Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 123.82 AVAX at 6.398$ per unit. Take profit: 6.2363 (2.52 %) & Stop Loss: 6.4624 (1.01 %)
31 Jul 2026 at 17:06:42
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
31 Jul 2026 17:06
→ 05:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 6.3978$
Qty 123.8236 AVAX
Size 792.1986$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 6.2363 (+2.52%)
TP $ 20$
SL 6.4624 (-1.01%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.43%
/ +3.42$
MAE -0.78%
MFE +0.82%
0.8R
expires
01 Aug 05:06
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 54892)
#30 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 31/07/2026 17:00
score du 31/07/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4974
Quality Score
0.479
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#30 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#30 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.75×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.86×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
31/07 17:00
31/07 17:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 31/07 16:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 31/07 16:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1197
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
— |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.53
Snapshot évalué :
31/07 17:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
31/07/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.4792
Score SMA
0.5059
Rank
#30
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4974
Rank Norm SMA
0.4354
Calculé le
31/07/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4825 | r1h: 0.036% · r4h: 0.080% · r1d: -0.47% · r3d: -2.40% · ema21_slope: -0.0199% · dist_ema21: -0.235% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5172 | rs_1h: -0.018% · rs_4h: -0.115% · rs_1d: 2.27% · rs_3d: -0.96% · beta_24h: 0.751 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1766 | rvol_20: 0.23× · zscore_50: -0.740 · trend: -30.56% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4653 | ADX: 8.8 (weak) · Chop: 51.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.813% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.010%
(0.0646)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.191% | 0.2R | -0.350% | 0.4R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.208% | 0.2R | -0.350% | 0.4R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.305% | 0.3R | -0.350% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.305% | 0.3R | -0.733% | 0.7R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.821% | 0.8R | -0.778% | 0.8R | 1.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.621% | 5.6R | -0.778% | 0.8R | 7.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.96
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.77 | bear_high | -6.38% | -0.05 | 30/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | — | near -0.1ATR | 0.71 | bear_high | -2.02% | -0.08 | 31/07 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | range_high |
35%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.64 | bear_medium | -1.75% | +0.24 | 31/07 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | range_low |
41%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early | — | near 0.5ATR | — | bear_low | -1.05% | +0.01 | 31/07 16:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 27b | — | 2.294×ATR | p0 | -0.153×ATR | p19 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 16b | — | 1.083×ATR | p0 | -0.169×ATR | p18 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 1.699×ATR | p5 | -0.156×ATR | p19 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 1.285×ATR | p0 | -0.385×ATR | p43 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.806
- reason: down_bo width=1.97×ATR dur=34b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 6.46240804
- tp_price: 6.23627989
- atr:
- score: 0.80597437414277
- expires_at: 2026-08-01T09:06:34.303170
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80597437414277
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.019
- obi_top10 : -0.1609
- micro_price : 6.39974006
- spread_pct : 0.015627
- mid_price : 6.3995
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 6.46
- ask_wall_size : 106154.1
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0188
- obi_top5_std : 0.0003
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7070
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
6.5075
- balance_zone_bottom:
6.40715
- balance_zone_mid:
6.457325
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785412800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785531600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9742
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
34
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.806
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785528000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
6.40715
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8529
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1839
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
12
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.05083045 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
34
inside_close_ratio
0.8529
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1839
Signaux confirmants (37)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:06 | 6.39780000 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:12 | 6.39780000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:07 | 6.38790000 | -0.155% |
| 4 | 18:12 | 6.38790000 | -0.155% |
| 5 | 18:18 | 6.40360000 | +0.091% |
| 6 | 18:24 | 6.40360000 | +0.091% |
| 7 | 18:30 | 6.40360000 | +0.091% |
| 8 | 18:48 | 6.40580000 | +0.125% |
| 9 | 18:54 | 6.40580000 | +0.125% |
| 10 | 19:00 | 6.40580000 | +0.125% |
| 11 | 19:06 | 6.38450000 | -0.208% |
| 12 | 19:12 | 6.38450000 | -0.208% |
| 13 | 19:18 | 6.38870000 | -0.142% |
| 14 | 19:24 | 6.38870000 | -0.142% |
| 15 | 19:30 | 6.38870000 | -0.142% |
| 16 | 19:36 | 6.39140000 | -0.1% |
| 17 | 19:42 | 6.39140000 | -0.1% |
| 18 | 19:48 | 6.38740000 | -0.163% |
| 19 | 19:54 | 6.38740000 | -0.163% |
| 20 | 20:01 | 6.38740000 | -0.163% |
| 21 | 20:06 | 6.38960000 | -0.128% |
| 22 | 20:12 | 6.38960000 | -0.128% |
| 23 | 20:18 | 6.39770000 | -0.002% |
| 24 | 20:24 | 6.39770000 | -0.002% |
| 25 | 20:30 | 6.39770000 | -0.002% |
| 26 | 20:36 | 6.39030000 | -0.117% |
| 27 | 20:42 | 6.39030000 | -0.117% |
| 28 | 20:48 | 6.39290000 | -0.077% |
| 29 | 20:54 | 6.39290000 | -0.077% |
| 30 | 21:00 | 6.39290000 | -0.077% |
| 31 | 21:06 | 6.39340000 | -0.069% |
| 32 | 21:12 | 6.39340000 | -0.069% |
| 33 | 21:18 | 6.39790000 | +0.002% |
| 34 | 21:24 | 6.39790000 | +0.002% |
| 35 | 21:30 | 6.39790000 | +0.002% |
| 36 | 21:36 | 6.40550000 | +0.12% |
| 37 | 21:42 | 6.40550000 | +0.12% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7070ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.019
avg 0.019
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
-0.161
Microstructure
Mid Price
6.3995
Micro Price
6.3997
Spread
0.0156%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
6.4600
Size
106,154.10
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3978 | 6.4624 | 6.2363 | 2.5 | 8.2462 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3978
- Stop Loss: 6.4624
- Take Profit: 6.2363
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4624 - 6.3978 = 0.0646
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3978 - 6.2363 = 0.1615
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1615 / 0.0646 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 792.1986 | 100 | 123.8236 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0646
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0646 = 123.84
Taille de position USD = 123.84 x 6.3978 = 792.3
Donc, tu peux acheter 123.84 avec un stoploss a 6.4624
Avec un position size USD de 792.3$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 123.84 x 0.0646 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 123.84 x 0.1615 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 123.84
- Taille de position USD 792.3
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.52 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.01 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.42 $ | 0.43 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7784 % | 77.09 % | 19 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3978 | 6.4624 | 6.2363 | 2.5 | 8.2462 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3978
- Stop Loss: 6.4624
- Take Profit: 6.2363
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4624 - 6.3978 = 0.0646
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3978 - 6.2363 = 0.1615
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1615 / 0.0646 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.010%
(0.0646)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.191% | 0.2R | -0.350% | 0.4R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.208% | 0.2R | -0.350% | 0.4R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.305% | 0.3R | -0.350% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.305% | 0.3R | -0.733% | 0.7R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.821% | 0.8R | -0.778% | 0.8R | 1.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.621% | 5.6R | -0.778% | 0.8R | 7.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.