Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2679.08 XPL at 0.0617$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06021 (2.49 %) & Stop Loss: 0.06474 (4.84 %)
03 Nov 2026 at 20:15:05
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Nov 2026 20:15
→ 22:00
· 1 hour
Position
Entry 0.06175$
Qty 2679.0797 XPL
Size 165.4466$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06021 (+2.49%)
TP $ 4.13$
SL 0.06474 (-4.84%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 0.52
Status
win
PnL
+2.49%
/ +4.13$
MAE -3.54%
MFE +2.64%
0.5R
expires
04 Nov 02:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 244072)
#58 / 59
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 20:00
score du 03/11/2026 20:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0193
Quality Score
0.387
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#58 / 59
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#58 / 59
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.54×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -1.41×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc_leading
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
deteriorating
OK
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD TRADE
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bearish
OK
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-1.62
OK
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD TRADE
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
30.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 20:02
03/11 20:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3) 02/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 03/11 15:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/11 19:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7772
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
14.3%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.695
Δ 4h
▼-0.294
Δ 12h
▼-0.727
Δ 24h
▼-0.420
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 73.8% |
| 1h | 2.4% |
| 4h | 4.8% |
| 24h | 50.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 78.6% | +0.12% |
| 4h | 16.7% | -1.62% |
| 24h | 50.0% | +0.01% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
28.6%
Expansion
28.6%
Tail ↑
+0.33
Tail ↓
+0.53
Dispersion :
0.090
Universe :
42
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.74
Snapshot évalué :
03/11 20:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2363
Score SMA
0.3570
Rank
#55
/ 58
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0526
Rank Norm SMA
0.5126
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0395 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.40% · r3d: -22.71% · ema21_slope: -0.7234% · dist_ema21: -17.510% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1326 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -6.22% · rs_3d: -22.58% · beta_24h: 1.530 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5553 | rvol_20: 1.72× · zscore_50: 0.274 · trend: 56.63% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5350 | ADX: 19.1 (weak) · Chop: 53.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.754% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3872
Score SMA
0.5293
Rank
#58
/ 59
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0193
Rank Norm SMA
0.5480
Calculé le
03/11/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1658 | r1h: -1.524% · r4h: -3.228% · r1d: -6.94% · r3d: -24.12% · ema21_slope: -0.1588% · dist_ema21: -3.433% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1831 | rs_1h: -1.256% · rs_4h: -2.447% · rs_1d: -7.09% · rs_3d: -23.59% · beta_24h: 1.906 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5484 | rvol_20: 2.03× · zscore_50: 0.398 · trend: 7.41% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6801 | ADX: 34.7 (trend) · Chop: 51.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.984% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3080
Score SMA
0.5118
Rank
#59
/ 59
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0086
Rank Norm SMA
0.6069
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1503 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.269% · r1d: -5.40% · r3d: -22.71% · ema21_slope: -0.8245% · dist_ema21: -8.782% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2316 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.069% · rs_1d: -6.22% · rs_3d: -22.58% · beta_24h: 0.219 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2508 | rvol_20: 0.59× · zscore_50: -0.036 · trend: -21.05% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7212 | ADX: 39.7 (trend) · Chop: 51.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4663 | ATR%: 4.601% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.842%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.730% | 0.4R | -0.345% | 0.1R | 5.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -0.345% | 0.1R | 7.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -1.192% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.638% | 0.5R | -3.542% | 0.7R | 0.7× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -4.575% | 0.9R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -4.800% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -8.980% | 1.9R | 0.3× | 288 |
| 48h | +8.505% | 1.8R | -8.980% | 1.9R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.753% | 1.8R | -8.980% | 1.9R | 1.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 104 min
MAE in 839 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 4.45
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.53 | range_high | -0.41% | -0.96 | 02/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -2.83% | -0.99 | 03/11 15:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.49 | range_medium | -0.70% | -0.29 | 03/11 19:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.60 | range_low | -0.26% | -0.12 | 03/11 19:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#497958
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.386 | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late 39b -1.9ATR | near -1.4ATR | — | 1.72 | 89% | ↑ +0.43 | below_value | -9.03 | — | #233854 | 0.53 | range_high | -0.41% | -0.96 |
02/11 19:00
upd 03/11 19:22
|
|
4h
#497838
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.476 | normal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 16b -2.5ATR | — | — | 0.59 | 84% | ↓ -0.32 | below_value | -9.03 | inside | #233854 | 0.54 | bear_high | -2.83% | -0.99 |
03/11 15:00
upd 03/11 19:15
|
|
1h
anchor #498222
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | 0.728 | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late 3b -1.8ATR | near -0.5ATR | — | 2.03 | 87% | ↑ +0.38 | below_value | -9.36 | inside | #234033 | 0.49 | range_medium | -0.70% | -0.29 |
03/11 19:00
upd 03/11 20:10
|
|
15m
#498160
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.608 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late 3b -2.1ATR | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.23 | 27% | ↑ +0.32 | below_value | -9.03 | — | #233854 | 0.60 | range_low | -0.26% | -0.12 |
03/11 19:45
upd 03/11 20:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 39b | — | 8.473×ATR | p100 | -1.891×ATR | p94 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 16b | — | 8.078×ATR | p100 | -2.496×ATR | p98 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 2.387×ATR | p52 | -1.801×ATR | p81 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 1.982×ATR | p29 | -2.06×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.0647411
- tp_price: 0.06021112
- atr: 0.00119444
- expires_at: 2026-11-04T07:15:05+00:00
Details
- rank: 61
- total: 61
- score: 0.1464
- delta_2h: -0.0977
- extension_atr: -1.82
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0193
- confidence: 1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:15 | 0.06175500 | +0.008% |
| 2 | 21:15 | 0.06150900 | -0.39% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06175 | 0.06474 | 0.06021 | 0.52 | 0.04432 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06175
- Stop Loss: 0.06474
- Take Profit: 0.06021
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06474 - 0.06175 = 0.00299
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06175 - 0.06021 = 0.00154
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00154 / 0.00299 = 0.5151
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165.4466 | 100 | 2679.0797 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00299
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00299 = 2675.59
Taille de position USD = 2675.59 x 0.06175 = 165.22
Donc, tu peux acheter 2675.59 avec un stoploss a 0.06474
Avec un position size USD de 165.22$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2675.59 x 0.00299 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2675.59 x 0.00154 = 4.12
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.12$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2675.59
- Taille de position USD 165.22
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.12
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5151
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.49 % | 4.13 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.84 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.13 $ | 2.49 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3449 % | 7.12 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06175 | 0.06474 | 0.06021 | 0.52 | 0.04432 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06175
- Stop Loss: 0.06474
- Take Profit: 0.06021
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06474 - 0.06175 = 0.00299
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06175 - 0.06021 = 0.00154
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00154 / 0.00299 = 0.5151
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.842%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.730% | 0.4R | -0.345% | 0.1R | 5.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -0.345% | 0.1R | 7.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -1.192% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.638% | 0.5R | -3.542% | 0.7R | 0.7× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -4.575% | 0.9R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -4.800% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.638% | 0.5R | -8.980% | 1.9R | 0.3× | 288 |
| 48h | +8.505% | 1.8R | -8.980% | 1.9R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.753% | 1.8R | -8.980% | 1.9R | 1.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 104 min
MAE in 839 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.