Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2627.31 XPL at 0.0701$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06837 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07316 (4.34 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 06:15:06
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 06:15
→ 12:10
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.07012$
Qty 2627.3096 XPL
Size 184.2269$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06837 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.6$
SL 0.07316 (-4.34%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 0.58
Status
win
PnL
+2.50%
/ +4.6$
MAE -1.34%
MFE +2.95%
0.7R
expires
02 Nov 12:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240960)
#51 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 06:00
score du 02/11/2026 06:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0644
Quality Score
0.375
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#51 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#51 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.07×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.29×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
balanced
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
recovering
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.21
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
25.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 06:02
02/11 06:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 23:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/11 05:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7620
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
29.9%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→-0.008
Δ 1h
▲+0.159
Δ 4h
▲+0.114
Δ 12h
▲+0.052
Δ 24h
▼-0.244
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 74.4% |
| 1h | 23.1% |
| 4h | 35.9% |
| 24h | 12.8% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 74.4% | +0.04% |
| 4h | 46.2% | -0.21% |
| 24h | 12.8% | -3.22% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
5.1%
Expansion
5.1%
Tail ↑
+0.25
Tail ↓
+0.69
Dispersion :
0.111
Universe :
39
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 06:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4017
Score SMA
0.3571
Rank
#18
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6600
Rank Norm SMA
0.4829
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2395 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -12.60% · r3d: -2.00% · ema21_slope: -0.5980% · dist_ema21: -9.628% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2790 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -13.62% · rs_3d: -2.49% · beta_24h: 1.599 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9734 | rvol_20: 4.93× · zscore_50: 2.600 · trend: 100.15% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4360 | ADX: 16.3 (weak) · Chop: 62.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.819% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 06:00
Score brut
0.3748
Score SMA
0.5554
Rank
#51
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0644
Rank Norm SMA
0.6312
Calculé le
02/11/2026 06:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2899 | r1h: 0.637% · r4h: -0.709% · r1d: -5.99% · r3d: -8.40% · ema21_slope: -0.2815% · dist_ema21: -2.513% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3764 | rs_1h: 0.758% · rs_4h: -0.465% · rs_1d: -5.92% · rs_3d: -8.58% · beta_24h: 1.922 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2191 | rvol_20: 0.70× · zscore_50: -0.264 · trend: -46.39% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6015 | ADX: 43.9 (trend) · Chop: 70.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.838% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.3821
Score SMA
0.5404
Rank
#37
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2432
Rank Norm SMA
0.6700
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3276 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.659% · r1d: -5.74% · r3d: -7.50% · ema21_slope: -0.2012% · dist_ema21: -6.984% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3434 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.002% · rs_1d: -5.93% · rs_3d: -7.42% · beta_24h: 1.284 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2512 | rvol_20: 0.27× · zscore_50: -0.215 · trend: -0.81% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7108 | ADX: 25.3 (trend) · Chop: 37.2 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4109 | ATR%: 4.767% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.335%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.479% | 0.1R | -0.823% | 0.2R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.479% | 0.1R | -0.933% | 0.2R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.479% | 0.1R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.946% | 0.7R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +4.913% | 1.1R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 3.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +5.782% | 1.3R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 4.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.309% | 2.6R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 8.4× | 288 |
| 48h | +14.260% | 3.3R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 10.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +14.260% | 3.3R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 10.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 984 min
MAE in 234 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.14
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.53 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late | — | — | 0.55 | bear_high | -2.68% | -0.33 | 01/11 23:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.49 | range_low | -0.49% | -0.53 | 02/11 05:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | near -2.3ATR | — | 0.12 | range_low | -0.17% | -0.17 | 02/11 05:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#482046
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.391 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late 37b -1.1ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 4.93 | 99% | ↑ +0.22 | value | -1.57 | — | #227351 | 0.53 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:21
|
|
4h
#484280
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.516 | expansion | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late 6b -1.5ATR | — | — | 0.27 | 58% | ↑ +0.16 | below_value | -2.50 | inside | #228282 | 0.55 | bear_high | -2.68% | -0.33 |
01/11 23:00
upd 02/11 03:14
|
|
1h
anchor #485096
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.748 | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 6b -1.7ATR | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.70 | 66% | ↔ -0.08 | below_value | -4.05 | — | #228642 | 0.49 | range_low | -0.49% | -0.53 |
02/11 05:00
upd 02/11 06:10
|
|
15m
#485042
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | 0.483 | compression | bear_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early 5b -0.9ATR | near -2.3ATR | — | 0.67 | 54% | ↔ +0.14 | below_value | -3.94 | — | #228537 | 0.12 | range_low | -0.17% | -0.17 |
02/11 05:45
upd 02/11 06:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 37b | — | 7.073×ATR | p92 | -1.1×ATR | p68 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 4.782×ATR | p63 | -1.547×ATR | p85 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 1.727×ATR | p24 | -1.73×ATR | p78 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 5b | — | 1.721×ATR | p7 | -0.896×ATR | p51 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.07316494
- tp_price: 0.068367
- atr: 0.00121798
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T17:15:06+00:00
Details
- rank: 52
- total: 53
- score: 0.2402
- delta_2h: -0.0015
- extension_atr: -0.95
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0622
- confidence: 0.981
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07012 | 0.07316 | 0.06837 | 0.58 | 0.05424 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07012
- Stop Loss: 0.07316
- Take Profit: 0.06837
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07316 - 0.07012 = 0.00304
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07012 - 0.06837 = 0.00175
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00175 / 0.00304 = 0.5757
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 184.2269 | 100 | 2627.3096 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00304
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00304 = 2631.58
Taille de position USD = 2631.58 x 0.07012 = 184.53
Donc, tu peux acheter 2631.58 avec un stoploss a 0.07316
Avec un position size USD de 184.53$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2631.58 x 0.00304 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2631.58 x 0.00175 = 4.61
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.61$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2631.58
- Taille de position USD 184.53
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.61
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5757
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.6 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.34 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.6 $ | 2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3448 % | 31.02 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07012 | 0.07316 | 0.06837 | 0.58 | 0.05424 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07012
- Stop Loss: 0.07316
- Take Profit: 0.06837
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07316 - 0.07012 = 0.00304
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07012 - 0.06837 = 0.00175
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00175 / 0.00304 = 0.5757
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.335%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.479% | 0.1R | -0.823% | 0.2R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.479% | 0.1R | -0.933% | 0.2R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.479% | 0.1R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.946% | 0.7R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +4.913% | 1.1R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 3.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +5.782% | 1.3R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 4.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.309% | 2.6R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 8.4× | 288 |
| 48h | +14.260% | 3.3R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 10.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +14.260% | 3.3R | -1.345% | 0.3R | 10.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 984 min
MAE in 234 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.