Short Trade on PONS (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 596.48 PONS at 0.208$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2032 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2218 (6.43 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 17:15:07
hyperliquid
PONS
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 17:15
→ 22:45
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.2084$
Qty 596.4785 PONS
Size 124.3002$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.2032 (+2.5%)
TP $ 3.1$
SL 0.2218 (-6.43%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 0.39
Status
win
PnL
+2.50%
/ +3.1$
MAE -1.27%
MFE +3.70%
0.6R
expires
02 Nov 23:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241829)
#62 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 17:00
score du 02/11/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1767
Quality Score
0.366
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#62 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#62 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
balanced
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
recovering
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bearish
OK
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.42
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
5.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 17:03
02/11 17:03
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 11:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/11 15:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7664
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
28.7%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▲+0.137
Δ 4h
▲+0.176
Δ 12h
▲+0.146
Δ 24h
▼-0.057
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 48.0% |
| 1h | 78.0% |
| 4h | 26.0% |
| 24h | 10.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 48.0% | +0.00% |
| 4h | 46.0% | -0.42% |
| 24h | 20.0% | -3.36% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
2.0%
Tail ↑
+0.61
Tail ↓
+0.44
Dispersion :
0.122
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 17:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2783
Score SMA
0.2681
Rank
#46
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1000
Rank Norm SMA
0.2038
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2842 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 3.07% · r3d: 4.54% · ema21_slope: -1.8059% · dist_ema21: -15.681% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4462 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.05% · rs_3d: 4.06% · beta_24h: 3.982 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1285 | rvol_20: 0.35× · zscore_50: -1.073 · trend: -71.95% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3718 | ADX: 24.1 (weak) · Chop: 78.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 18.542% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.3661
Score SMA
0.5242
Rank
#62
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1767
Rank Norm SMA
0.4707
Calculé le
02/11/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2152 | r1h: 1.780% · r4h: -2.692% · r1d: -12.68% · r3d: -10.02% · ema21_slope: -0.4177% · dist_ema21: -6.903% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3122 | rs_1h: 1.696% · rs_4h: -2.318% · rs_1d: -11.37% · rs_3d: -10.23% · beta_24h: 4.538 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4221 | rvol_20: 0.98× · zscore_50: 0.372 · trend: 40.70% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7265 | ADX: 27.2 (trend) · Chop: 21.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.708% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.2713
Score SMA
0.4428
Rank
#62
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0643
Rank Norm SMA
0.3449
Calculé le
02/11/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0815 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -9.698% · r1d: -12.37% · r3d: -11.78% · ema21_slope: -0.2408% · dist_ema21: -11.711% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.0795 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -9.153% · rs_1d: -11.47% · rs_3d: -11.97% · beta_24h: 3.429 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6361 | rvol_20: 2.54× · zscore_50: 0.656 · trend: -0.75% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5366 | ADX: 13.4 (weak) · Chop: 47.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.1927 | ATR%: 5.422% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -6.430%
(0.0134)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.948% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.948% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.948% | 0.3R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 1.5× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +3.704% | 0.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 2.9× | 72 |
| 8h | +3.704% | 0.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 2.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +10.269% | 1.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 8.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.269% | 1.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 8.1× | 288 |
| 48h | +10.269% | 1.6R | -11.435% | 1.8R | 0.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.900% | 1.9R | -11.632% | 1.8R | 1.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 564 min
MAE in 139 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.4
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | — | — | — | — | range_high | +0.70% | -0.84 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.41 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.73% | -0.82 | 02/11 11:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
choppy 56% | late | — | — | 0.61 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.78% | -0.85 | 02/11 15:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 47% | early | — | — | 0.61 | bear_low | -1.03% | -0.65 | 02/11 16:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#482078
|
↔ | — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | — | — | — | 0.35 | 2% | ↓ -0.45 | above_value | +0.12 | inside | #227361 | — | range_high | +0.70% | -0.84 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:22
|
|
4h
#488112
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | 0.715 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late 19b -2.9ATR | — | — | 2.54 | 67% | ↓ -0.17 | below_value | -5.25 | inside | #229848 | 0.41 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.73% | -0.82 |
02/11 11:00
upd 02/11 15:19
|
|
1h
anchor #488424
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.480 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
choppy 56% | late 7b -3.5ATR | — | — | 0.49 | 33% | ↑ +0.65 | below_value | -5.61 | inside | #230043 | 0.61 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.78% | -0.85 |
02/11 15:00
upd 02/11 16:11
|
|
15m
#488702
|
↓ down | range | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.489 | expansion | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 47% | early 2b -0.8ATR | — | — | 0.73 | 92% | ↓ -0.76 | below_value | -5.78 | — | #230175 | 0.61 | bear_low | -1.03% | -0.65 |
02/11 16:45
upd 02/11 17:12
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 19b | — | 3.539×ATR | p46 | -2.865×ATR | p95 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 6.013×ATR | p94 | -3.537×ATR | p97 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.885×ATR | p12 | -0.82×ATR | p40 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.22180205
- tp_price: 0.20318025
- atr: 0.00536482
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T04:15:07+00:00
Details
- rank: 63
- total: 64
- score: 0.1427
- delta_2h: -0.0341
- extension_atr: -2.69
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1727
- confidence: 0.984
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2084 | 0.2218 | 0.2032 | 0.39 | 0.1302 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2084
- Stop Loss: 0.2218
- Take Profit: 0.2032
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2218 - 0.2084 = 0.0134
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2084 - 0.2032 = 0.0052
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0052 / 0.0134 = 0.3881
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124.3002 | 100 | 596.4785 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0134
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0134 = 597.01
Taille de position USD = 597.01 x 0.2084 = 124.42
Donc, tu peux acheter 597.01 avec un stoploss a 0.2218
Avec un position size USD de 124.42$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 597.01 x 0.0134 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 597.01 x 0.0052 = 3.1
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.1$
Résumé
- Taille de position 597.01
- Taille de position USD 124.42
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 3.1
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3881
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 3.1 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.43 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.1 $ | 2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2716 % | 19.78 % | 14 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2084 | 0.2218 | 0.2032 | 0.39 | 0.1302 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2084
- Stop Loss: 0.2218
- Take Profit: 0.2032
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2218 - 0.2084 = 0.0134
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2084 - 0.2032 = 0.0052
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0052 / 0.0134 = 0.3881
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -6.430%
(0.0134)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.948% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.948% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.948% | 0.3R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 1.5× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +3.704% | 0.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 2.9× | 72 |
| 8h | +3.704% | 0.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 2.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +10.269% | 1.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 8.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.269% | 1.6R | -1.272% | 0.2R | 8.1× | 288 |
| 48h | +10.269% | 1.6R | -11.435% | 1.8R | 0.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.900% | 1.9R | -11.632% | 1.8R | 1.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 564 min
MAE in 139 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.