Short Trade on PONS (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 590.62 PONS at 0.195$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1905 (2.51 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2089 (6.91 %)
03 Nov 2026 at 03:15:06
hyperliquid
PONS
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Nov 2026 03:15
→ 09:15
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.1954$
Qty 590.6212 PONS
Size 115.4015$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1905 (+2.51%)
TP $ 2.89$
SL 0.2089 (-6.91%)
SL $ 7.97$
RR 0.36
Status
loss
PnL
-2.16%
/ -2.49$
MAE -4.09%
MFE +2.02%
0.3R
expires
03 Nov 09:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 242668)
#61 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 03:00
score du 03/11/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1621
Quality Score
0.388
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#61 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#61 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
balanced
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
deteriorating
OK
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.10
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
9.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 03:03
03/11 03:03
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 19:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/11 01:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7704
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
35.4%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.116
Δ 4h
▲+0.259
Δ 12h
▲+0.238
Δ 24h
▲+0.243
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 46.9% |
| 1h | 85.7% |
| 4h | 44.9% |
| 24h | 14.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 46.9% | -0.01% |
| 4h | 44.9% | -0.10% |
| 24h | 20.4% | -3.22% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
4.1%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
4.1%
Tail ↑
+0.46
Tail ↓
+0.45
Dispersion :
0.081
Universe :
49
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
03/11 03:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.1217
Score SMA
0.2486
Rank
#65
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0000
Rank Norm SMA
0.1948
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0254 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -13.91% · r3d: -12.02% · ema21_slope: -1.7825% · dist_ema21: -25.558% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.0807 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -11.97% · rs_3d: -11.33% · beta_24h: 4.327 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1503 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.935 · trend: -73.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4254 | ADX: 24.2 (weak) · Chop: 72.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 21.439% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.3883
Score SMA
0.5174
Rank
#61
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1621
Rank Norm SMA
0.4407
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0198 | r1h: -2.678% · r4h: -5.040% · r1d: -16.49% · r3d: -13.65% · ema21_slope: -0.6184% · dist_ema21: -8.390% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.0397 | rs_1h: -3.004% · rs_4h: -4.896% · rs_1d: -14.86% · rs_3d: -12.99% · beta_24h: 3.329 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 7.53× · zscore_50: 6.396 · trend: 263.90% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8379 | ADX: 40.5 (trend) · Chop: 36.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.917% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.1821
Score SMA
0.4303
Rank
#64
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0397
Rank Norm SMA
0.3244
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0230 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -5.040% · r1d: -16.49% · r3d: -13.65% · ema21_slope: -0.4989% · dist_ema21: -14.804% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.0482 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -4.896% · rs_1d: -14.86% · rs_3d: -12.99% · beta_24h: 2.682 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8625 | rvol_20: 3.94× · zscore_50: 1.831 · trend: 55.33% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6450 | ADX: 17.4 (weak) · Chop: 34.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0046 | ATR%: 5.986% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -6.909%
(0.0135)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -0.599% | 0.1R | 3.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -3.393% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -3.618% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.016% | 0.3R | -4.094% | 0.6R | 0.5× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -4.094% | 0.6R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -5.650% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.170% | 0.3R | -13.726% | 2.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 48h | +2.170% | 0.3R | -19.058% | 2.8R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.864% | 1.3R | -19.058% | 2.8R | 0.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1129 min
MAE in 1424 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.78
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 44% | — | — | — | — | bear_high | -1.23% | -1.00 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.41 | bear_high | -3.78% | -0.90 | 02/11 19:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
44%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | 0.62 | bear_medium | -1.77% | -0.85 | 03/11 01:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late | — | — | 0.55 | range_low | -0.52% | -0.58 | 03/11 02:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489663
|
↔ | — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 44% | — | — | — | 0.58 | 9% | ↓ -0.37 | below_value | -5.76 | inside | #230441 | — | bear_high | -1.23% | -1.00 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:25
|
|
4h
#491040
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | 0.717 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late 21b -2.7ATR | — | — | 1.69 | 50% | ↔ +0.11 | below_value | -6.13 | inside | #231032 | 0.41 | bear_high | -3.78% | -0.90 |
02/11 19:00
upd 02/11 23:19
|
|
1h
anchor #492025
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.550 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
44%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late 17b -2.3ATR | — | — | 0.76 | 58% | ↓ -0.18 | below_value | -7.06 | inside | #231487 | 0.62 | bear_medium | -1.77% | -0.85 |
03/11 01:00
upd 03/11 02:11
|
|
15m
#492295
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.405 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late 1b -2.6ATR | — | — | 2.03 | 99% | ↑ +0.78 | below_value | -7.06 | — | #231487 | 0.55 | range_low | -0.52% | -0.58 |
03/11 02:45
upd 03/11 03:04
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 21b | — | 4.084×ATR | p63 | -2.706×ATR | p93 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 17b | — | 7.877×ATR | p98 | -2.341×ATR | p84 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 1b | — | 2.329×ATR | p53 | -2.633×ATR | p90 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.20893506
- tp_price: 0.19050525
- atr: 0.00541802
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T14:15:06+00:00
Details
- rank: 65
- total: 65
- score: 0.0178
- delta_2h: -0.0755
- extension_atr: -2.59
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1363
- confidence: 1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:15 | 0.19539000 | -0.005% |
| 2 | 04:15 | 0.19600000 | +0.307% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1954 | 0.2089 | 0.1905 | 0.36 | 0.1104 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1954
- Stop Loss: 0.2089
- Take Profit: 0.1905
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2089 - 0.1954 = 0.0135
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1954 - 0.1905 = 0.0049
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0049 / 0.0135 = 0.363
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115.4015 | 100 | 590.6212 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0135
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0135 = 592.59
Taille de position USD = 592.59 x 0.1954 = 115.79
Donc, tu peux acheter 592.59 avec un stoploss a 0.2089
Avec un position size USD de 115.79$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 592.59 x 0.0135 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 592.59 x 0.0049 = 2.9
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.9$
Résumé
- Taille de position 592.59
- Taille de position USD 115.79
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 2.9
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.363
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.51 % | 2.89 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.91 % | 7.97 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -2.49 $ | -2.16 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.0942 % | 59.26 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1954 | 0.2089 | 0.1905 | 0.36 | 0.1104 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1954
- Stop Loss: 0.2089
- Take Profit: 0.1905
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2089 - 0.1954 = 0.0135
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1954 - 0.1905 = 0.0049
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0049 / 0.0135 = 0.363
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -6.909%
(0.0135)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -0.599% | 0.1R | 3.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -3.393% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -3.618% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.016% | 0.3R | -4.094% | 0.6R | 0.5× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -4.094% | 0.6R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.016% | 0.3R | -5.650% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.170% | 0.3R | -13.726% | 2.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 48h | +2.170% | 0.3R | -19.058% | 2.8R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.864% | 1.3R | -19.058% | 2.8R | 0.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1129 min
MAE in 1424 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.