Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2122.01 XPL at 0.0711$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06931 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07486 (5.3 %)
01 Nov 2026 at 18:15:05
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
01 Nov 2026 18:15
→ 00:15
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.07109$
Qty 2122.0103 XPL
Size 150.8495$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06931 (+2.5%)
TP $ 3.78$
SL 0.07486 (-5.3%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.47
Status
win
PnL
+0.64%
/ +0.97$
MAE -1.18%
MFE +2.08%
0.4R
expires
02 Nov 00:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240122)
#49 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/11/2026 18:00
score du 01/11/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0560
Quality Score
0.370
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#49 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.30 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#49 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.30 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.92×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.51×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.23×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
balanced
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
deteriorating
OK
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bearish
OK
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.30
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
80.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/11 18:02
01/11 18:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 01/11 11:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/11 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7572
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
24.7%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.097
Δ 4h
▲+0.147
Δ 12h
▼-0.296
Δ 24h
▼-0.225
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 77.4% |
| 1h | 6.5% |
| 4h | 25.8% |
| 24h | 29.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 71.0% | +0.09% |
| 4h | 41.9% | -0.30% |
| 24h | 22.6% | -0.89% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
3.2%
Expansion
3.2%
Tail ↑
+0.37
Tail ↓
+0.32
Dispersion :
0.049
Universe :
31
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
01/11 18:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4346
Score SMA
0.3331
Rank
#16
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7321
Rank Norm SMA
0.3968
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4349 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.01% · r3d: 6.07% · ema21_slope: -0.5999% · dist_ema21: 2.419% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6444 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.24% · rs_3d: 10.72% · beta_24h: 2.010 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3947 | rvol_20: 1.32× · zscore_50: -0.211 · trend: 8.47% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4273 | ADX: 15.4 (weak) · Chop: 63.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.578% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.3697
Score SMA
0.5619
Rank
#49
/ 50
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0560
Rank Norm SMA
0.6557
Calculé le
01/11/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2369 | r1h: -0.208% · r4h: -0.980% · r1d: -12.67% · r3d: -2.64% · ema21_slope: -0.4081% · dist_ema21: -3.899% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3424 | rs_1h: -0.118% · rs_4h: -0.890% · rs_1d: -13.03% · rs_3d: -1.10% · beta_24h: 2.317 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1833 | rvol_20: 0.14× · zscore_50: -0.250 · trend: -63.64% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6146 | ADX: 39.6 (trend) · Chop: 64.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.291% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.4057
Score SMA
0.5416
Rank
#27
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5720
Rank Norm SMA
0.6775
Calculé le
01/11/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3946 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.987% · r1d: -12.81% · r3d: -6.81% · ema21_slope: 0.0983% · dist_ema21: -7.204% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3140 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.748% · rs_1d: -13.12% · rs_3d: -3.04% · beta_24h: 1.360 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4065 | rvol_20: 0.53× · zscore_50: 0.025 · trend: 108.79% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6714 | ADX: 20.6 (weak) · Chop: 36.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.2680 | ATR%: 5.196% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.303%
(0.0038)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.377% | 0.3R | -0.789% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.085% | 0.4R | -0.789% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.085% | 0.4R | -0.789% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.085% | 0.4R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.085% | 0.4R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.286% | 0.6R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.067% | 1.3R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 6.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +12.519% | 2.4R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 10.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +15.430% | 2.9R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 13.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1254 min
MAE in 284 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.97
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 33% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.54 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.06 | 30/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.19% | -0.40 | 01/11 11:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 50% | late | — | — | 0.51 | range_low | -0.73% | -0.91 | 01/11 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.09 | range_low | -0.05% | -0.25 | 01/11 17:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#475052
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.630 | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 33% | late 36b 0.3ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 1.32 | 77% | ↔ -0.10 | above_value | +3.70 | — | #224518 | 0.54 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.06 |
30/10 20:00
upd 31/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#480796
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.570 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late 3b -1.4ATR | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.53 | 81% | ↑ +0.36 | value | -1.25 | — | #226898 | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.19% | -0.40 |
01/11 11:00
upd 01/11 15:14
|
|
1h
anchor #481605
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.741 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 50% | late 9b -2.1ATR | — | — | 0.14 | 72% | ↓ -0.82 | value | -1.70 | — | #227253 | 0.51 | range_low | -0.73% | -0.91 |
01/11 17:00
upd 01/11 18:09
|
|
15m
#481554
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | 0.732 | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 5b -1.7ATR | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.54 | 50% | ↓ -0.55 | value | -1.41 | — | #227153 | 0.09 | range_low | -0.05% | -0.25 |
01/11 17:45
upd 01/11 18:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 36b | — | 6.327×ATR | p88 | +0.311×ATR | p19 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 3.973×ATR | p53 | -1.441×ATR | p80 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 9b | — | 2.65×ATR | p58 | -2.135×ATR | p88 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 1.412×ATR | p4 | -1.663×ATR | p81 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.07485801
- tp_price: 0.0693108
- atr: 0.00150801
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T05:15:05+00:00
Details
- rank: 51
- total: 52
- score: 0.213
- delta_2h: -0.0066
- extension_atr: -1.69
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0561
- confidence: 0.98
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:15 | 0.07108800 | -0.003% |
| 2 | 20:15 | 0.07061600 | -0.667% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07109 | 0.07486 | 0.06931 | 0.47 | 0.05763 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07109
- Stop Loss: 0.07486
- Take Profit: 0.06931
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07486 - 0.07109 = 0.00377
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07109 - 0.06931 = 0.00178
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00178 / 0.00377 = 0.4721
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150.8495 | 100 | 2122.0103 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00377
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00377 = 2122.02
Taille de position USD = 2122.02 x 0.07109 = 150.85
Donc, tu peux acheter 2122.02 avec un stoploss a 0.07486
Avec un position size USD de 150.85$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2122.02 x 0.00377 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2122.02 x 0.00178 = 3.78
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.78$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2122.02
- Taille de position USD 150.85
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 3.78
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4721
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 3.78 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.3 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.97 $ | 0.64 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1844 % | 22.33 % | 25 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07109 | 0.07486 | 0.06931 | 0.47 | 0.05763 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07109
- Stop Loss: 0.07486
- Take Profit: 0.06931
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07486 - 0.07109 = 0.00377
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07109 - 0.06931 = 0.00178
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00178 / 0.00377 = 0.4721
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.303%
(0.0038)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.377% | 0.3R | -0.789% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.085% | 0.4R | -0.789% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.085% | 0.4R | -0.789% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.085% | 0.4R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.085% | 0.4R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.286% | 0.6R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.067% | 1.3R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 6.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +12.519% | 2.4R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 10.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +15.430% | 2.9R | -1.184% | 0.2R | 13.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1254 min
MAE in 284 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.