03 Nov 2026 at 21:13:16 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LINK (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 34.3 LINK at 10.882$ per unit. Take profit: 10.2989 (5.36 %) & Stop Loss: 11.1152 (2.14 %)

LINK SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 03 Nov 2026 21:13 → 02:25 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 10.882$

Qty 34.3015 LINK

Size 373.2689$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 10.2989 (+5.36%)

TP $ 20$

SL 11.1152 (-2.14%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.14% / -8$ MAE -3.33% MFE +2.38% 1.1R expires 04 Nov 09:13

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 244100)
#11 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 21:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1966

Quality Score
0.575
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#11 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.14 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#11 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.14 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.97×ATR
4h clear 1.95×ATR
1d clear 3.74×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
7.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 21:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

02/11 19:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

03/11 15:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

03/11 20:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7776
Voir snapshot →
bear developing bear_expansion
Strategic bear

0.55

expansion

+2

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical range

0.25

transition

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.57
Transition risk : 0.43
Score contribution (this trade) +3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 8.9%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.054
Δ 4h
▼-0.667
Δ 12h
▼-0.752
Δ 24h
▼-0.085

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 84.4%
1h 4.4%
4h 2.2%
24h 51.1%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 71.1% +0.17%
4h 13.3% -2.60%
24h 55.6% +0.02%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
48.9%
Expansion
48.9%
Tail ↑
+0.48
Tail ↓
+0.82
Dispersion : 0.124
Universe : 45 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.74
Snapshot évalué : 03/11 21:01 · env bear_trend

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 03/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2902
Score SMA
0.3469
Rank
#39 / 58
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3333
Rank Norm SMA
0.5409
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.1878 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.83% · r3d: -5.37% · ema21_slope: -0.5748% · dist_ema21: -6.301%
Force Relative 25% 0.3817 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.65% · rs_3d: -5.24% · beta_24h: 1.696
Volume 20% 0.2233 rvol_20: 0.69× · zscore_50: -0.608 · trend: -24.52%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6250 ADX: 27.0 (trend) · Chop: 50.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 6.055% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 03/11/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.5750
Score SMA
0.5389
Rank
#11 / 60
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1966
Rank Norm SMA
0.6442
Calculé le
03/11/2026 21:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3710 r1h: -0.623% · r4h: -2.647% · r1d: -2.11% · r3d: -6.51% · ema21_slope: -0.0582% · dist_ema21: -2.097%
Force Relative 25% 0.3813 rs_1h: -0.354% · rs_4h: -1.534% · rs_1d: -2.00% · rs_3d: -5.65% · beta_24h: 1.053
Volume 20% 0.8454 rvol_20: 3.04× · zscore_50: 1.738 · trend: 47.17%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6621 ADX: 19.4 (weak) · Chop: 36.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.983% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 03/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4226
Score SMA
0.5201
Rank
#51 / 59
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1638
Rank Norm SMA
0.7102
Calculé le
03/11/2026 19:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3660 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.235% · r1d: -0.83% · r3d: -5.37% · ema21_slope: -0.1814% · dist_ema21: -2.030%
Force Relative 25% 0.4320 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.036% · rs_1d: -1.65% · rs_3d: -5.24% · beta_24h: 0.706
Volume 20% 0.2084 rvol_20: 0.54× · zscore_50: -0.280 · trend: -33.97%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4205 ADX: 15.9 (weak) · Chop: 64.4 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.966% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.143% (0.2332)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.380% 1.1R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.380% 1.1R -0.165% 0.1R 14.4× 24
4h +2.380% 1.1R -1.866% 0.9R 1.3× 48
8h +2.380% 1.1R -3.327% 1.6R 0.7× 96
12h ★ +2.380% 1.1R -3.327% 1.6R 0.7× 144
24h +2.380% 1.1R -8.362% 3.9R 0.3× 288
36h +2.380% 1.1R -8.362% 3.9R 0.3× 432
48h +3.510% 1.6R -8.362% 3.9R 0.4× 576
72h +3.510% 1.6R -8.362% 3.9R 0.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 46 min MAE in 786 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.73
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
51%
noisy_chop 42% late — — 0.81 range_high -0.41% -0.58 02/11 19:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 44% mid — — 0.77 bear_high -2.83% -0.44 03/11 15:00
1h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
54%
noisy_chop 42% late — — 0.77 bear_medium -0.95% -0.25 03/11 20:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind volatile_reversal bear_medium_confirmed
52%
noisy_chop 48% late — — 0.80 range_low -0.48% -0.12 03/11 20:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#497893
↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.662 compression bear_high
51%
noisy_chop 42% late 35b -1.1ATR — — 0.69 50% ↔ +0.05 above_value -0.99 — #233823 0.81 range_high -0.41% -0.58
02/11 19:00
upd 03/11 19:18
4h
#497776
↓ down range range moderate grind 0.369 compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 44% mid 18b -1.3ATR — — 0.54 29% ↔ -0.03 above_value -0.99 — #233823 0.77 bear_high -2.83% -0.44
03/11 15:00
upd 03/11 19:12
1h anchor
#498501
↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.392 expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
54%
noisy_chop 42% late 4b -2.0ATR — — 3.04 93% ↔ +0.04 value -2.53 — #234122 0.77 bear_medium -0.95% -0.25
03/11 20:00
upd 03/11 21:10
15m
#498440
↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.500 volatile_reversal bear_medium_confirmed
52%
noisy_chop 48% late 3b -1.8ATR — — 0.18 25% ↑ +0.36 value -1.96 — #234001 0.80 range_low -0.48% -0.12
03/11 20:45
upd 03/11 21:01
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 35b — 7.116×ATR p81 -1.14×ATR p63
4h ↓ down mid 18b — 4.217×ATR p44 -1.254×ATR p65
1h ↓ down late 4b — 3.131×ATR p58 -2.004×ATR p87
15m ↓ down late 3b — 1.454×ATR p0 -1.786×ATR p93

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7887
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.62×ATR dur=34b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 11.11522599
  5. tp_price: 10.29893502
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.78866382191334
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-11-04T14:13:09.013790
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.78866382191334
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.0253
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0253
  15. micro_price : 10.85365639
  16. spread_pct : 0.009214
  17. mid_price : 10.8535
  18. bid_wall_price : 10.8
  19. bid_wall_size : 184025.6
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price :
  22. ask_wall_size :
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0449
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0151
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6864
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.1
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    11.188
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    11.022
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    11.105
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793638800
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793757600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    1.6233
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    34
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7887
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793750400
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    11.022
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8235
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    2
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.3691
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    6
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    10
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.10225992
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
34
inside_close_ratio
0.8235
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3691

Signaux confirmants (12)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 21:13 10.88200000 0%
2 21:20 10.88200000 0%
3 21:27 10.88200000 0%
4 00:08 10.95500000 +0.671%
5 00:14 10.95500000 +0.671%
6 00:21 10.95500000 +0.671%
7 00:27 10.95500000 +0.671%
8 00:35 10.92800000 +0.423%
9 00:42 10.92800000 +0.423%
10 00:48 10.92800000 +0.423%
11 00:54 10.92800000 +0.423%
12 01:01 10.92800000 +0.423%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6864ms Confidence avant OB : 79% → 79%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.025
avg -0.045 ± 0.015
OBI Top 10 -0.025

Microstructure

Mid Price
10.8535
Micro Price
10.8537
Spread
0.0092%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
10.8000
Size
184,025.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
10.882 11.1152 10.2989 2.5 9.2977
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 10.882
  • Stop Loss: 11.1152
  • Take Profit: 10.2989

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 11.1152 - 10.882 = 0.2332

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 10.882 - 10.2989 = 0.5831

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.5831 / 0.2332 = 2.5004

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
373.2689 100 34.3015 4.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.2332

Taille de position = 8 / 0.2332 = 34.31

Taille de position USD = 34.31 x 10.882 = 373.36

Donc, tu peux acheter 34.31 avec un stoploss a 11.1152

Avec un position size USD de 373.36$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 34.31 x 0.2332 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 34.31 x 0.5831 = 20.01

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 34.31
  • Taille de position USD 373.36
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.01
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5004

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
5.36 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.14 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -2.14
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.2147 % 103.35 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
10.882 11.1152 10.2989 2.5 9.2977
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 10.882
  • Stop Loss: 11.1152
  • Take Profit: 10.2989

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 11.1152 - 10.882 = 0.2332

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 10.882 - 10.2989 = 0.5831

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.5831 / 0.2332 = 2.5004

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 10.2989
            [entry_price] => 10.882
            [stop_loss] => 11.13852
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 07:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 10.2989
            [entry_price] => 10.882
            [stop_loss] => 11.16184
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 07:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 10.2989
            [entry_price] => 10.882
            [stop_loss] => 11.18516
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 08:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.143% (0.2332)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.380% 1.1R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.380% 1.1R -0.165% 0.1R 14.4× 24
4h +2.380% 1.1R -1.866% 0.9R 1.3× 48
8h +2.380% 1.1R -3.327% 1.6R 0.7× 96
12h ★ +2.380% 1.1R -3.327% 1.6R 0.7× 144
24h +2.380% 1.1R -8.362% 3.9R 0.3× 288
36h +2.380% 1.1R -8.362% 3.9R 0.3× 432
48h +3.510% 1.6R -8.362% 3.9R 0.4× 576
72h +3.510% 1.6R -8.362% 3.9R 0.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 46 min MAE in 786 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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