Short Trade on ETH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.36 ETH at 2250$ per unit. Take profit: 2193.9718 (2.49 %) & Stop Loss: 2272.4113 (1 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 14:14:00
hyperliquid
ETH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 14:14
→ 02:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 2250$
Qty 0.357 ETH
Size 803.1669$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 2193.9718 (+2.49%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2272.4113 (-1%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.16%
/ +1.32$
MAE -0.62%
MFE +0.62%
0.6R
expires
03 Nov 02:13
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241512)
#1 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 14:00
score du 02/11/2026 14:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.9116
Quality Score
0.624
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#1 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.00 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#1 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.00 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.35×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.32×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 7.41×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
913.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 14:00
02/11 14:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) 02/11 13:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7652
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
10.4%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→-0.007
Δ 4h
▼-0.548
Δ 12h
▼-0.081
Δ 24h
→+0.004
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 77.1% |
| 1h | 18.8% |
| 4h | 2.1% |
| 24h | 10.4% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 81.3% | +0.07% |
| 4h | 20.8% | -2.05% |
| 24h | 18.8% | -3.53% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
54.2%
Expansion
54.2%
Tail ↑
+0.64
Tail ↓
+0.51
Dispersion :
0.190
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 14:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4087
Score SMA
0.4165
Rank
#16
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7000
Rank Norm SMA
0.6991
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2782 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.88% · r3d: 1.01% · ema21_slope: -0.4617% · dist_ema21: -4.190% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4708 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.14% · rs_3d: 0.52% · beta_24h: 1.164 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1424 | rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -1.434 · trend: -21.49% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6729 | ADX: 31.4 (trend) · Chop: 49.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7816 | ATR%: 3.655% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 14:00
Score brut
0.6235
Score SMA
0.5237
Rank
#1
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.9116
Rank Norm SMA
0.5647
Calculé le
02/11/2026 14:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4614 | r1h: -0.257% · r4h: -1.633% · r1d: -0.43% · r3d: 1.00% · ema21_slope: -0.0028% · dist_ema21: -1.038% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4978 | rs_1h: -0.083% · rs_4h: -0.545% · rs_1d: 0.68% · rs_3d: 0.50% · beta_24h: 1.379 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8101 | rvol_20: 2.15× · zscore_50: 2.189 · trend: 125.47% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6576 | ADX: 22.3 (weak) · Chop: 41.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.708% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.5850
Score SMA
0.5090
Rank
#6
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8671
Rank Norm SMA
0.6573
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4512 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.565% · r1d: 0.30% · r3d: 2.09% · ema21_slope: -0.0035% · dist_ema21: -0.126% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5355 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.093% · rs_1d: 0.89% · rs_3d: 2.20% · beta_24h: 0.905 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7080 | rvol_20: 3.20× · zscore_50: 0.640 · trend: -0.97% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4945 | ADX: 22.9 (weak) · Chop: 62.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.248% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.996%
(22.4113)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.467% | 0.5R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.502% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.502% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.622% | 0.6R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.622% | 0.6R | 1.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -2.640% | 2.7R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.080% | 1.1R | -2.640% | 2.7R | 0.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.080% | 1.1R | -8.889% | 8.9R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.080% | 1.1R | -8.889% | 8.9R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1911 min
MAE in 1096 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.63
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | 0.92 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.28 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | — | 0.88 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.24 | 02/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
47%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.89 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.56% | +0.07 | 02/11 13:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.90 | bear_low | -1.08% | -0.03 | 02/11 13:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#481928
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.439 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid 41b -1.3ATR | — | — | 0.33 | 9% | ↓ -0.34 | value | -4.30 | — | #227315 | 0.92 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.28 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:15
|
|
4h
#486571
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.381 | compression | bear_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid 21b -0.1ATR | — | — | 3.20 | 90% | ↓ -0.17 | value | +1.90 | inside | #229211 | 0.88 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.24 |
02/11 07:00
upd 02/11 11:12
|
|
1h
anchor #487631
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.414 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
47%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 3b -1.4ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 2.15 | 91% | ↑ +0.48 | above_value | -0.87 | — | #229657 | 0.89 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.56% | +0.07 |
02/11 13:00
upd 02/11 14:08
|
|
15m
#487566
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.366 | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid 3b -1.3ATR | — | — | 0.31 | 76% | ↑ +0.21 | value | +0.87 | — | #229529 | 0.90 | bear_low | -1.08% | -0.03 |
02/11 13:45
upd 02/11 14:00
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 41b | — | 6.434×ATR | p70 | -1.264×ATR | p62 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 21b | — | 3.506×ATR | p52 | -0.134×ATR | p11 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 2.937×ATR | p62 | -1.422×ATR | p81 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 1.378×ATR | p0 | -1.258×ATR | p70 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7749
- reason: down_bo width=2.29×ATR dur=36b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 2272.41128243
- tp_price: 2193.97179393
- atr:
- score: 0.77491826712581
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T07:13:52.944782
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.77491826712581
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0324
- obi_top10 : -0.0324
- micro_price : 2249.2737198
- spread_pct : 0.000445
- mid_price : 2249.275
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0103
- obi_top5_std : 0.1283
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7003
- aggregation_tick : 10
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2288.2
- balance_zone_bottom:
2253.6
- balance_zone_mid:
2270.9
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793520000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793646000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2894
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
36
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7749
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793642400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2253.6
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7222
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2382
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 15.11282427 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
36
inside_close_ratio
0.7222
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2382
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:14 | 2250.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 14:28 | 2250.00000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 14:43 | 2247.70000000 | -0.102% |
| 4 | 14:44 | 2247.70000000 | -0.102% |
| 5 | 14:53 | 2247.70000000 | -0.102% |
| 6 | 15:04 | 2247.70000000 | -0.102% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7003ms
Confidence avant OB :
77%
→
77%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.032
avg -0.010
± 0.128
OBI Top 10
-0.032
Microstructure
Mid Price
2,249.2750
Micro Price
2,249.2737
Spread
0.0004%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2250 | 2272.4113 | 2193.9718 | 2.5 | 1903.4 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2250
- Stop Loss: 2272.4113
- Take Profit: 2193.9718
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2272.4113 - 2250 = 22.4113
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2250 - 2193.9718 = 56.0282
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 56.0282 / 22.4113 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 803.1669 | 100 | 0.357 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 22.4113
Taille de position = 8 / 22.4113 = 0.36
Taille de position USD = 0.36 x 2250 = 810
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.36 avec un stoploss a 2272.4113
Avec un position size USD de 810$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.36 x 22.4113 = 8.07
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.07$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.36 x 56.0282 = 20.17
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.17$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.36
- Taille de position USD 810
- Perte potentielle 8.07
- Gain potentiel 20.17
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.49 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 1.32 $ | 0.16 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6222 % | 62.46 % | 38 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2250 | 2272.4113 | 2193.9718 | 2.5 | 1903.4 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2250
- Stop Loss: 2272.4113
- Take Profit: 2193.9718
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2272.4113 - 2250 = 22.4113
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2250 - 2193.9718 = 56.0282
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 56.0282 / 22.4113 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.996%
(22.4113)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.467% | 0.5R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.502% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.502% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.622% | 0.6R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.618% | 0.6R | -0.622% | 0.6R | 1.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.618% | 0.6R | -2.640% | 2.7R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.080% | 1.1R | -2.640% | 2.7R | 0.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.080% | 1.1R | -8.889% | 8.9R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.080% | 1.1R | -8.889% | 8.9R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1911 min
MAE in 1096 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.