03 Nov 2026 at 21:13:00 hyperliquid

Short Trade on CRV (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1525.7 CRV at 0.258$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2453 (5.07 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2636 (2.01 %)

CRV SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 03 Nov 2026 21:13 → 00:45 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 0.2584$

Qty 1525.6956 CRV

Size 394.194$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 0.2453 (+5.07%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.2636 (-2.01%)

SL $ 7.93$

RR 2.52

Status loss PnL -2.01% / -7.93$ MAE -5.65% MFE +2.58% 1.3R expires 04 Nov 09:12

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 244099)
#31 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 21:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4067

Quality Score
0.504
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#31 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#31 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h near -2.40×ATR
1d near -0.12×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
4.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 21:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

02/11 19:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

03/11 15:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

03/11 20:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7776
Voir snapshot →
bear developing bear_expansion
Strategic bear

0.55

expansion

+2

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical range

0.25

transition

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.57
Transition risk : 0.43
Score contribution (this trade) +3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 8.9%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.054
Δ 4h
▼-0.667
Δ 12h
▼-0.752
Δ 24h
▼-0.085

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 84.4%
1h 4.4%
4h 2.2%
24h 51.1%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 71.1% +0.17%
4h 13.3% -2.60%
24h 55.6% +0.02%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
48.9%
Expansion
48.9%
Tail ↑
+0.48
Tail ↓
+0.82
Dispersion : 0.124
Universe : 45 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.74
Snapshot évalué : 03/11 21:01 · env bear_trend

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 03/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2116
Score SMA
0.2593
Rank
#57 / 58
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0175
Rank Norm SMA
0.1565
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.0952 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.53% · r3d: -7.84% · ema21_slope: -1.1098% · dist_ema21: -18.819%
Force Relative 25% 0.2018 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.35% · rs_3d: -7.71% · beta_24h: 2.199
Volume 20% 0.1423 rvol_20: 0.43× · zscore_50: -1.137 · trend: -36.43%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6942 ADX: 23.3 (weak) · Chop: 35.4 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.321% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 03/11/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.5043
Score SMA
0.4570
Rank
#31 / 60
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4067
Rank Norm SMA
0.2321
Calculé le
03/11/2026 21:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3699 r1h: 0.451% · r4h: -2.154% · r1d: -1.49% · r3d: -8.55% · ema21_slope: -0.0853% · dist_ema21: -1.462%
Force Relative 25% 0.4271 rs_1h: 0.720% · rs_4h: -1.041% · rs_1d: -1.37% · rs_3d: -7.68% · beta_24h: 0.746
Volume 20% 0.3805 rvol_20: 0.86× · zscore_50: -0.161 · trend: 50.78%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7361 ADX: 34.0 (trend) · Chop: 44.1 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.473% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 03/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4444
Score SMA
0.3999
Rank
#44 / 59
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1983
Rank Norm SMA
0.1696
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2303 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.241% · r1d: -1.53% · r3d: -7.84% · ema21_slope: -0.5265% · dist_ema21: -4.613%
Force Relative 25% 0.2870 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.041% · rs_1d: -2.35% · rs_3d: -7.71% · beta_24h: 1.534
Volume 20% 0.4384 rvol_20: 1.88× · zscore_50: -0.034 · trend: -35.60%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7726 ADX: 45.9 (trend) · Chop: 51.8 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.583% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.012% (0.0052)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.577% 1.3R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.577% 1.3R -0.205% 0.1R 12.6× 24
4h +2.577% 1.3R -2.469% 1.2R 1.0× 48
8h +2.577% 1.3R -3.409% 1.7R 0.8× 96
12h ★ +2.577% 1.3R -5.650% 2.8R 0.5× 144
24h +2.577% 1.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.3× 288
36h +2.577% 1.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.3× 432
48h +4.582% 2.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.5× 576
72h +4.582% 2.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 47 min MAE in 807 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.82
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate fading compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 50% late near -0.1ATR — 0.64 range_high -0.41% -0.95 02/11 19:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading compression bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 44% late near -2.4ATR — 0.50 bear_high -2.83% -0.77 03/11 15:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
49%
noisy_chop 37% early — near -0.1ATR 0.44 bear_medium -0.95% -0.27 03/11 20:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 39% mid — — 0.56 range_low -0.48% +0.09 03/11 20:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#497889
↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.417 compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 50% late 12b -2.7ATR near -0.1ATR — 0.43 43% ↓ -0.45 value -7.20 — #233822 0.64 range_high -0.41% -0.95
02/11 19:00
upd 03/11 19:18
4h
#497774
↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading 0.748 compression bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 44% late 26b -2.1ATR near -2.4ATR — 1.88 54% ↑ +0.24 value -7.20 inside #233822 0.50 bear_high -2.83% -0.77
03/11 15:00
upd 03/11 19:12
1h anchor
#498500
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive 0.411 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
49%
noisy_chop 37% early 1b -0.9ATR — near -0.1ATR 0.86 53% ↑ +0.68 below_value -7.32 inside #234121 0.44 bear_medium -0.95% -0.27
03/11 20:00
upd 03/11 21:10
15m
#498439
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive 0.258 volatile_reversal bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 39% mid 6b -0.3ATR — — 0.21 41% ↓ -0.34 below_value -7.76 — #234000 0.56 range_low -0.48% +0.09
03/11 20:45
upd 03/11 21:01
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 12b — 6.12×ATR p80 -2.683×ATR p96
4h ↓ down late 26b — 4.598×ATR p64 -2.063×ATR p90
1h ↑ up early 1b — 1.521×ATR p2 -0.916×ATR p52
15m ↑ up mid 6b — 2.47×ATR p51 -0.311×ATR p23

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.8112
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.64×ATR dur=24b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.26361351
  5. tp_price: 0.24526122
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.81120672871198
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-11-04T14:12:51.779029
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.81120672871198
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.0082
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0063
  15. micro_price : 0.25731077
  16. spread_pct : 0.07773
  17. mid_price : 0.2574
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.256
  19. bid_wall_size : 1464668.2
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.258
  22. ask_wall_size : 1107136
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.0125
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0096
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7233
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.26619
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.26032
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.263255
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793674800
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793757600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    1.6373
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    24
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: forming
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8112
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793750400
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.26032
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8333
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    2
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.5439
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    3
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    6
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.0035851
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
24
inside_close_ratio
0.8333
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5439

Signaux confirmants (21)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 21:13 0.25837000 -0.012%
2 21:20 0.25837000 -0.012%
3 21:26 0.25837000 -0.012%
4 21:34 0.25571000 -1.041%
5 21:40 0.25571000 -1.041%
6 21:46 0.25571000 -1.041%
7 21:52 0.25571000 -1.041%
8 21:59 0.25571000 -1.041%
9 22:07 0.25475000 -1.413%
10 22:13 0.25475000 -1.413%
11 22:19 0.25475000 -1.413%
12 22:25 0.25475000 -1.413%
13 22:32 0.25475000 -1.413%
14 22:39 0.25575000 -1.026%
15 22:45 0.25575000 -1.026%
16 22:51 0.25575000 -1.026%
17 22:57 0.25575000 -1.026%
18 23:06 0.25651000 -0.731%
19 23:14 0.25651000 -0.731%
20 23:21 0.25651000 -0.731%
21 23:27 0.25651000 -0.731%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7233ms Confidence avant OB : 81% → 81%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.008
avg 0.013 ± 0.010
OBI Top 10 0.006

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.2574
Micro Price
0.2573
Spread
0.0777%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.2560
Size
1,464,668.20

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.2580
Size
1,107,136.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2584 0.2636 0.2453 2.52 0.2043
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2584
  • Stop Loss: 0.2636
  • Take Profit: 0.2453

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2636 - 0.2584 = 0.0052

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2584 - 0.2453 = 0.0131

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0131 / 0.0052 = 2.5192

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
394.194 100 1525.6956 4.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0052

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0052 = 1538.46

Taille de position USD = 1538.46 x 0.2584 = 397.54

Donc, tu peux acheter 1538.46 avec un stoploss a 0.2636

Avec un position size USD de 397.54$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1538.46 x 0.0052 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1538.46 x 0.0131 = 20.15

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.15$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1538.46
  • Taille de position USD 397.54
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.15
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5192

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
5.07 % 19.99 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.01 % 7.93 $
PNL PNL %
-7.93 $ -2.01
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.144 % 106.54 % 4
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2584 0.2636 0.2453 2.52 0.2043
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2584
  • Stop Loss: 0.2636
  • Take Profit: 0.2453

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2636 - 0.2584 = 0.0052

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2584 - 0.2453 = 0.0131

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0131 / 0.0052 = 2.5192

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2453
            [entry_price] => 0.2584
            [stop_loss] => 0.26412
            [rr_ratio] => 2.29
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 05:50:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2453
            [entry_price] => 0.2584
            [stop_loss] => 0.26464
            [rr_ratio] => 2.1
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 05:50:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2453
            [entry_price] => 0.2584
            [stop_loss] => 0.26516
            [rr_ratio] => 1.94
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 06:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.012% (0.0052)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.577% 1.3R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.577% 1.3R -0.205% 0.1R 12.6× 24
4h +2.577% 1.3R -2.469% 1.2R 1.0× 48
8h +2.577% 1.3R -3.409% 1.7R 0.8× 96
12h ★ +2.577% 1.3R -5.650% 2.8R 0.5× 144
24h +2.577% 1.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.3× 288
36h +2.577% 1.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.3× 432
48h +4.582% 2.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.5× 576
72h +4.582% 2.3R -9.133% 4.5R 0.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 47 min MAE in 807 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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