.73 bear_medium_confirmed -1.75% -0.37 29/10 18:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#444743
↓ down range range moderate grind 0.400 compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 37% late 33b -0.5ATR near -0.5ATR — 1.05 55% ↓ -0.25 value +2.45 — #211881 0.54 bull_high +4.55% -0.67
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
4h
#452305
↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate explosive 0.765 expansion_after_compression bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 38% early 4b 0.5ATR — — 1.19 52% ↑ +0.54 value +1.78 — #215041 0.58 bear_high -0.86% +0.41
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:21
1h anchor
#453094
↔ neutral range range strong balanced 0.625 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
47%
noisy_chop 39% late 1b -2.2ATR — — 3.08 99% ↑ +0.56 value -1.24 — #215427 0.77 bear_medium_confirmed -1.95% -0.38
29/10 17:00
upd 29/10 18:14
15m
#453266
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive 0.375 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
48%
noisy_chop 45% early 9b -0.9ATR — — 1.52 98% ↑ +0.95 value -1.24 — #215427 0.73 bear_medium_confirmed -1.75% -0.37
29/10 18:15
upd 29/10 18:33
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 33b — 7.542×ATR p96 -0.493×ATR p30
4h ↑ up early 4b — 1.282×ATR p0 +0.495×ATR p30
1h ↑ up late 1b — 1.735×ATR p17 -2.249×ATR p89
15m ↑ up early 9b — 0×ATR p0 -0.869×ATR p44

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7519
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.88×ATR dur=32b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.0763051
  5. tp_price: 0.06499274
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.7518714076419
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-10-30T10:39:50.069635
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.7518714076419
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.0272
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0238
  15. micro_price : 0.07289397
  16. spread_pct : 0.054877
  17. mid_price : 0.07291
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.072
  19. bid_wall_size : 800538
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.0735
  22. ask_wall_size : 843060.8
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.0422
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.1047
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7098
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.078017
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.074185
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.076101
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793199600
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793311200
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    1.8775
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    32
  43. balance_zone_quality: loose
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7519
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793304000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.074185
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8125
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    2
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.5448
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    10
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    4
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00204104
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
32
inside_close_ratio
0.8125
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5448

Signaux confirmants (15)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 18:39 0.07307300 +0.004%
2 18:49 0.07307300 +0.004%
3 18:58 0.07307300 +0.004%
4 19:10 0.07317600 +0.145%
5 19:18 0.07317600 +0.145%
6 19:27 0.07317600 +0.145%
7 19:37 0.07317600 +0.145%
8 19:45 0.07252100 -0.751%
9 19:54 0.07252100 -0.751%
10 20:05 0.07252100 -0.751%
11 20:18 0.07283000 -0.328%
12 20:28 0.07283000 -0.328%
13 20:39 0.07407700 +1.378%
14 20:49 0.07407700 +1.378%
15 20:58 0.07407700 +1.378%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7098ms Confidence avant OB : 75% → 75%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.027
avg 0.042 ± 0.105
OBI Top 10 0.024

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0729
Micro Price
0.0729
Spread
0.0549%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0720
Size
800,538.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0735
Size
843,060.80

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07307 0.07631 0.06499 2.49 0.05146
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07307
  • Stop Loss: 0.07631
  • Take Profit: 0.06499

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07631 - 0.07307 = 0.00324

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07307 - 0.06499 = 0.00808

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00808 / 0.00324 = 2.4938

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
180.8682 100 2475.1709 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00324

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00324 = 2469.14

Taille de position USD = 2469.14 x 0.07307 = 180.42

Donc, tu peux acheter 2469.14 avec un stoploss a 0.07631

Avec un position size USD de 180.42$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2469.14 x 0.00324 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2469.14 x 0.00808 = 19.95

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.95$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 2469.14
  • Taille de position USD 180.42
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.95
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4938

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
11.06 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
4.43 % 8.02 $
PNL PNL %
-8.02 $ -4.43
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-4.779 % 107.78 % 15
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07307 0.07631 0.06499 2.49 0.05146
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07307
  • Stop Loss: 0.07631
  • Take Profit: 0.06499

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07631 - 0.07307 = 0.00324

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07307 - 0.06499 = 0.00808

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00808 / 0.00324 = 2.4938

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.06499
            [entry_price] => 0.07307
            [stop_loss] => 0.076634
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 02:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.06499
            [entry_price] => 0.07307
            [stop_loss] => 0.076958
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 02:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.06499
            [entry_price] => 0.07307
            [stop_loss] => 0.077282
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 03:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.434% (0.0032)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.081% 0.2R -1.471% 0.3R 0.7× 12
2h +4.058% 0.9R -1.779% 0.4R 2.3× 24
4h +4.058% 0.9R -5.508% 1.2R 0.7× 48
8h +4.058% 0.9R -6.139% 1.4R 0.7× 96
12h ★ +4.058% 0.9R -6.139% 1.4R 0.7× 144
24h +4.058% 0.9R -12.264% 2.8R 0.3× 288
36h +4.058% 0.9R -12.821% 2.9R 0.3× 432
48h +4.058% 0.9R -13.799% 3.1R 0.3× 576
72h +4.983% 1.1R -18.285% 4.1R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 100 min MAE in 1570 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.