Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2573.99 XPL at 0.0692$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06746 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0723 (4.49 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 05:15:07
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 05:15
→ 11:10
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.06919$
Qty 2573.986 XPL
Size 178.0941$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06746 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.45$
SL 0.0723 (-4.49%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 0.56
Status
loss
PnL
-0.28%
/ -0.5$
MAE -2.71%
MFE +0.53%
0.1R
expires
02 Nov 11:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240907)
#47 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 05:00
score du 02/11/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0597
Quality Score
0.394
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#47 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.49 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#47 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.49 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.27×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.29×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc_leading
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
stable
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bearish
OK
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-1.01
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
25.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 05:02
02/11 05:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 23:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/11 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7616
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
14.0%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.004
Δ 1h
→-0.031
Δ 4h
▼-0.369
Δ 12h
▼-0.204
Δ 24h
▼-0.165
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 44.7% |
| 1h | 10.5% |
| 4h | 7.9% |
| 24h | 13.2% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 50.0% | -0.00% |
| 4h | 23.7% | -1.01% |
| 24h | 13.2% | -3.37% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
15.8%
Expansion
15.8%
Tail ↑
+0.47
Tail ↓
+0.73
Dispersion :
0.153
Universe :
38
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 05:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4017
Score SMA
0.3571
Rank
#18
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6600
Rank Norm SMA
0.4829
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2395 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -12.60% · r3d: -2.00% · ema21_slope: -0.5980% · dist_ema21: -9.628% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2790 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -13.62% · rs_3d: -2.49% · beta_24h: 1.599 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9734 | rvol_20: 4.93× · zscore_50: 2.600 · trend: 100.15% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4360 | ADX: 16.3 (weak) · Chop: 62.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.819% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.3943
Score SMA
0.5559
Rank
#47
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0597
Rank Norm SMA
0.6330
Calculé le
02/11/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1947 | r1h: -1.016% · r4h: -2.465% · r1d: -8.11% · r3d: -8.72% · ema21_slope: -0.2927% · dist_ema21: -3.373% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2455 | rs_1h: -0.804% · rs_4h: -2.090% · rs_1d: -8.04% · rs_3d: -9.23% · beta_24h: 2.152 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5732 | rvol_20: 2.72× · zscore_50: 0.017 · trend: -37.52% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5915 | ADX: 43.2 (trend) · Chop: 71.3 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.902% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.3821
Score SMA
0.5404
Rank
#37
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2432
Rank Norm SMA
0.6700
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3276 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.659% · r1d: -5.74% · r3d: -7.50% · ema21_slope: -0.2012% · dist_ema21: -6.984% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3434 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.002% · rs_1d: -5.93% · rs_3d: -7.42% · beta_24h: 1.284 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2512 | rvol_20: 0.27× · zscore_50: -0.215 · trend: -0.81% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7108 | ADX: 25.3 (trend) · Chop: 37.2 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4109 | ATR%: 4.767% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.495%
(0.0031)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.379% | 0.1R | -1.720% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.379% | 0.1R | -2.178% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.379% | 0.1R | -2.696% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.526% | 0.1R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.271% | 0.5R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +4.515% | 1.0R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 1.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.117% | 2.3R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 3.7× | 288 |
| 48h | +13.107% | 2.9R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 4.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +13.107% | 2.9R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 4.8× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1044 min
MAE in 294 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.52
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.53 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late | — | — | 0.55 | bear_high | -2.68% | -0.33 | 01/11 23:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.49 | range_low | -0.38% | -0.62 | 02/11 04:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near -2.7ATR | — | 0.12 | range_low | -0.06% | -0.19 | 02/11 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#482046
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.391 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late 37b -1.1ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 4.93 | 99% | ↑ +0.22 | value | -1.57 | — | #227351 | 0.53 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:21
|
|
4h
#484280
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.516 | expansion | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late 6b -1.5ATR | — | — | 0.27 | 58% | ↑ +0.16 | below_value | -2.50 | inside | #228282 | 0.55 | bear_high | -2.68% | -0.33 |
01/11 23:00
upd 02/11 03:14
|
|
1h
anchor #484822
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.746 | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 5b -2.3ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 2.72 | 95% | ↓ -0.20 | below_value | -3.94 | inside | #228537 | 0.49 | range_low | -0.38% | -0.62 |
02/11 04:00
upd 02/11 05:11
|
|
15m
#484770
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.499 | compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 7b -2.0ATR | near -2.7ATR | — | 0.99 | 69% | ↑ +0.46 | below_value | -2.65 | — | #228435 | 0.12 | range_low | -0.06% | -0.19 |
02/11 04:45
upd 02/11 05:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 37b | — | 7.073×ATR | p92 | -1.1×ATR | p68 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 4.782×ATR | p63 | -1.547×ATR | p85 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 2.013×ATR | p39 | -2.33×ATR | p92 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 3.173×ATR | p57 | -2.018×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.07229802
- tp_price: 0.06746025
- atr: 0.00124321
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T16:15:07+00:00
Details
- rank: 51
- total: 53
- score: 0.173
- delta_2h: -0.0893
- extension_atr: -1.74
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0573
- confidence: 0.962
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06919 | 0.0723 | 0.06746 | 0.56 | 0.05257 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06919
- Stop Loss: 0.0723
- Take Profit: 0.06746
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0723 - 0.06919 = 0.00311
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06919 - 0.06746 = 0.00173
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00173 / 0.00311 = 0.5563
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178.0941 | 100 | 2573.986 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00311
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00311 = 2572.35
Taille de position USD = 2572.35 x 0.06919 = 177.98
Donc, tu peux acheter 2572.35 avec un stoploss a 0.0723
Avec un position size USD de 177.98$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2572.35 x 0.00311 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2572.35 x 0.00173 = 4.45
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.45$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2572.35
- Taille de position USD 177.98
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.45
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5563
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.45 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.49 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.5 $ | -0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.707 % | 60.22 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06919 | 0.0723 | 0.06746 | 0.56 | 0.05257 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06919
- Stop Loss: 0.0723
- Take Profit: 0.06746
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0723 - 0.06919 = 0.00311
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06919 - 0.06746 = 0.00173
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00173 / 0.00311 = 0.5563
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.495%
(0.0031)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.379% | 0.1R | -1.720% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.379% | 0.1R | -2.178% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.379% | 0.1R | -2.696% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.526% | 0.1R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.271% | 0.5R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +4.515% | 1.0R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 1.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.117% | 2.3R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 3.7× | 288 |
| 48h | +13.107% | 2.9R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 4.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +13.107% | 2.9R | -2.707% | 0.6R | 4.8× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1044 min
MAE in 294 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.