Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 557.29 XRP at 1.238$ per unit. Take profit: 1.2018 (2.9 %) & Stop Loss: 1.2521 (1.16 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 13:42:15
hyperliquid
XRP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 13:42
→ 15:00
· 1 hour
Position
Entry 1.2377$
Qty 557.2921 XRP
Size 689.7604$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 1.2018 (+2.9%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 1.2521 (-1.16%)
SL $ 8.03$
RR 2.49
Status
loss
PnL
-1.16%
/ -8.03$
MAE -1.64%
MFE +0.06%
0.1R
expires
03 Nov 01:42
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241463)
#9 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 13:00
score du 02/11/2026 13:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5956
Quality Score
0.606
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#9 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.16 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#9 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.16 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.02×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.73×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.60×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
46.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 13:30
02/11 13:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) 02/11 12:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7650
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
13.2%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.004
Δ 1h
▼-0.083
Δ 4h
▼-0.387
Δ 12h
▼-0.238
Δ 24h
→+0.010
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 33.3% |
| 1h | 81.3% |
| 4h | 4.2% |
| 24h | 14.6% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 39.6% | -0.07% |
| 4h | 27.1% | -1.46% |
| 24h | 18.8% | -2.95% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
27.1%
Expansion
27.1%
Tail ↑
+0.64
Tail ↓
+0.45
Dispersion :
0.194
Universe :
48
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 13:31
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3482
Score SMA
0.3729
Rank
#28
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4600
Rank Norm SMA
0.5943
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2550 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.06% · r3d: 1.05% · ema21_slope: -0.4003% · dist_ema21: -4.824% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4476 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.08% · rs_3d: 0.56% · beta_24h: 1.421 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1261 | rvol_20: 0.26× · zscore_50: -1.253 · trend: -42.73% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5327 | ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 54.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.5471 | ATR%: 4.359% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 13:00
Score brut
0.6057
Score SMA
0.5146
Rank
#9
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5956
Rank Norm SMA
0.5105
Calculé le
02/11/2026 13:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4465 | r1h: -0.688% · r4h: -1.052% · r1d: -0.70% · r3d: -0.30% · ema21_slope: -0.0120% · dist_ema21: -0.720% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4913 | rs_1h: -0.248% · rs_4h: -0.022% · rs_1d: 0.35% · rs_3d: -0.28% · beta_24h: 1.127 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8479 | rvol_20: 2.46× · zscore_50: 2.090 · trend: 96.59% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5288 | ADX: 12.9 (weak) · Chop: 47.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.688% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.5293
Score SMA
0.5028
Rank
#24
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5367
Rank Norm SMA
0.5997
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4308 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.120% · r1d: -0.06% · r3d: -0.45% · ema21_slope: -0.0814% · dist_ema21: -0.656% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5104 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.351% · rs_1d: 0.53% · rs_3d: -0.35% · beta_24h: 0.977 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6818 | rvol_20: 3.28× · zscore_50: 0.448 · trend: -11.02% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2407 | ADX: 19.3 (weak) · Chop: 90.1 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.274% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.163%
(0.0144)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -0.768% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.390% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.390% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.398% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.640% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -4.339% | 3.7R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -4.339% | 3.7R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -8.443% | 7.3R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.768% | 0.7R | -8.443% | 7.3R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 2 min
MAE in 1127 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.07
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.88 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.26 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early | — | — | 0.78 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.07 | 02/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 29% | mid | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.84 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.42% | +0.02 | 02/11 12:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | — | 0.79 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.19% | +0.02 | 02/11 13:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#481967
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.545 | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late 39b -1.3ATR | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.26 | 10% | ↓ -0.32 | above_value | -13.23 | — | #227326 | 0.88 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.26 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:17
|
|
4h
#486599
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.390 | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early 21b -0.7ATR | — | — | 3.28 | 82% | ↔ -0.02 | above_value | -0.45 | — | #229225 | 0.78 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.07 |
02/11 07:00
upd 02/11 11:13
|
|
1h
anchor #487307
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.535 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 29% | mid 3b -1.0ATR | near -1.0ATR | — | 2.46 | 92% | ↑ +0.19 | value | -1.15 | — | #229543 | 0.84 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.42% | +0.02 |
02/11 12:00
upd 02/11 13:10
|
|
15m
#487446
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.395 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late 2b -1.6ATR | — | — | 0.21 | 69% | ↔ +0.05 | value | -1.15 | — | #229543 | 0.79 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.19% | +0.02 |
02/11 13:15
upd 02/11 13:31
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 39b | — | 7.539×ATR | p83 | -1.277×ATR | p71 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 21b | — | 3.068×ATR | p31 | -0.74×ATR | p51 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.049×ATR | p38 | -1.043×ATR | p64 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 0.599×ATR | p3 | -1.639×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7889
- reason: down_bo width=1.78×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.25205513
- tp_price: 1.20181216
- atr:
- score: 0.78891407322928
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T06:42:07.341591
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.78891407322928
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1191
- obi_top10 : 0.1191
- micro_price : 1.23833094
- spread_pct : 0.008076
- mid_price : 1.23835
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.125
- obi_top5_std : 0.0097
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6807
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.2588
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.2436
- balance_zone_mid:
1.2512
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793527200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793642400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.7775
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
33
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7889
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793638800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.2436
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9091
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.69
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00855134 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.9091
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.69
Signaux confirmants (4)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:42 | 1.23770000 | 0% |
| 2 | 14:00 | 1.23770000 | 0% |
| 3 | 14:16 | 1.24120000 | +0.283% |
| 4 | 14:31 | 1.24120000 | +0.283% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6807ms
Confidence avant OB :
79%
→
79%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.119
avg 0.125
± 0.010
OBI Top 10
0.119
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.2384
Micro Price
1.2383
Spread
0.0081%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2377 | 1.2521 | 1.2018 | 2.49 | 0.997 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.2377
- Stop Loss: 1.2521
- Take Profit: 1.2018
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.2521 - 1.2377 = 0.0144
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.2377 - 1.2018 = 0.0359
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0359 / 0.0144 = 2.4931
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 689.7604 | 100 | 557.2921 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0144
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0144 = 555.56
Taille de position USD = 555.56 x 1.2377 = 687.62
Donc, tu peux acheter 555.56 avec un stoploss a 1.2521
Avec un position size USD de 687.62$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 555.56 x 0.0144 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 555.56 x 0.0359 = 19.94
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.94$
Résumé
- Taille de position 555.56
- Taille de position USD 687.62
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.94
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4931
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.9 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.16 % | 8.03 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.03 $ | -1.16 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2442 % | 106.95 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2377 | 1.2521 | 1.2018 | 2.49 | 0.997 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.2377
- Stop Loss: 1.2521
- Take Profit: 1.2018
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.2521 - 1.2377 = 0.0144
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.2377 - 1.2018 = 0.0359
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0359 / 0.0144 = 2.4931
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 1.2018
[entry_price] => 1.2377
[stop_loss] => 1.25354
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-11-02 20:20:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.163%
(0.0144)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -0.768% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.390% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.390% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.398% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.057% | 0.1R | -1.640% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -4.339% | 3.7R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -4.339% | 3.7R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.057% | 0.1R | -8.443% | 7.3R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.768% | 0.7R | -8.443% | 7.3R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 2 min
MAE in 1127 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.